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Jun 16 4 tweets 1 min read
不起早的行情分享 #Bitcoin #ETH #BTCUSDT

1/ 从盘面看,日线级别成交量放大,但并没有收更低更长的阴线,证明需求开始出现,顺着消息面"75个基点更符合预期"和"无需预期75个基点会常态化"的论调,价格也顺着往上推高了。但一切都太顺理成章,反而有些隐隐地不安。
2/ 目前反弹已到0.236的位置,即使再能往上冲,最多也只看到0.382($24700)的位置,但现阶段已有些动能不足
3/ 在华尔街的助力下,美股也有一股反弹。不过对比前几次加息,经常发生加息当天股票捧场反弹而后该跌还是跌的剧本。这次剧本有没有变?且看看明天标普能否重新站稳3800。
4/ 担心抄底失败(短线)的小伙伴,也无需太忧虑。明天是四巫日,4类衍生品同时到期,市场可能还会大幅震荡。
但切记,现在任何的价格往上都只是反弹,不是反转。别...梭...哈...

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More from @OxMomooo

Jun 17
不是日更,想更就更之行情分享:

1/ 昨天有说美股会不会作妖,加息当日配合表演后第二天马上翻脸,现在看来似乎还是这个剧本。
而BTC与美股的相关性从高位短暂脱钩至0.2后又恢复至0.7,咱们可以不随涨,但肯定随跌,而且跌更凶。 Image
2/ 上图来自于用 @Footprint_DeFi 自己搭的dashboard,用来跟踪与传统市场的趋势变化和相关性,两年期与十年期美债收益率和利差也画上了,而收益率曲线倒挂向来是关注经济衰退的重要指标。
终于实现一个dashboard看完所有,不用到处跳着找数据,简直不要太好用
footprint.network/@Momo/Analysis… Image
3/ 目前行情又进入新的小箱体震荡,突破箱体前建议少操作了。当然技艺精湛的,想做更小时间级别的,也是可以 ,设好止损。
老实说,这段时间来,做得最多的是,盯盘复盘,然后控制做交易的冲动。 Image
Read 4 tweets
May 16
UST的崩盘事件,似乎已尘埃落定,而此轮崩盘事件中个人是有成功避险的(为没能成功躲过的小伙伴默哀~),透明的链上数据让暗阻变成明阻,及时去观测关键的链上数据,就能让我们躲过这场阻击。

从每次跌倒中学习,才是我们的成长之路哈哈
1/n 之前有分析过UST与LUNA的死亡螺旋问题,有兴趣可以看这里footprint.network/@Momo/UST-VS-L…
这场崩盘最早起于Curve上UST的失衡,从而引发UST脱锚的担忧,继而产生其它连锁反应;
而最早在5-7其实已能观测到数据异常,直到5-9下午前,你都还有足够的逃生机会;
2/n 从流入流出Curve的净资金流,也能发现端倪,背后是巨鲸与LFG的博弈,巨鲸砸盘而LFG为保持平衡而撤走的流动性。
Read 6 tweets

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