John Pfaff Profile picture
Jun 22 5 tweets 2 min read
He doesn’t, because he can’t (other than maybe a few ppl #onhere, which is …. not “orthodoxy”).

The claim is never that lethal violence hasn’t risen, it’s that traditional tough-on-crime approaches aren’t where we should prioritize more resources.
Also, I can’t quite figure out the point of the piece. Because ppl are easily fear-mongered by crime, everyone should just lean into that?

Like, how do you change an equilibrium without … pushing on it?
Also: sigh.

Hamid is an expert on the Middle East. Looks like a really thoughtful one.

I’m an expert on prosecutors and prisons. Think I’m fairly thoughtful. Have you seen my latest in Slate on Tunisia’s politics? No. No you haven’t.
I try not to be a “stay in your lane” type. I really do.

But not EVERYONE has a good take on crime policy. It is—like all major social phenomena—really complex.

But who HASN’T written on it lately? It’s getting frustrating.
Also, that Larry Krasner guy he talks abt a lot seems, at least in his eyes, to have made a lot of blunders.

I wonder what happened to him. Gotta think that sank his political career.

(Never once mentions that Krasner won—and by bigger margins where violence was the most.)

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More from @JohnFPfaff

Jun 23
Even if gun control laws work (more on the data there in a moment), that doesn't mean they are the only option.

In fact, perhaps they were never even the best option, given the breadth of gun ownership in the US, just the quickest to enact.
Now there is, in fact, evidence that gun control laws work. And that when they don't, it may be due to the black market--which we can target as well!

(The black market is not a "oh well, what can you do?" problem, tho it is often invoked that way). ImageImageImage
But think this quote by @CaterinaGRoman is imp to keep in mind: the lege often likes law-enforcement based responses bc they are fast and easy. Maybe we need to focus on other, less-law enforcement centered approaches.

(All screenshots so far are from: johnjayrec.nyc/wp-content/upl…) Image
Read 6 tweets
Jun 9
I've mentioned this before, but bears repeating: Breaking the Pendulum, by Goodman, Page, and @MichelleSPhelps, is essential reading to understand the politics of punishment during periods of change (or even what leads to periods of change).
The neatness with which we categorize past shifts from punitive to progressive and back makes those transitions seems inevitable, which makes them seem predictable.

Their core point is that they were never inevitable, and often the product of various sorts of shocks.
As it is now. The financial crisis of 2008 ushered in a uneasy alliance that pushed for (some) reforms. Covid upended that, George Floyd's murder destabilized more (and why did THAT one catch fire, not previous ones?), then the homicide spike, now the police failure of Uvalde...
Read 4 tweets
Jun 8
Not ONE WORD that a progressive came in first in Alameda County. Not even a single word that Alameda exists.

No effort, at all, to distinguish mayoral races from DA races (they’re different!).

No mention of the progressive win in Des Moines.
Also, the article ONLY interviews ppl involved in CA politics.

By not talking to ppl running in local races elsewhere (other than one or two Congressional types), it actually provides basically no evidence for its own central claim abt “national” implications.
At least the Times has been consistent—Krasner’s win showed the national strength, Boudin’s loss its national weakness.

That there’s only 1 year between these takes suggests maybe both are a little too hasty.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 7
Does anyone want to publish my take on the realities of string theory? on the impact of 13th century Islamic art on Euro architecture? on the cinematic quality of 1970s dystopias?

No. They shouldn't.

But anyone can get their take on crime policy and politics published anywhere.
Criminologists: I study gang violence, so I'm hesitant to talk about mass shootings.

Pundits: I'VE THOUGHT ABOUT THIS FOR FIVE MINUTES, AND I CAN SOLVE CRIME TOMORROW.
Just bc crime policy is a Really Big Topic right now does not mean that everyone has to write on it.

It's not just noise. Often, it's misguided oversimplifications published in some of the most valuable writing real estate out there.

It likely makes policy worse.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 7
When trying to understand why outcomes in the US look so different from Europe's, this is an intriguing point to keep in mind.

You also see it when you look at police-per-capita numbers as well (from UN data).

It's less scope, more how we use them.

But, some important caveats: Image
1. "Police" is a term that takes on a lot of different definitions. One reply several made to my police-per-capita graph is that in Europe, lots of jobs that they call police we don't (like, perhaps, passport control). So their "ppl patrolling streets" rate may be lower.
2. Official police budgets may significantly understate police spending. Chicago's big settlement bill comes out of general fund resources. Where are pensions hiding? Vera found for corrections that ~14% of spending wasn't in the corrections budget. Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 7
When crim legal reporters says a story is insane, it’s insane.

Detained for almost three weeks in a poorly-run jail during pre-vax Covid based on an egregious misidentification without ever being told the charges.

The misidentification piece is perhaps the most telling:
The utter indifference to the implications of the arrest here. No one checked Lowe’s pic against the video camera before arresting him and locking him in jail for over two weeks.

Just … basic due diligence before upending someone’s life. ImageImage
And this is a good rebuttal to the common police complaint that there’s no punishment when DAs don’t prosecute. Arrest and pre-dismissal detention are often quite punitive themselves. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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