Duncan Lamont Profile picture
Jun 16, 2022 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/6 Four perils for #PrivateEquity today-or are they?

1. Recessions are bad, right?

Nope. Funds raised in recession years have done very well. Capital is deployed over several years so get to pick up assets at beaten up prices, and sell later in recovery phase

#SuperReturn
2/6
2. Stagflation is worse though?

For some sectors yes but not all (based on analysis of public market sectors). Some could do well

- healthcare
- consumer durables
- anything that can save companies money (e.g. some business services)
3/6
3. Closure of exit windows (IPOs, corporate M&A) is a challenge

But could lead to a rise in secondaries. Both GP-led (where sell to another vehicle run by the same GP), and traditional LP-led (where an LP sells their stake to another LP) likely to rise
4/6
4. Will fundraising excesses come home to roost?

Risk for some areas-especially late stage venture, where $$$ raised has been 🔥

-> led to nearly 10x increase in late stage company valuations in last 5yrs 😬

Early stage fundraising more contained, valuation rise less nuts
5/6
Similar story for buyouts. Large buyout fundraising ran hot but small/mid buyouts didn’t

-> small buyout valuations have been more stable
6/6
Private equity isn’t immune to forces buffeting public markets

But some parts of the industry could prove more resilient, and may even thrive

Read on for more details:
schroders.com/en/uk/tp/marke…

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More from @DuncanLamont2

Jun 13, 2023
1/n What does the equity risk premium tell us about the prospects for equities vs bonds?

A chart 🧵 of pros/cons/messages

3 different approaches:

1️⃣ historical

2️⃣ simple: yield gap

3️⃣ more involved: what’s priced in?

Full article here: schroders.com/en-gb/uk/inter…
2/n

1️⃣historical = how much have equities outperformed bonds over the v. long term

For the US = 4.5% over past 150 years

Job done? Not so fast Image
3/n Not all markets have the same lengthy data as the US so hostage to what’s available

For US: 91yr ERP = 6.7%, 93yr ERP = 4.4%

Big diff for small change

For some ex-US markets you maybe only have a few decades, so vulnerable to change as more data emerges Image
Read 15 tweets
Jun 12, 2023
🔔 The 8 charts you need to see on credit/corporate bond markets this month

1️⃣ KILLER CHART: spreads are unusually stable in the face of the sharp tightening in bank lending conditions

📊 from our latest monthly Credit Lens chart pack schroders.com/en-gb/uk/inter… Image
2️⃣/8 IG spreads cheaper than HY

GBP/EUR spreads cheaper than USD Image
3️⃣/8 Longer maturity corp bonds offer little or no yield pickup over shorter maturity bonds Image
Read 8 tweets
Feb 21, 2023
💥1/9: UK housing affordability since the year 1876 (UPDATED to 2022)

Average house~9x average earnings

Here’s a chart-thread of my research, as covered by:

@Bloomberg @Telegraph, @thisismoney, @TheSun, @guardian

Full article: schroders.com/en/insights/ec…

#houseprices #property
2/9 Last time UK houses were so expensive vs earnings was the year 1876

They were even more expensive previously…

What happened to change things? More houses, smaller houses, higher incomes.
3/9 Most people didn’t really benefit though, as over 75% rented at that time. Home ownership didn’t take off until 2nd half of 20th century.

Note the reversal post-2001. Home ownership becoming less attainable
Read 9 tweets
Oct 31, 2022
1/9 Why does high GDP growth ≠ high stock market returns?

1. Valuations - high growth may be already priced in via high valuations, similar to growth stocks vs value

2. The stock market is not the economy

1st is obvious (even if regularly forgotten)

2nd is worth diving into
2/9
GDP growth/corp earnings per share growth relationship like a watered-down cocktail

Gets less pure at every level

Last one key for China

Net effect huge (analysis from 2017 but still valid)

20yr EPS growth lagged GDP growth by average of 3.1% pa in EM

Much more in China
3/9 Why?

1. GDP may suffer from measurement issues

2. Corp profits in national accounts can grow faster/slower than GDP if profit margins are increasing/contracting

3. Sectoral and geographic distribution of stock market doesn’t match the economy.

This is a big one…
Read 9 tweets
Jun 15, 2022
1/4 Could/should private credit trade on tighter credit spreads than corp bonds?

If going into enviro when default risk 📈

- is ability to take action to mitigate your risk of default loss worth more than ability to easily sell an asset❓

A thought inspired by @CliffordAsness
2/4 Cliff’s argument is that the low, smoothed, vol of private equity is part of its appeal, so investors may be prepared to pay up for it

My argument for private credit is different ✋

(FWIW I agree that vol ≠ risk, everyone should be honest with themselves about this)
3/4 Why?

- much better access to info, much faster, than corporate bond investors. E.g. monthly updates from the CFO. Much closer relationship than in a mass syndicated loan or corporate bond issue

- can step in sooner to exert influence and protect value of investments
Read 4 tweets
Mar 22, 2021
1/8 What does almost two centuries of data tell us about #ukhousing affordability? Here’s a chart-thread of my research which @martinwolf_ covered in his latest @FT piece.
Full article here: schroders.com/en/uk/private-…
#houseprices #property
2/8 UK homes have only been this expensive vs earnings twice in the past 120 years.

Things were even more expensive between the year 1845 and early 20th century.

What happened to change things? More houses, smaller houses, higher incomes. ImageImage
3/8 most people didn’t really benefit though, as over 75% rented at that time. Home ownership didn’t take off until 2nd half of 20th century.

Note the reversal post-2001. Back down near 64% now. Home ownership becoming less attainable Image
Read 8 tweets

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