Flight stats...2022 is tracking ahead of 2019 levels for total flights. Commercial flights are behind 2019, assuming the balance is being made up by mostly increased military activity (which btw, fighter jets burn a LOT ton of fuel - which $INT sells)
Rotterdam bunker sales 16% higher in Q1-22 than Q1-21
If we go on Q1 numbers ($101 Brent), $PBR is at 1.2x EBITDA, 2.15x GAAP EPS. They've paid out 23% in dividends in the past 90 days. Div policy is 60% of FFO-Capex.
That's just silly dude.
Main investments going forward are in refining and gas, which are the relatively weaker segments. Exporting crude production is the big money maker and what's driving the massive dividends.
In regard to "what the politicians are doing", the bottom line is that regardless of what Bolsonaro and other Brazilian politicians say they want, $PBR is sticking to market pricing policies established 6 years ago.
It appears state oil company is the true deep state in Brazil.
We send a lot of diesel and gasoline to Mexico, Canada, Netherlands, Brazil, Venezuela...
We send a lot of Naphtha to Japan and Europe. Below is a visualization of clean tanker charters headed to other countries, from my shipping data production Marhelm:
On balance, most US exports (including crude) are going to Europe and Asia (figures below, again, are from my product, which bases stats on fixture data obtained from ship brokers, ship owners, and charterers).
Basically, we supply both crude and product to everyone.
Running Venezuelan crude through American/European refineries fixes some big problems politically - namely gasoline price and providing fuel oil for electricity.
Diesel and naptha will suffer, but peak diesel season is spring planting, so it's a good trade off.
Venezuela's Merey crude has one of the lowest APIs in the world - meaning extremely high residual and gasoline yields - in the neighborhood of 40% / 40% vs Brent around 12% / 26%.
Think "black sludge"...perfect if you need to run a power plant.
Just another reason to bet on South American crude oil...refinery economics.
I'm going to make a prediction and I invite all of the experts out there to fight me on this.
The world will burn *an extra* 2-3M bpd of oil for electricity this winter due to natural gas shortages, under performance of renewables, and nuclear shut downs.
Anyone doubting this prediction, I'd like to refer to a few facts:
1) Germany nuclear shutdowns 2) French nuclear maintenance 3) Gas storage in Europe is currently not enough to supply base load demand
Can I please get someone to say I don't know what I'm talking about?