EU needs to prepare for interruption of #gas supply. #REPowerEU proposes #gas-saving in all MS & a #pricelimit (maximum regulated price) for large-scale supply interruption. Here a short summary of the attempt to estimate the scale of the effects diw.de/de/diw_01.c.84… 1/6
How much will EU gas supply decline, if a price limit is implemented? Assume the limit is set above historic price hikes (e.g. 50 €/MWh), then all pipe and LNG producers have incentive to deliver at max capacity. 2/6
Will price limit hinder EU from outcompeting Asian LNG buyers? Building on country level analysis by @vjkarplus e.a. (diw.de/de/diw_01.c.84…) a first estimate: If LNG prices jump to 300 €/MWh, EU attracts more LNG corresponding to 6% of EU demand than at 50 €/MWh. 3/6
What about EU demand? All depends on large scale savings - they require structured programs and campaigns, including auctions for industry gas savings. Can we agree within REPowerEU gassaving targets for all MS? @goldthau, @IsabellaMWeber ... diw.de/de/diw_01.c.84… 4/6
What is the net effect? Worst case - reduced EU LNG imports can’t be met by savings but require curtailment of high value gas demand (600 Euro/MWh). These costs are still far lower than the gas bill EU consumers would otherwise face. 5/6 
Already now, prior to a large-scale interruption, high prices anticipated after interruption translate into a large risk premium on gas prices. A gas saving strategy and a price limit for supply interruption can reduce this risk premium, reducing costs for consumers by factor 2.5
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