Instead of going after making a penny here & there, its far better to prepare for the next bull run. See how you handled the last run, what were your strengths & weaknesses. What you missed out in the past run and what you mishandled. Build around your strength and minimize (1/n)
In subsequent tweets I will tell you how they are going to contribute in improving your trading. (2/n)
I reached to the conclusion I shared in this thread due to the #ProceduralMemory. Focus on how the biggest winners of the past run unfolded. How they acted comparative to what market is doing. How they started their journey of the stage 2 advance. (3/n)
Can you zero down one such day when the characteristics changed, and stock started it advance? What was the nature of that one day? What preceeded that day? Was it nearby any earnings announcement - just before or after? Was there any thing common among the big winners? (4/n)
Was there any probability to take advantage of the changing behavior? If not then how far you would've entered? And how you would've managed it to make the most out of it?
This study will give you a lot of insight to find out the next set of winners early in upcoming cycle.(5/n)
2) #DeepDive - All of us trade different setups - setups we learnt from books, webinars, videos etc. We rarely bother about understanding the nature of the setup and examining its effectiveness. This is where our weakness lies.
Pick up data of last 5-7 years and check each (6/n)
every instance when the setup emerged in past years. You can do it using a screener.
See the winrate & RR strategy offers. How are the best ones look, and how you would've managed them to make the most out of it. Use bar replay feature of trading view, but do not focus (7/n)
on how they looked post breakout, instead see how they looked before that, so you can identify a setup before breakout when the emerge in real time.
Carve / improve your rules by focusing on how most of the stocks are acting instead on focusing on how any outlier acted. (8/n)
Also see how the setups acted in different market breadth conditions.
This #deepdive will give you the belief in your strategy / system. This will help you eliminate regret and fear in trading and the one who does that can achieve everything he ever dreamt for via trading (9/n)
3) #SituationalAwareness - An extremely invaluable skill to develop. While it is not easy, but once you do, you are often able to get how market is going to pan out throughout the day. Also you'll be able to identify strategies you should focus on more while trading. (10/n)
Regardless of how cool it sounds, it is not an easy skill to develop. It is only obtained via trial & error. If you have a market breadth sheet of ur own, every morning add a note of what you think about the market, how the day should pan out & how you should work with it. (11/n)
Give half an hour, see things impacting the market, think about the prevailing sentiment in market participants about the day & also think about the possibility of expectation failure for them.
Am sharing few points I copied from @PradeepBonde's blog. (12/n)
Think upon these points & add a note every morning to your market breadth excel sheet or trading diary. In evening check whether things panned out as you expected or not? Or you missed any important thing? Or anything unexpected happened? If yes, how you would've dealt it? (13/n)
4) #OrganizeLikeCrazy or #OLC - OLC is about having a proper workflow and daily & weekly routines. This should be in written and rigorously followed. Write down each and everything you do while trading. Write down the timings & sequence of scans, order placement and your (14/n)
actions post that. Write down each & everything. This will ensure flawless execution of everything you worked upon because without proper execution everything will be worthless.
If you work upon these 4 things, am absolutely sure that everything will change for you (15/n)
in just few months. Remember these powerful words, "Success is a Choise". The path is not going to be easy, but if it would've been easy, everyone would've been successful. It wouldn't be easy but it comes with a guarantee of success, so its time to put everything behind (16/n)
the goal you set for yourself to be called successful. Its time to prepare for the moment when you'll have the right opportunity.
If you share the belief that these 4 things can change your life forever, pls retweet for further reach.
The collision of two contra beliefs in technical analysis - an interesting discussion between me and a student.
A while ago I was explaining the exit strategies to one of my students, where I explained him to pay attention to the MA which are tested back-to-back since last few weeks (if there is one) to use them as TSL instead of the default TSL as per strategy as it is as per the behavior of the stock.
He asked me a question - "Sir, during our CRMC module you taught that as a level is tested back-to-back, it becomes weaker, not stronger. This is going contrary to that belief."
This thread contains the answer which I gave him, and an interesting tale of making sense between the two exact contrary beliefs in TA. (1/n)
When we read John J. Murphy or any other conventional TA book, it always says that the more time a support or a resistance level is tested, the stronger it becomes.
But when you learn the concepts of @realsamseiden, renowned trader who is known as the father of supply and demand trading - he presents a counter view. He says that the more time an order block is tested - it becomes weak.
For momentum traders, this is the exact concept which creates VCPs.
Most of us often like to choose one side based on our bias - either this is true or that is. But very few of us spend time thinking what exactly creates these contrary beliefs. I strongly believe in one thing - critical thinking needs not accept anything on face value, nor reject anything without looking for all the possible dimensions. Many times, the exact concept is not useful or is flawed, but there will be concepts which can be taken and applied elsewhere in our learning or refining process.
I often tell my students, I don't want to give you an assembled car, rather think of the concepts as various parts of the car - once you understand them, you can mix and merge them as per your need and situation to carve a superior process flow. This is exactly where your imagination and creativity come into play and help you find unique solutions for your trading problems. (3/n)
In my situational awareness webinar, I explained 3 key drivers for high returns -
1) Compounding (Long term 10 Years) 2) Earnings driven (6 months to 1.5 years) 3) Momentum driven (1 day to 1 month)
There can be several different types of people who use compounding to make money - the first type is ignorant investors who don't know much about the stock market but want to become part of wealth creation through stocks. They invest in mutual funds or bluechip companies prioritizing sustainability over scalability.
The second category of people who make huge money is those who bet on scalability along compounding. Take example of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala - he made huge money out of Titan as not only the stock compound but also grew significantly. (1/n)
In the stock market, every year's biggest winners, aka monster stocks or model stocks, list is always dominated with earnings driven movers. In almost all stocks, earnings are cyclical - stocks post 4 to 6 quarters of huge earnings growth followed by a downcycle. Take an example of Laurus, which once had a TTM EPS of ₹18.30 with P/E ratio of 35-40 at the peak price of ₹720. Today, at ₹400 the stock is at 100 P/E with only ₹3.49 TTM EPS. One more bad quarter will drop EPS by ₹1 or ₹1.5 (if earnings come similar to Dec quarter) and P/E will shoot up to 200 at current prices.
Laurus will definitely go through another earnings cycle sooner or later but what is important is, if we aren't an investor, it doesn't make sense to sit into a stock for a 60% drawdown. Rather, a new entry again when it gives an EP will make our gains much bigger.
Short term momentum is totally driven by technicals and are apt for swing and short-term trading. There are different tendencies which help us make quick money through these phenomena. (2/n)
But what is most important and what is the basic purpose of this thread is the hybrids we create by merging two growth drivers -
1) Earnings + Compounding 2) Earnings + Momentum
Earnings plus momentum is extremely popular these days, thanks to Pradeep Bonde and Qullamaggie's strategies. But what I really want to talk here is about the hybrid created through merging Earnings & Compounding, because most traders only utilizes the power of compounding on portfolio level where your realized profit becomes part of your capital for the next trade. But they lack understanding about the power of compounding on stock basis, which brings huge difference in the outcomes.
Let me explain it through an example of Dixon in 2020-21. Here I will use 2 different strategies of trailing, one with 21 DEMA and second with 50 DEMA. (3/n)
A must read thread on how some of the great traders work.
But while this is one great way to manage positions, I will present some others ways which can go exactly contrary to the explained rules and styles in order to explain how decision making should be done in many ways to generate similar outcomes and should be done according to your objective rather than how one or few traders trade.
The ultimate objective is to explain a trading decision making framework.
Thread - (1/n)
Lets understand how and why we make trading decisions (we all use it, but we do it in subconscious mind and don't realise it).
This framework has 3 parts -
1) Expected Outcome or Reward from the decision - Why are we making the decision?
There are 4 reasons behind any trading decision -
a) Earn Money (example - entering a trade or holding it)
b) Save Capital (example - taking a loss at or before SL)
c) Save Profit (example - using TSL or selling into strength)
d) Save Time (example - not sitting through pullback, taking precise entry or tight SL, selling into strength or time stops)
There can be more reasons as well, but these mostly cover all popular reasons. (2/n)
2) Consequence or Cost or Risk involved in the decision - what if outcome doesn't go as per expected?
Here are the 4 common risks involved with trading decisions -
a) Loss of More Capital (example - waiting for initial SL to trigger, giving more room, high size without reducing SL etc)
b) Loss of More Profit (example - deeper TSL, selling into weakness, holding more size to sell into weakness or upon more decisive trigger)
c) Loss of More Time (example - deeper TSL, waiting in base, holding if stock doesn't moves up immediately etc)
d) Loss of Opportunity (example - tighter SLs / TSLs, selling into strength, selling if stock doesn't immediately moves up, taking small position size etc)
In all our decisions we always prioritize one thing at the cost of other. All trading decisions always have a cost. (3/n)
Last Friday, I wrote about Understanding Risk and Resources. Today, I am writing the second part of it - Understanding Risk, Resources and how to achieve Optimum Performance in Trading.
As you have gone through the work of people who achieved optimum performance in trading consistently like @DanZanger @Qullamaggie etc., you will realize one common thing - their techniques and tactics are nothing special or much different than ours.
Unfortunately, we think it is their techniques which are the reason for success.
While this can run many workshops, webinars, courses - it is not going to help you take the next leap in trading.
Yet we spend countless hours going through the same crap we already know, again and again, and jump upon anything new, any new jargon we find - hoping it to help us achieve optimum performance.
Brad Koteshwar - The Perfect Speculator
Brad Koteshwar - The Perfect Stock
Chris Kacher & Gil Morales- Trade like an O'Neil Disciple
Chris Kacher & Gil Morales- In the Trading Cockpit with O'Neil Disciple
Chris Kacher & Gil Morales - Short Selling with the O'Neil Disciples (2/n)
Curtis Faith - Trading from Your Gut
Curtis Faith - Way of the Turtle
Frank Cappiellos - New Guide to Finding the Next Superstock
Gerald Loeb - The Battle of Investment Survival (3/n)