Thread by @chriswratil

🇩🇪 will support EU candidate status for 🇺🇦 in upcoming #EUCO summit but will demand EU structural reforms to make 🇪🇺 ready! So far, so good. But let’s look at what #scholz German gov see as key points of this reform. Longish 🧵/ rant! Take a deep breath…

sueddeutsche.de/politik/bundes…

According to @SZ the first proposal from the chancellor’s office is the abolishment of vetos — particularly in foreign policy. Why is foreign policy mentioned? Because in most areas vetos actually don’t exist anymore. EU takes about 85-90% of legislative decisions by majority…

Most of the remaining areas are „sensitive“. States have decided to not move to majority voting bc they fear vital national interests could be compromised. Key areas beyond foreign policy are indirect taxation and justice & home affairs. Why should states feel differently now?…

Having seen 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 lukewarm support for an Eastern European neighbor fighting an existential war, it’s unclear why CEECs should subject their foreign policy to a Western European majority. „We just demonstrated we don’t care about your interests but let us decide for you anyways!“

Why is taxation not mentioned? Why is EU multiannual budget not mentioned? Would 🇩🇪 be willing to concede its veto on such issues? Make itself subject to a South-East coalition that increases 🇩🇪💴🇪🇺 contributions & reshapes tax policy? So far proposal looks like cherry-picking…

But would fewer vetos even change decision-making & make EU ready to „digest“ another player 🇺🇦? The EU’s experience is mixed at best. While ~85% of decisions are *legally* taken by majority, the overwhelming fraction of them are in reality taken by consensus — EVERYONE agrees…

EU decision-making is much more about informal norms than formal rules: expectations to accommodate, to respect interests, to reciprocate & craft package deals making everyone happy. Research has found bargaining power to be roughly equal btw states — no matter the decision rule!

The real challenge then is not to change formal rules but to change 🇪🇺 decision-making culture: make players accept defeat & trust in long-term „big picture“ benefits of cooperation instead of becoming outraged about being outvoted. No abolishment of national vetos helps if…

The outvoted governments go home & start EU blame rants in domestic media. If 🇩🇪 gov wants to change this, it should start with itself & ask how it can increase trust across the EU that a majoritarian 🇪🇺 will be good for everyone. 🇬🇷🇪🇸🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪 will certainly have ideas on that…

(To be sure: I am for abolishing vetos in the long run, but 1) it must be comprehensive, in several areas to be acceptable to everyone, 2) it’s not a panacea, 3) it must be preceded or, at least, accompanied by a culture change.)

The second 🇩🇪 proposal @SZ is increasing the number of 🇩🇪 MEPs @Europarl_EN, as Germany has relatively few compared to population. It is not only unclear how this would solve any issues with 🇺🇦 accession, it is also cheap EU bashing & dangerous questioning of existing bargains…

In every federal system one can find things that appear unfair to some states. Why do California & Wyoming have the same number of senators? We can’t view such issues in isolation, they are the results of complex bargains & balancing. Looking only at number of 🇩🇪 MEPs misses…

That majority rule in @EUCouncilPress in which states representing 65% of EU population can pass proposals provides strong & population proportionate representation to 🇩🇪. I am not aware of a federal country providing something similar to its large states (not even 🇩🇪 Bundesrat).

And @EUCouncilPress is by far most powerful institution in EU decision-making. Hence, this proposal is nothing but provocative.

In contrast, key EP reforms from 🚦 coalition agreement like transnational lists & binding lead candidates for Commission President are not mentioned.

In total, these 🇩🇪 proposals look crude, unhelpful & targeted at domestic audience. It would be good if #scholz looks at the 🚦 coalition agreement’s EU chapter again, which has much more exciting ideas for the future of Europe! 👇

spd.de/fileadmin/Doku…

(BTW @SZ there seems to be a potential mistake in the article as you claim that there are „deutliche Verzerrungen“ in voting weights in @EUCouncilPress. Unclear what these biases should be, as voting weights are population-based.)

Might be of interest to @simonjhix @CatherineDVries @BrigidLaffan @rdanielkelemen @FrancescoNicoli @so_proksch @sarahobolt @a_gellinek @markuspreiss @alexstubb @anandMenon1 @moritzkoerner @daniel_freund @AndrewDuffEU @ggbenedetto