Olga Onuch (Онух) Profile picture
Jun 23, 2022 17 tweets 13 min read Read on X
🧵1) Ukrainians have been dying 4 European values + chance 2 join EU since 2014! That’s not why they deserve #candidatestatus. #Ukraine deserves candidate status because even in context of war, economic crisis & pandemic their democracy strengthened & consolidated #EmbraceUkraine Image
2) Since 2014, in face of Russian invasion + pandemic - Ukrainians went to polls 8 times: 2 presidential (1 with 2 rounds), 2 parliamentary, 3 national local elections (1 at the height of the pandemic). All = free & fair. Unlike elsewhere in Europe voters shunned radical parties! Image
3) Since 2014 pol elite (although not without their moments of infighting) rallied around key reforms. 2014-2019 we saw numerous reforms with most important in transparency & decentralization. Latter = hugely successful increased local faith in democracy Image
4) The NGO and civil society sector also became a prominent force in Ukrainian politics since 2014. Although civil society has been strong in Ukraine for decades it became more influential in not only holding politicians to account but also directly affecting policy decisions. ImageImage
5) Activism - already very strong in Ukraine and relying on a rich history dating back 2 the 1960s dissident groups - also developed over this period. We saw feminist, LGTBQ and environmental movements flourish in Ukraine. We also saw a large anticorruption movement in 2015-2019 Image
6) We saw the political system open up 2 next gen (like the euro optimists @Leshchenkos @mefimus @svitlanaza + @HopkoHanna among others) & outsiders of nomenklatura that mostly made up the economic & political field up2 2014. The most famous outsider being @ZelenskyyUa of course ImageImageImageImage
7) 2019 Presidential elections we saw a divisive campaign bring a large majority of Ukrainians together with huge majorities voting 4 outsider @ZelenskyyUa (who although a celebrity was in many ways very ordinary in his upbringing) & his party. Something we have never seen before ImageImage
8) The main campaign message from both @poroshenko & @ZelenskyyUa was about 🇺🇦European path. Zelenskyy dedicated large portions of his inaugural (& other) speech/es 2 it “Europe is not out there it is in here” [pointing 2 head] “it is a state of mind”! Image
9) This electoral message was so inspiring in its pro-European nature that we saw a major youth quake in Ukraine - young people voted at higher rates! Not a EuroMaidan generation effect (we as show in our paper) 1 of positive messaging around European values/goals #EmbraceUkraine ImageImageImage
10) What did Zelenskyy & Sluha Narodu do once in power - they got down 2 business passing legislation like cancelling of deputy immunity attempted by many parliaments before. They had a majority so they could do it alone but got help & worked with opp. parties #EmbraceUkraine Image
11) When in 2019/2020 Zelenskyy found his government embroiled in a US scandal - they fought back and surprisingly were able to stand their ground. Interestingly the US president & not the Ukrainian one came out much worse with Zelenskyy even gaining respect internationally. Image
12) When pandemic hit Zelenskyy continued his message of a United & European Ukraine stressing all Ukrainians regardless of religion, language they speak, or ethnic group all belong 2 Civic Ukrainian community & made clear “slava Ukraiini” was a civic Ukrainian rally call Image
13) As pandemic raged parliament continued its work & passed more landmark laws like that of land reform - something every predecessor talk about but could never get done. Sluha & Zelenskyy with help of @Euro_Solidarity & Holos expanded already successful decentralization Image
14) Yes, that’s right with multiple crises ongoing Ukrainian gov/Par worked together across party lines & got on with passing laws that brought prospects of EU accession closer! They got on with business of delivering. Period was far from perfect but was better than ever before! Image
15) And guess what Ukrainians seeing that their democracy is working doubled down on democracy. Since 2019 we saw exponential growth in support for democracy among ordinary Ukrainians. #EmbraceUkraine @EUCouncil @eucopresident Image
16) Ukrainians also moved to pro-Euroatlantist positions & have volunteered & kept up non violent civil resistance during WAR!!! If that’s not demonstrating Ukrainians commitment to democratic liberal (European) values then I don’t know what would. #EmbraceUkraine @eucopresident ImageImageImageImage
17) That’s the thing, Ukrainians have been doing all this European democratization stuff 4 long time. Their democracy was becoming fully consolidated & that’s why the Kremlin attacked Ukraine. NATO didn’t pose threat 2 authoritarian Russia a democratic Ukraine did!#EmbraceUkraine Image

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More from @oonuch

Jun 12
A 🧵ON NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE May/June 2024 @MOBILISEproject

70% of Ukrainians agree Zelenskyy should continue as president during martial law. Support ranges from 65% in the East to 74% in the South.

Full report with analysis here: mobiliseproject.com/wp-content/upl…

Image
NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE @MOBILISEproject

Zelenskyy's approval at 56%. Voting intentions show a tie between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi at 27%, with Poroshenko at 7%. Image
NEW POLLING DATA FROM UKRAINE @MOBILISEproject

Enthusiasm for Zelenskyy dropped from 33% in July 2022 to 8% in May 2024. Sympathy remains stable at 18%. Image
Read 11 tweets
Mar 8
Correcting bad takes on Amb. Zaluzhnyi & dozens of media request

🧵of my analysis (I’m on record voiceing this in briefings in Whitehall/Wesrminster 3 weeks back)

1) Those who r surprised by Zaluzhnyi being in the fold don’t know full back story & haven’t been privy to info
2) Importantly tensions were blown up to be larger than they were. Not least, as reported in @washingtonpost some of the reports were part of a Russian disinformation campaign from 2022.

Disagreements existed but not in way some interpreted.
3) Zaluzhny is a patriot and is committed 2 being part of the team & Zelensky wants him in the fold, just in a different role. You might not agree what role but that is not up to you.

Ukraine’s allies also want Zaluzhny in the fold. More on that to come.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 14
Shame @TorontoStar publishes such uninformed a-empirical navel grazing about what is & is not „rational.” See exert👇by some who has never studied Ukraine or the region properly.
1) If it is a war of attrition it is certainly also 1 that Russia cannot win. Image
2) Reminder in a democracy what citizens wantmatters - 80%+ of Ukrainians = vehemently opposed to ANY territorial concessions as @MOBILISEproject data show
Image
Image
3) But to be clear not only does popular will matter in a democracy normatively & de jure, it also should be a major concern of any serious (be it realist or ratchoice) analysts when suggesting a likely war game outcome.

Understanding human capital in a democracy 1 also understands limits of possible & probably actions actors - the analysts purport to know - can make.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 3
On the 9th day of new Ukrainian Christmas
@MOBILISEproject
#poliscinerds gave to me
9 main news sources
8/10 civilian resistance
7 citizen facts
6 language facts
5 years of financial data
4 priorities
3 leaders
2 preferences
1 support 4 democracy
Image
Image
MOBILISE PROJECT PANEL DATA
Nationally Representative Survey
Collected by KIIS
CATI mode N= 1,200 - 2,000
Margin of error is no greater than 3.3% for 50%+
All data nationally representative of the 18+ population
All data weighted to the population
What media do Ukrainians consume for political news?
The main story here is that TV viewership has gone down and significantly whilst internet use for new has gone up from 64% of those using the internet for news in 2019 to 90% in 2023. Image
Read 11 tweets
Sep 3, 2023
Who is @rustem_umerov you might be asking & how should his replacing @oleksiireznikov be interpreted?

“The Ministry needs new approaches &…formats of interaction with both army & society… Fall is a time to strengthen.” Said @ZelenskyyUa in his address.

Small 🧵

1
Umerov was Holos Party MP & not Ze or Sluha inner circle & is Crimean Tatar
His appointment is signal of
- constructive cooperation with pol factions that are at times very critical of Ze
- 🇺🇦 won’t give up on - a pushback to mistaken US analysts trying to force negotiations.
2
Umerov was a participant in the March 2022 peace negotiations. He is not an outsider. He is not inexperienced. He is not unknown among Ukrainian leaders (political or military), Ukraine’s allies or among the Russians. But he also has respect & contacts in Turkey & Saudi Arabia
3
Read 8 tweets
Jul 20, 2023
When reporting on Russia’s announcement of their blockade of grain shipments from Ukraine through the Black Sea please remember the following a🧵

1. Instead of using language such as “halted” “deal” make sure you use language that explains that this is “Russia’s blockade” 1/n
2. Not only is this an aggressive Russian blockade on 🇺🇦 grain shipments raising global grain prices (benefitting major grain producers that ramped up production 🇷🇺🇧🇷) it is also a tactic used to terrorize poorer countries in global south that are dependent on these exports. 2/n
3. 🇷🇺 is makes money from these actions.
RU remains 1 of the largest global exporters of grain.
RU increased production & signed deals with countries 4 shipments of grain.
RU benefits from blockade sparked price rises.
THERE ARE NO SANCTIONS ON 🇷🇺 ARGICULTURAL SHIPMENTS.
3/n
Read 10 tweets

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