Thread by @batsoupyum

Some thoughts/predictions for how I think things will look in #NFTs coming out of this bear market 🧵

Warning: I am wrong a lot so take this lightly

There have been 4 main drivers of #NFTs values for roughly the last 18 months (there are obv more than 4 but these stand out to me):

1) OG/Historic
2) Aesthetics
3) Utility
4) FOMO

1) OG/Historic. Examples: Punks, Pepes, @Coldie @XCOPYART @ROBNESSOFFICIAL @dmitricherniak

OG mattered for ~6 months in '21 and then everyone stopped caring. Punks have leaked lower for about a year now. Coldie was selling 1/1s for 20E, which is stupid.

I think "OG" will make a comeback. Back in 2000 after the dotcom bubble burst, people went back to blue chips first. The same will happen here I think, and you're seeing it today in @cryptopunksbot

2) Aesthetics. I'm sure you will be shocked to know that 99% of people here are in fact not "in it for the art" 😂

But this has to change, because I cannot think of a single PFP project that beats 1/1 or generative art in aesthetics. So IMO one of two things has to happen...

Either people will start getting into it for the art, or they will continue getting rekt using "the art is great" tagline to justify reckless purchases.

My guess is it will be the latter for most everyone.

The good news?

Digital art sales, in all forms, will continue higher as acceptance grows. Displays will get better (more people), onboarding will get better (ditto), usability will get better (ditto), and so on.

It's frustratingly slow compared to the idiocy we've seen in PFPs, but it's also healthier.

Note that I still think prices, on average, will trend lower in fiat terms. But that, too, is healthier for the market.

3) Utility

Thus far the utility of NFTs has been a joke. Games, discord access, token gates, air drops, etc etc etc. There's value here, but the true power of utility has yet to be unlocked IMO.

But I think this will only get better

There are sooooo many valuable ideas that can be unlocked with the preferences of a known holder on one side and proof of ownership on the other. It is the grail for any new NFT project that has neither history nor aesthetic on its side.

We are in the 1st inning on utility IMO

Note: artists have aesthetics and do not need utility. Asking an artist to provide utility to its holders is demeaning and stupid. Buy the piece because you love it and leave these artists alone.

4) FOMO

This one is easy to FUD but I actually think it's still alive and kicking. The price of ETH is down so much it'll bring in new folks looking for dopamine hits.

In May there were only 422k active wallets on OpenSea. This is NOTHING. It's like a few square blocks in NY

Do not underestimate the power of FOMO in a secularly growing market.

That said, a lot of people have been rekt and it's going to take some time for that wound to heal. Hopefully some lessons have been learned.

But I doubt it ;-)

Thanks for reading. Peace to you all.