NEW: French #legislatives2022 projections indicate shock result- not that Macron should lose his majority (though this would be a significant margin and remains a blow) but Le Pen’s far right RN should gain so many seats. New left coalition in clear second.
Macron needed 289 to maintain absolute majority in the National Assembly. On the basis of these projections he’ll be nowhere near.
Bear in mind before today the best the Front National (the precursor to Le Pen’s National Rally) had ever done in French legislative election was 35 deputies in 1986. They’re being projected to win 89 tonight.
Best case scenario now for Macron is his Esnemble and Les Républicains reach 289 together. They should do but if either were to underperform further in the actual results it may not be possible.
Being such a relatively large bloc would allow RN to have more influence on parliamentary business, not just votes but things like censure motions.
Macron’s Minister of Health, Brigitte Bourguignon, has just lost her seat in Pas-de-Calais, beaten by the RN candidate by only 56 votes.
Another Macronite big beast beaten, this time by the Left.
Ecology Minister Amélie de Montchalin loses her seat in Essonne to the Left coalition.
On French television, the Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire has spoken of a "democratic shock which shows the deep concerns of French men and women.”
French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne says the situation tonight is “unprecedented. We’ve never seen a configuration like this in the history of the Fifth Republic.”
“The Slap”

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More from @lewis_goodall

Jun 20
*Bit of news of my own today*

I’m delighted to say in September I’ll be joining Global, as co-host of @maitlis and @jonsopel’s new daily news podcast and Analysis and Investigations Editor for the whole network. My brief will be to supercharge the organisation’s video output. Image
What does that look like? Much more to come but we have big plans.  I'll be reporting on and breaking stories in the UK and beyond. Global has reinvented radio- its ambitions for podcasting and quality video journalism (+ how all three work together) are just as big.
This of course sadly means I’ll be leaving wonderful Newsnight. This programme is in my bloodstream. I’m so passionate about it. It is utterly indispensable. I love the team. It’s been a privilege to work there under two great editors in @esmewren and @stewartmaclean
Read 7 tweets
Jun 17
Spent the day back in northern France talking to those in the camps. What’s striking, is how similar the mood is to November, just after the catastrophe on the Channel. Fear yes, of the seas and now Rwanda- yet total resolution to make it across, all the same. This is why (🧵) ImageImageImageImage
Are people terrified about Rwanda? Yes. There is a real bleaknesss in the camps about it and the volunteers tells us how low some people are about it. Some whispered darkly to us about it pushing a few of those who are most psychologically damaged “over the edge.”
But is the feeling that it’s deterring anyone who is here at the moment? No. And that’s for very similar reasons as to why the deaths in November didn’t deter either. And you have to understand the psychology of those here to understand why.
Read 21 tweets
Jun 16
Bank of England raises base rate to 1.25%. Fifth consecutive rise and first time since 2009 that rate has been above 1%.
Despite ongoing hikes Sterling continues to perform poorly against dollar and euro.
BoE still forecasts inflation to reach 11%- highest level since the early 1980s.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 15
On Geidt, Lord Turnbull former Cabinet Secretary tells #Newsnight: “It’s very, v serious, to have 2 resignations…on the other hand it changed absolutely nothing- because the charge sheet of Boris Johnson’s conduct is now so long that one more accusation will make no difference.”
Lord Turnbull: “This matter is not going to be solved by ministerial advisers. It’s going to be solved when enough of his backbenchers can summon up the courage to say that he’s not a man of sufficient integrity that they don’t want him as their leader.” #Newsnight
Turnbull: “In the opinion of many people, myself included, he [Boris Johnson] is not worthy of the office.”

This is a former Cabinet Secretary speaking about an incumbent Prime Minister. It’s not typical.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 15
The Prime Minister has lost his second Independent Adviser on Ministerial Standards in seven months. gov.uk/government/new…
The office of Independent Adviser on Ministerial Interests has only existed since 2006. Only five men have held the job. Two of them have resigned under Boris Johnson.
It took five months to fill the job after Alex Allan resigned. Serious questions about whether anyone credible can be found to fill it now. Once again the standards system is in complete limbo, to put it mildly.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 15
On NI Protocol proposals new 🇩🇪 Ambassador to 🇬🇧 tells @BBCWorldatOne: “We’ve no doubt it’s illegal and the arguments put forward are not convincing. This question that you ratify an agreement and then skip it because you don’t like it…this draft leaves the NIP an empty shell.”
The Ambassador went on: “The British govt should consider that other countries will watch very closely what’s going to happen. China, Russia, others will watch about legality of agreements and how the British govt is dealing with that.”
Ambassador rejects claims that the EU has been too doctrinaire. Says that they “have not seen serious engagement from the British government” on the key questions.
Read 4 tweets

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