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GeoConfirmed Profile picture
@GeoConfirmed
Jun 19, 2022 • 85 tweets • 35 min read • Read on X
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"Indiscriminate shelling of Donetsk on 04 JUN",
@GeoConfirmed thread 5.

Who shelled Donetsk around sunset on 04 Jun?

We don't know how long this thread will be and additional information later on will also be placed in this thread, so we number it "xx/"

01/
We started an investigation on this indiscriminate shelling because of the fact that a DPR representative claimed it was an Ukrainian shelling and Ukrainian sources claimed this was a Russian shelling for a pretext.
So who could be right?

Let's start with GeoLocations:

02/
POV 01:

POV GRID: 48.000746, 37.82683

GeoLocated by @Bazinga00264477



03/
GeoLocation POV 02:


04/
POV 02:

POV GRID: 48.00370, 37.80394

GeoLocated by @rollowastaken



05/
GeoLocation POV 02:

06/
POV 03:

POV GRID: 48.001356, 37.807657

GeoLocated by @kargolow



07/
GeoLocation POV 03:

08/
POV 04:

POV GRID: 47.996689, 37.820240

GeoLocated by @doppelot



09/
GeoLocation POV 04:

10/
POV 05:

POV GRID: 48.008577, 37.813400

GeoLocated by @rollowastaken

Source: t.me/makarov_kb/522

11/
GeoLocation POV 05:

12/
So these were 5 POV's we geolocated (we geolocated more, but for this thread we only use these 5.)

When placed on a map we get a clue of where the area of impact should be.

13/
Based on the first video we can make an assessment about the number of impacts:

1,5km away from impact area.
Speed of sound 343 m/s so rougly 5 seconds delay. The movie starts immediately with the sound of impacts.

14/
When the last one occurred there is indeed a delay about 5 Seconds.
So how many impacts where there?
How much flashes do we see?

We see around 17+ flashes --> We can hear 5/6 before flashes reach the POV. So we have an estimation around 20-25 impacts.

15/
We have to take in account that it's at least around 25 impacts because the filming started when the shelling was already busy.

Timing of the shelling (video): 15 seconds.
(again we don't know how long it's been going on)

So this would mean 25/15= 0,6 sec for each impact.

16/
So now the "Impact" video's (with some analyses of those impact's).

We know there are at least 20 impacts, so footage should emerge. And it did.
In this thread we only analyse the impacts where we GeoConfirmed the location.

17/
Impact 01: "Massage & Spa"

GRID: 48.013194, 37.814042

GeoLocated by @Doppelot

Source: t.me/itsdonetsk/163…

18/
GeoLocation Impact 01: "Massage & Spa"

19/
Impact 02: "Residential Building"

GRID: 48.012574, 37.817595

GeoLocated by @doppelot

Source: t.me/itsdonetsk/163…

20/
GeoLocation Impact 02: "Residential Building"

21/
Impact 03: "Bus Stop"

GRID: 48.012905, 37.811800

GeoLocated by Doppelot

Source: t.me/itsdonetsk/163…

22/
GeoLocation Impact 03: "Bus Stop"

23/
Impact 04: "Street Corner"
(2 pictures, same impact picture taken from opposite direction)

GRID: 48.012492, 37.811646

GeoLocated by @Doppelot and @rollowastaken

Source: t.me/itsdonetsk/163… and t.me/itsdonetsk/163…

24/
GeoLocation Impact 04: "Street Corner"

25/
Impact 05: "Den"

GRID: 48.013260, 37.814655

GeoLocated by @kargolow

Source: t.me/itsdonetsk/162…

26/
GeoLocation Impact 05: "Den"

27/
Impact 06: "White Van"
This was a complicated one, with more POV's. But there is a White Van near the impact so we use that as reference.

GRID: 48.01215, 37.81454

GeoLocated by @neonhandrail

VID 1:


28/
Impact 06: "White Van"

VID 2:


29/
GeoLocation Impact 06: "White Van" VID 1.

30/
GeoLocation Impact 06: "White Van" VID 2.

31/
3th video from Impact 06: "White Van"


32/
4th video from impact 06: White Van"


33/
Impact 07: "Yellow Building"

GRID: 48.014761, 37.817705

GeoLocated by @kargolow

Source: t.me/itsdonetsk/162…

34/
GeoLocation Impact 07: "Yellow Building"

35/
Impact 08: "Orange building"

GRID: 48.014047, 37.812647

GeoLocated by @doppelot and @neonhandrail

Source: t.me/itsdonetsk/162…

36/
GeoLocation Impact 08 "Orange building"

37/
We found footage of other impacts also but we couldn't GeoConfirm those.

If we map those 8 impacts, this is what we get:

38/
So we know WHAT happened = Donetsk is shelled with at least 8 GeoLocated impacts and at least 20 seen/heard impacts.

So WHEN? Around 2000 PM.

Every video we found was posted on 04 JUN in the evening and on 05 JUN.

39/
In different videos you can see a Sunset and the same cloud formations.

VID 1:

VID 2:


40/
We have the WHAT? and the WHEN? Now we go for the HOW: Which type of ammunition and/or launching platform is used?

What we already know is that the Target box is roughly 600x400m's. So whatever is used has a big impact spreading.

41/
But we also found footage of ammunition remnants.

Impact 03: "Bus Stop"

42/
Impact 04: "Street Corner"

(No remnant, but the diameter of the hole is a sign)

43/
Impact 06: White Van

44/
Based on the area of spreading and the ammunition remnants it is highly likely that a GRAD was used.

Source: aoav.org.uk/infographic/in…

45/
And the most common used launching platform is a BM-21 with a 9M22 rocket.
This combination has a range of 20km's.

With a Tornado-G the range can be extended to 40km's. But these are very rare.

46/
Source:
military-today.com/artillery/grad…
military-today.com/artillery/torn…
Some other interesting facts about a GRAD:

- 40 rockets
- a rocket is launched every 0.5 seconds
- maximum range of 20.4 km
- How further the range, how bigger the spreading of impacts.

47/
characterisationexplosiveweapons.org/studies/annex-…
"At the moment of detonation, the basic warhead scatters a total of 3,922 fragments, killing and injuring anyone in its midst. The area affected by the blast and fragmentation of each high explosive warhead that strikes the ground is measured at 700m sq."

48/
"This is an area roughly equivalent to a circle with a radius of 15m, although Grad rockets spit most of their fragmentation effects in an area forward of where the rockets land."

49/
So based on the information of the impact area and the facts above, we can conclude it's highly likely that a Grad was used.

So we know the WHAT? WHEN? HOW? now we try to answer the FROM WHERE.

50/
To asses the launch direction we based us on the known spreading pattern of a Grad Impact: This is a high angle type of ammunition. So the mortar perception of impacts is used.

Source: @bellingcat investigation
bellingcat.com/app/uploads/20…

51/
So this graph we will project on the impacts to assess the direction from where it was launched.

More info: stopfake.org/en/analysis-of…

52/
Impact 01: "Massage & Spa"

Direction to launch area = NW

53/
Impact 02: "Residential Building"

Direction to launch area = NW

54/
Impact 03: "Bus Stop"

Direction to launch area = NW

55/
Impact 04: "Street Corner"

Direction to launch area = NW

56/
Impact 05 "Den"

Direction to launch area = NW / N / NE

57/
Impact 06 "White Van"

Direction to launch area = NW

58/
On the last 2 impacts we can't make an assessment because they fell on a roof and we don't have a clear view on the impact.

Even with room for error, and based on the orientation of the buildings it's highly likely that the launch direction is to the NW of the impact area.

59/
If we put everything together (direction + BM-21 Grad) we can conclude that this should be the area from where the launch took place.

Black line = Frontline assessment of that day by @DavidBatashvili

60/
Map by @Nrg8000 about the situation on 04 JUN.

Area around the airport is conflicted.

61/
So what does this mean? The front line is approx 9 km's away from the impact zone.

The minimum range for the use of a GRAD is depending from which source is used between 3km and 5km (We don't take the Direct Fire method in account cause of the urban nature of impact area)

62/
Grad rockets have the same initial velocity so that means that their range is determent by the inclination.

Source: scielo.cl/img/revistas/j…

researchgate.net/publication/29…

63/
If we take a look at the impacts we see that the impacts have an angle between 30 and 45 degrees.

We also know that the impact zone is roughly 600m x 600m. How further you fire with a GRAD how bigger the spreading of impacts.

64/
So who is responsible?

If this would be done by Russia that would mean they had to place their GRAD(s) on the active (!) frontline, which is unlikely.

65/
So based on all this information we can assume this was an Ukrainian attack with a GRAD BM-21 from the area West of Avdiivka. But can we find other information of this possibility?

66/
On 31 MAY "The Sun" posted a video on YouTube titled "Ukrainian soldiers fire a flurry of rockets at Russian targets in Donetsk"

In this video you only see one BM-21 who fires a few rockets at targets in Donetsk.

So they were in the area.



/67
And then you also have the shelling history of Donetsk:

For Donetsk Ukraine has a history of using Unguided rockets.

hrw.org/news/2014/07/2…

68/
And in the recent weeks Ukraine shelled mostly military targets every day.

"17 1426 JUN - GEO - PIC - Military base in Kievsky District of Donetsk is hit"



69/
And the Ukrainians are still close to Donetsk in the NW:

"17 1850 JUN - GEO - UAV - DNR artillery strikes on reported Ukrainian position"



70/
Ukraine never officially denied that it wasn't them.

They are shelling military targets in Donetsk on a daily basis and if you use unguided rockets for it, it sometimes goes wrong.

The use of a GRAD against populated area's is by nature of the weapon system just wrong.

71/
Russia is shelling dozens of cities with unguided rockets, they are committing a lot of war crimes and they violate the Convention of Geneva on a daily basis.

Conclusion:
In this case it is our assumption that this shelling was highly likely done by the Ukrainian military.
72/
Something about the indiscriminate shelling of populated area's 👇

Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, and relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), 8 June 1977.

👇

73/
For this thread I want to thank all the @GeoConfirmed volunteers. You can follow them by following the members of this list: twitter.com/i/lists/153567…

I want to thank some members of the @bellingcat discord, who participated in the search for the truth.

74/
I want to thank @DefMon3, @Nrg8000 and some members of @bellingcat and @Cen4infoRes for the advice.

We still have some other investigations going on.
We especially investigate doubtful events.

But after all there is no doubt that Russia is the lying aggressor in this war.

75/
Other threads from GeoConfirmed (And members).

"01 APR 2022: The Ukrainian Ambush near #Dmytrivka (+ killing of POW’s)"



76/
"03 APR 2022: The Bucha massacre"



77/
"11 APR 2022: The Kramatorsk strike:

"

78/
"12 MAY 2022: Ukrainian forces in Mariupol come under attack, one soldier was hit by gunfire. Grenade lobbed back at Russian forces."



79/
"14 JUN 2022: The Occupant"



80/
From volunteers:

23 APR 2022, by @brechtcastel

"Ukrainian soldier: "We had orders to shoot to kill at any moving person, whether it was peaceful or not."



81/
26 APR 2022, by @kargolow

"the video of Ukrainian prisoners of war appeared on social media (see first screenshot)."



82/
04 MAY 2022, by @brechtcastel

"2M people have seen this picture on #Telegram (without blur): "🇷🇺 Russian soldier was chained [...] tortured and [...] set on fire while still alive."



83/
07 JUN 2022, by @kargolow

"Footage showing railway transport of military equipment somewhere in Irkutsk oblast appeared today"



84/
15 JUN 2022, by @brechtcastel

"A Russian missile 🇷🇺 killed at least three Ukrainian citizens 🇺🇦 on April 16 in Kyiv."



85/

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More from @GeoConfirmed

GeoConfirmed Profile picture
Jul 14
GeoConfirmed announcement.

Please be cautious when sharing information about the assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump. A lot of misinformation and disinformation is circulating regarding this incident.

GeoLocations:

Estimated location of the shooter: 40.858273, -79.970548
Estimated location of Trump: 40.857139, -79.970870
Estimated location of casualties: 40.856939, -79.970926
Estimated location of crane that is hit: 40.856831, -79.971197
Estimated location of this sniper detachment: 40.857092, -79.970372

An example of widely spread misinformation:
In this video you DON'T see the snipers engaging. The three shots are assessed to be from the shooter. What does not mean this team hasn't engaged the shooter at a later time, it's only not visible in the video claiming they did.

We asked experts and fact checkers their opinion:
Always focus on what you DO see and DO hear in a video.

Observations:

After the first shot Trump is reaching for his ear. Almost the same time Sniper One (With the tripod) is repositioning/taking cover. Also Sniper Two is taking cover. A sniper will not immediately shoot after repositioning: it takes a few seconds to zoom in, adjust scope etc.
Three shots are heard with the same specific sound, all three assessed to be from the shooter.

Another video (Vid 01) emerged where bystanders identify the threat before he starts shooting. At 0:03 you hear three shots. At 0:07 you hear 5 more shots in a fast pace but with the same sound as the first three. Followed with what is assessed as another different type of gun shot.
At 0:16 a witness is describing the shooter to be turning in their direction.
At 0:19 another single different sound what is also assessed as another different type of gunshot, is heard.


In Vid 02 you hear them also identifying the shooter and the same sequence of shots is heard.


In Vid 03 you see the location of casualties.


In Vid 04 you see that a crane is hit (at 0:16) near the location where casualties where reported.


In Vid 05 you see the Sniper Team is still repositioning a fraction before the next 5 shots are heard. Sniper One is still looking over his rifle to assess threat location.


So these are observations.
We asked experts for their opinion what we see here. And the thread written by @LtTimMcMillan seems to be accurate. (Vid 06)

Opinion:

1. Snipers are tasked for very far engagements. The shooter was 125m away. It is very likely the was not in their area of responsibility.

2. Snipers that are using their scope have a narrow field of view. You see that Sniper One is using his scope, probably screening far away/in depth. When trying to identify the treat he had to look over his scope and reposition his rifle, because the treat is likely way closer than expected.

This also means that its impossible to state that this specific detachment failed just based on the footage.
You need to know and understand how they work, what their area of responsibility was, and what the communication was they got, etc...

Read the whole thread by @LtTimMcMillan:


In times like this its advised to follow accounts like @Shayan86 and other fact checkers.

Other examples:

"Major blue-tick accounts are falsely claiming that "Antifa extremist Mark Violets" was the shooter at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania today, who earlier revealed his plan in a YouTube video. The video shows Italian football fan Marco Violi, who has nothing to do with the shooting."


An X user claiming they got the wrong guy.


and lots of other claims.

Conclusion:

Stick to what you hear, see, and know.
Recognize that you may not possess the knowledge to comprehend everything, and it's more beneficial to identify experts and read/listen to their insights on topics beyond your expertise.
Ultimately, a thorough investigation will be necessary to understand what is as close to the truth as possible.

Be mindful of misinformation and disinformation, particularly in these times. The rise of engagement farming has exacerbated this threat to a significant degree.

1/X






All assessed locations:

2/X Image
Our first thread:

(Shooter to Trump distance around 125m)



3/X
Read 11 tweets
GeoConfirmed Profile picture
Jul 14
GeoConfirmed World.

Location of the what looks like the killed shooter involved in the Trump shooting.

Distance from Former US president Trump around 125m.

Former US president Trump was standing around 40.857139, -79.970870

What is assessed as the killed shooter, on a roof, at 40.858250, -79.970806

GeoLocated by @AKMcKeever, @OAlexanderDK, @RhinozzCode, @FahrettinAltay_ @Faytuks, @GeoRaccoon

Geolocation:


Location:

Sources:



geoconfirmed.org/world/d30f722a…

GeoLocations + Distance.

GeoLocations + Distance.

Read 8 tweets
GeoConfirmed Profile picture
May 17
GeoConfirmed UKR.

Last night, Ukraine conducted one of its largest drone attacks in the history of this war.

According to various reports, Ukraine used up to 80 drones, identified as 'Liutyi' one-way attack long-range unmanned aircraft, to strike different targets in Novorossiysk, Russia (approximately 350km from the nearest frontline) and the refinery in Tuapse, Russia (approximately 450km from the nearest frontline).

During the attack, which lasted for hours, dozens of drones followed sometimes the same trajectory, without being intercepted by Russian Air Defense, to strike targets inside Russia.

The targeting of Novorossiysk is particularly significant from a strategic perspective because this is the harbor where various ships of the Black Sea fleet have withdrawn to after the strikes on Sevastopol.

Thread with all the geolocated footage.

1/XImage
At night: Russian AD working in Novorossiysk, first explosions reported.

POV: 44.7020191, 37.7828344

GeoLocated by @Grimm_Intel



2/X
GeoLocation:


3/X
Read 35 tweets
GeoConfirmed Profile picture
Apr 29
GeoConfirmed ISR-PAL. GeoConfirmed Investigation 'Mass graves' - Final.

It has come to our attention that our previous investigation thread did not achieve the desired outcome. For this reason, we have conducted further research and wish to clarify some important points:

Although we had intended to demonstrate that the site was not a new mass grave for 180 individuals recently killed by the IDF, as had been insinuated, we underestimated how our initial thread was subsequently used. We did not provide sufficient context, and we now aim to rectify that.

The fact that Palestinians had to bury their loved ones within the hospital complex, in any available space, is a direct consequence of the surrounding and occupation of the hospital by IDF forces. A significant number of the deaths are also the result of the ongoing conflict.

We want to emphasize that open-source intelligence (OSINT) cannot fully capture the extent of what occurred on the hospital grounds.

After our initial investigation, additional questions arose, prompting us to delve deeper into this matter.

Our first thread:
Our temporary update:


We have been able to geolocate dozens of videos.
To make this information more accessible and easier to follow, we have named the three cemeteries based on their respective locations:

Cemetery South
This cemetery is located south of the road, under the palm trees.

Cemetery North
This cemetery is situated north of the road.

Cemetery East
This cemetery is located in the corner of the area.

By naming the cemeteries according to their geographic locations, we aim to provide a more organised and readable presentation of the findings. This approach eliminates the need to include geolocation proof for every individual video, making the information more concise and easier to comprehend.

We will publish our findings in a timely manner to encourage further thought, discussions and investigations on these matters.
This will be a long thread.
The translations were done by using Google translate and Google image translator.

Special thanks to @MiddleEastBuka, @TwistyCB and @GeoRaccoon for their work. Thanks to specific people from outside the GeoConfirmed network for the advice given.

[Every blue pin is a geolocated video between 22 January and now]

001/X
Image
22 January 2024.

One of the earliest reports we found described the dire situation faced by Palestinians during the ongoing siege, where they were forced to bury their dead inside hospital grounds due to the siege of the hospital by IDF.

Source:

"A number of martyrs were buried within the walls of Nasser Hospital due to the occupation’s siege of the hospital, and the martyrs’ families were unable to bury them in the cemeteries."

002/Xt.me/Ahaamd1985/185…Image
Image
22 January 2024.

Cemetery South.
Source:

The martyrs were buried inside the Nasser Medical Complex in Khan Yunis.

003/Xt.me/Ahaamd1985/186…Image
Read 58 tweets
GeoConfirmed Profile picture
Apr 22
GeoConfirmed ISR-PAL Investigation.

Palestinians are exhuming bodies from the grounds of the Nasser Medical Complex hospital complex in Khan Younis, Gaza.
This is occurring at the same location where mass graves were dug and burial ceremonies had taken place by Palestinians in recent months. (Proof in this thread)

Footage from Palestinians digging graves/mass graves dated 25 January, 28 January and 03 February while IDF entered the hospital around 15 February.

Quote from
“In the hospital courtyard, civil defence members and paramedics have retrieved 180 bodies buried in this mass grave by the Israeli military." (By Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud)

Conclusion:
This is disinformation by Al Jazeera and others:
This is a known graveyard/mass grave and at least partially dug by Palestinians.
This does not exclude that graves could have been added when the hospital was occupied by Israeli forces.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/21…Image
25 JAN 2024 - Palestinian burials by Palestinian people in Nasser Hospital. (VID 01)

An estimation of 75 graves (3 rows of 25 graves) are visible on this video at the exact place where they claimed to have found a mass grave made by the Israeli military.

31.345841, 34.291887

Source:


t.me/Ahaamd1985/187…
t.me/VBnO4pp1lMzBi/…
Still of the footage in VID 01 showing the source, the date and the estimated 75 graves. Image
Read 25 tweets
GeoConfirmed Profile picture
Apr 22
GeoConfirmed ISR-PAL Investigation.

Palestinians are exhuming bodies from the grounds of the Nasser Medical Complex hospital complex in Khan Younis, Gaza.
This is occurring at the same location where mass graves were dug and burial ceremonies had taken place by Palestinians in recent months. (Proof in this thread)

Footage from Palestinians digging graves/mass graves dated 25 January, 28 January and 03 February while IDF entered the hospital around 15 February.

Quote from
“In the hospital courtyard, civil defence members and paramedics have retrieved 180 bodies buried in this mass grave by the Israeli military." (By Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud)

Conclusion:
This is disinformation by Al Jazeera and others:
This is a known graveyard/mass grave and at least partially dug by Palestinians.
This does not exclude that graves could have been added when the hospital was occupied by Israeli forces.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/21…Image
25 JAN 2024 - Palestinian burials by Palestinian people in Nasser Hospital. (VID 01)

An estimation of 75 graves (3 rows of 25 graves) are visible on this video at the exact place where they claimed to have found a mass grave made by the Israeli military.

31.345841, 34.291887

Source:


t.me/Ahaamd1985/187…
t.me/VBnO4pp1lMzBi/…
Still of the footage in VID 01 showing the source, the date and the estimated 75 graves. Image
Read 20 tweets

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