OG mattered for ~6 months in '21 and then everyone stopped caring. Punks have leaked lower for about a year now. Coldie was selling 1/1s for 20E, which is stupid.
I think "OG" will make a comeback. Back in 2000 after the dotcom bubble burst, people went back to blue chips first. The same will happen here I think, and you're seeing it today in @cryptopunksbot
2) Aesthetics. I'm sure you will be shocked to know that 99% of people here are in fact not "in it for the art" š
But this has to change, because I cannot think of a single PFP project that beats 1/1 or generative art in aesthetics. So IMO one of two things has to happen...
Either people will start getting into it for the art, or they will continue getting rekt using "the art is great" tagline to justify reckless purchases.
My guess is it will be the latter for most everyone.
The good news?
Digital art sales, in all forms, will continue higher as acceptance grows. Displays will get better (more people), onboarding will get better (ditto), usability will get better (ditto), and so on.
It's frustratingly slow compared to the idiocy we've seen in PFPs, but it's also healthier.
Note that I still think prices, on average, will trend lower in fiat terms. But that, too, is healthier for the market.
3) Utility
Thus far the utility of NFTs has been a joke. Games, discord access, token gates, air drops, etc etc etc. There's value here, but the true power of utility has yet to be unlocked IMO.
But I think this will only get better
There are sooooo many valuable ideas that can be unlocked with the preferences of a known holder on one side and proof of ownership on the other. It is the grail for any new NFT project that has neither history nor aesthetic on its side.
We are in the 1st inning on utility IMO
Note: artists have aesthetics and do not need utility. Asking an artist to provide utility to its holders is demeaning and stupid. Buy the piece because you love it and leave these artists alone.
4) FOMO
This one is easy to FUD but I actually think it's still alive and kicking. The price of ETH is down so much it'll bring in new folks looking for dopamine hits.
In May there were only 422k active wallets on OpenSea. This is NOTHING. It's like a few square blocks in NY
Do not underestimate the power of FOMO in a secularly growing market.
That said, a lot of people have been rekt and it's going to take some time for that wound to heal. Hopefully some lessons have been learned.
But I doubt it ;-)
Thanks for reading. Peace to you all.
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September was the 3rd highest month ever for 1/1 #NFT art sales, and October is currently on pace to break that record. Money did indeed flow into 1/1 after an orgy of generative and collectible (punks) buying.
And things did slow at the lower end of generative.... that Xcopy I highlighted ended up selling for 200E, which today would be considered a bargain, while the current Fidenza floor is 150
Punks Floor: 95
AB Ringers Floor: 144
Avg 1/1 art sale on SR: 5E
I've been thinking a lot about why this persists and here's my view:
1) Fun 2) Certainty
I'm going to dive into both and then make some predictions....
1) Fun: memeability and community are 2 biggest drivers. e.g. The better the community the more valuable the project. I can't stress enough how big this is in driving #NFT values
Why do people love punks, BAYC, or even stupid shit like Dogecoin and Gamestop?
BECAUSE IT'S FUN
2) Certainty: this comes best when there's a fixed supply.
And when there's a fixed supply you can drive liquidity.
Why did 3AC buy the hell out of punks and Art Blocks a few weeks back? Because they know there's a fixed supply that is easily valued because it's liquid.
I decided to make this because I get a lot of questions about my views on 1/1 art versus other categories. This sums up how I feel about the entire space right now:
New wallets come in and usually start at collectibles... it's safe and requires just a small amount of work to fully understand. They're easy avatars and a good way to get your feet wet.
Stage 2 is generative art, which has seen a MASSIVE uptick in recent weeks. Those new wallets are doing more work and finding the primo projects.