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🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
@calvinfroedge
Jun 16, 2022 • 6 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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A few of the world's largest cities. Where is the demand destruction, again?

#OOTT
Flight stats...2022 is tracking ahead of 2019 levels for total flights. Commercial flights are behind 2019, assuming the balance is being made up by mostly increased military activity (which btw, fighter jets burn a LOT ton of fuel - which $INT sells)
Rotterdam bunker sales 16% higher in Q1-22 than Q1-21
Fujairah bunker sales tracking higher recent months
Singapore Bunker sales down quite a bit from last year (assuming China lockdowns and increased Chinese bunkering presence)
Last available EIA data - prime supplier sales all tracking within or above 5 year ranges for jet, distillate, aviation, kerosene

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More from @calvinfroedge

🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Mar 3
I feel like oil investors don't understand the difference between highly depleted locations like Texas and much younger oil locations in Latin America.

My thesis is this, my Latin American countries are basically Texas in 1920s, i.e. decades of cheap conventional oil ahead. 🧵
The Texan oil industry began its birth in 1866, just after the civil war, in a little town between Houston and Dallas called Nagodoches.

A man named Lyne T. Barret used an auger, fastened to a pipe to drill that first well.


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By 1890, Nagodoches, by this time called "Oil Springs", would have more than 40 oil wells.

By 1894, another major discovery had been made in nearby Corsicana, and the oil field operators built the first modern refinery, which would receive oil shipments by rail.
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Read 13 tweets
🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Mar 1
$GPRK and cheaper on produced/developing reserves basis than LatAm majors $EC and $PBR.

Market likes to throw around 3P numbers like they mean something, but the rubber hits the road with PDP - i.e. actual producing wells. PXT.TO
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$GPRK $PXT.TO $PTALF all cheaper than $EC and $PBR on P/E basis Image
$PXT.TO has the best balance sheet among LatAm peers - $GPRK is the most levered (but a single 2027 maturity at 5% rate) Image
Read 4 tweets
🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Feb 25
Several liberal states will lose 2024 electoral college votes due to declining populations.

This trend can be weaponized by conservative cities and states to increase their population and electoral college weights, increase property values, and harm the DNC.

Here's a guide...

1) Economic incentives

A conservative voter in a liberal district in California has no value to anyone. These people should be prioritized for relocation to conservative states, especially in places where conservative majorities are being eroded.

In order to do this, incentives can be offered at the state and local level offering additional incentives such as income and property tax breaks based on political affiliation.

Additional incentives can be provided to those who start businesses and employ others.

To receive the benefits, people must be LEAVING a DNC controlled area AND show a history of conservative voting.

These benefits would expire after a given timeframe.

2) Targeted advertising and ambassadors

Conservative states can purchase ads and send people on the ground to infiltrate churches, PTA boards, etc. in liberal areas and raise awareness of this relocation plan.

The goal will be to make these prospective migrants aware of the strategy and communicate the incentives to them.

3) Financial incentives for developers

A new form of tax free bonds, similar to muni bonds, can be introduced at the state and local level. These bonds will target building housing for the new migrants.

4) Social and cultural targeting

While people of means may be the ones who can afford to simply relocate, they aren't the only ones who offer value.

Scholarship programs can be set up specifically for students who meet a certain political profile and come FROM a DNC controlled area.

The idea would be to rob DNC controlled areas of young people, and relocate conservatives to areas where they will have a greater impact.Image
@Robert_Aderholt @RepMarkAlford @RepRickAllen @MarkAmodeiNV2 @RepArmstrongND @RepArrington @RepBrianBabin @RepDonBacon @RepJimBaird @RepBalderson @RepJimBanks @RepAndyBarr @RepAaronBean @RepBentz @RepJackBergman @RepBice @RepAndyBiggsAZ @RepGusBilirakis @RepDanBishop @RepBoebert @RepBost @RepBrecheen @VernBuchanan @RepKenBuck @RepLarryBucshon @RepTimBurchett @michaelcburgess @RepEricBurlison @KenCalvert @RepKatCammack @RepMikeCarey @RepJerryCarl @RepBuddyCarter @JudgeCarter @RepCiscomani @RepBenCline @RepCloudTX @Rep_Clyde @TomColeOK04 @RepMikeCollins @RepJamesComer @RepRickCrawford @RepDanCrenshaw @RepJohnCurtis @WarrenDavidson @RepMonicaDLC @DesJarlaisTN04 @RepDesposito @MarioDB @RepDonaldsPress
@RepDuarteCA13 @RepJeffDuncan @DrNealDunnFL2 @RepEdwards @RepEllzey @GOPMajorityWhip @RepRonEstes @RepEzell @RepPatFallon @RepFeenstra @RepDrewFerguson @repfinstad @RepFischbach @RepFitzgerald @RepBrianFitz @RepChuck @USRepMikeFlood @virginiafoxx @RepFranklin @RepRussellFry @RepRussFulcher @RepMattGaetz @RepGallagher @RepGarbarino @RepMikeGarcia @RepCarlos @RepTonyGonzales @RepJenniffer @RepBobGood @RepGosar @RepKayGranger @RepGarretGraves @RepSamGraves @RepMarkGreen @RepMTG @RepMGriffith @RepGrothman @RepMichaelGuest @RepGuthrie @RepHageman @RepAndyHarrisMD @RepHarshbarger @repkevinhern @RepClayHiggins @RepFrenchHill
Read 6 tweets
🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Feb 13
When I was 24 I was volunteering for Richard Stallman, who was telling us to not use literally any product created by big tech because it would take away our freedom.

We all thought he was fucking crazy of course, but it turned out he was right about literally everything. Image
Those were early days in the censorship state. Snowden had only recently blown the whistle on PRISM. I read his book "Permanent Record" and obviously ignored everything he had to say.

I remember Stallman walking into the office, pointing at my Mac, and saying, "WTF is that."
Anyway, it's 2024, and "they" have a database of everything you've written for the past 12 years.

They're spying on 2 billion whatsapp users globally in real time. You've sent some form of personally compromising piece of information. And they have it.

On *everyone*.
Read 5 tweets
🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Feb 13
Have you guys stopped and wondered how Israel has been so good at targeting Hamas/Hezbollah VIPs?

IMO they have backdoors in all the messaging apps.

Only chance these guys really have is to use Chinese/Russian software on Chinese phones.
WhatsApp claims on its marketing site that it is "end to end secured" and "nobody can read your messages except you and the person you're chatting with, not even whatsapp"

Yet Reuters reported in 2021 on journalists having their Whatsapp accounts blocked.

$META owns Whatsapp
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Going back over a decade, Snowden revealed NSA backdoors into all the popular email apps via PRISM.

This infrastructure has been in process for decades.

Every mainstream piece of western software sends all communication straight to US and Israeli intelligence. Image
Read 8 tweets
🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Feb 7
If you're a married American and make ~$250k/yr and can work online earning an active income, I'm going to outline a strategy that will allow you to build millions in equity that will be nearly completely tax free.

You don't need foreign companies or complex structures.
The first concept that you need to know about is the FEIE (Foreign Earned Income Exclusion), which is detailed here on the IRS website.

If you're a married American, you get an income tax exclusion on the first $240k in earned income.

.irs.gov/individuals/in…
What is earned income? It's income that you work for. That means it can't come from passive sources like dividends and it can't come from activities like trading stocks.

You need to have a job, or some type of self employed business (like writing, software, or law/accounting).
Read 14 tweets

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