A note on collecting

I’m often asked about the collectors here and have seen more frequent mention of the word “cabal,” so as someone who goes to events and speaks with many other collectors I thought it might be useful to describe the scene. Note: these thoughts are mine alone and I expect many collectors will disagree with this. It's ok, we can have civil debates around here now and then 🤣 There are many reasons to collect but here are the top 5 in no particular order:
1. You love the art
2. You love the artist
3. You want to support a movement
4. You are copytrading someone
5. You are in it for financial gain

Some very surprising conclusions in this exercise.... I'm going to try and summarize my takeaways, organized around 5 categories:

1) PFPs
2) Generative Art
3) 1/1 Art
4) Ordinals
5) Personal

https://twitter.com/batsoupyum/status/1875002264043311216

1) PFPs

Unsurprisingly, the overwhelming favorite choice among known projects was "a punk"

Far more surprising was the indifference shown towards a select punk. We had many mentions of Aliens and Hoodie, but a lot of people simply didn't even care or chose something personal to themselves. For example:

https://x.com/Blue11art/status/1875081026386772130

I don't do much in PFPs anymore, but decided to look into BAYC and wtf seems to be nonstop carnage there (I personally own zero).

And I think this has a lot to do with it. Lending 👇 Unlike most NFT lending platforms, Blur's has 2 unique features:

1) Loans are perpetual. Most platforms have a set expiration
2) The lender can put the loan back to the borrower, triggering a 24h auction where someone else needs to refi the loan or the BAYC goes to the lender

Some thoughts/predictions for how I think things will look in #NFTs coming out of this bear market 🧵

Warning: I am wrong a lot so take this lightly There have been 4 main drivers of #NFTs values for roughly the last 18 months (there are obv more than 4 but these stand out to me):

1) OG/Historic
2) Aesthetics
3) Utility
4) FOMO

I've had a number of questions recently about #NFT markets and, specifically, this chart I made last year.

So here we go with a short 🧵 (oh no Bats, not that! Yes that! {evil laughter})

https://twitter.com/batsoupyum/status/1429221211293114371?s=20&t=T_toKKgeT3mGLXNpiQi6bQ

So it seems people feel like 1/1 art is dead...

I'll use SR as a proxy for the kinds of comments I'm getting.

Here's my guide on how I value #NFTs. It is by no means comprehensive, so please add to it in this thread!

Let's start with a basic equation for how I think about it: Now let's look at each variable in turn:

My bull case on $BTC/$ETH and certain digital goods:

- Omicron causes producers like China to (partially) shut down, exacerbating supply chain issues

- Consumer countries like the USA don't have the appetite for more shutdowns, so they continue doing what they do best: consume - This supercharges inflation, which is already 😬

- What happens when inflation expectations move from transitory to "less transitory?" People buy inflation-protected assets.

- IMO BTC/ETH are ground zero, but so is art. Check this out from the NYT, 2009:

Time to check in on this thread from late August and make a few more predictions....

https://twitter.com/batsoupyum/status/1429221211293114371?s=20

September was the 3rd highest month ever for 1/1 #NFT art sales, and October is currently on pace to break that record. Money did indeed flow into 1/1 after an orgy of generative and collectible (punks) buying.

Punks Floor: 95
AB Ringers Floor: 144
Avg 1/1 art sale on SR: 5E

I've been thinking a lot about why this persists and here's my view:

1) Fun
2) Certainty

I'm going to dive into both and then make some predictions.... 1) Fun: memeability and community are 2 biggest drivers. e.g. The better the community the more valuable the project. I can't stress enough how big this is in driving #NFT values

Why do people love punks, BAYC, or even stupid shit like Dogecoin and Gamestop?

BECAUSE IT'S FUN

I decided to make this because I get a lot of questions about my views on 1/1 art versus other categories. This sums up how I feel about the entire space right now: New wallets come in and usually start at collectibles... it's safe and requires just a small amount of work to fully understand. They're easy avatars and a good way to get your feet wet.

1/n
Quick update and some predictions....

Generative art markets (punks, AB Curated, BAYC) are going absolutely insane and it's carrying over to 1/1 art in a pretty big way

SR are very likely going to have their 2nd best month ever... Prices are rallying bigtime as well:

I have a few thoughts on the @SuperRare bombshell today:

1/ A point I have made so many times: Decentralization is and has ALWAYS been the point of crypto. Digital art and #NFTs (via crypto) are inseparable; we need each other.

SR just bet their entire existence on it. 🤯 2/ How did they do this? Note that artist royalties don't change in ANY scenario, but now all fees that SR used to pocket are going to their DAO, which is governed by $RARE tokenholders (but there is a DAO oversight committee whose powers are unclear to me)