🧵1) Ukrainians have been dying 4 European values + chance 2 join EU since 2014! That’s not why they deserve #candidatestatus. #Ukraine deserves candidate status because even in context of war, economic crisis & pandemic their democracy strengthened & consolidated #EmbraceUkraine
2) Since 2014, in face of Russian invasion + pandemic - Ukrainians went to polls 8 times: 2 presidential (1 with 2 rounds), 2 parliamentary, 3 national local elections (1 at the height of the pandemic). All = free & fair. Unlike elsewhere in Europe voters shunned radical parties!
3) Since 2014 pol elite (although not without their moments of infighting) rallied around key reforms. 2014-2019 we saw numerous reforms with most important in transparency & decentralization. Latter = hugely successful increased local faith in democracy
4) The NGO and civil society sector also became a prominent force in Ukrainian politics since 2014. Although civil society has been strong in Ukraine for decades it became more influential in not only holding politicians to account but also directly affecting policy decisions.
5) Activism - already very strong in Ukraine and relying on a rich history dating back 2 the 1960s dissident groups - also developed over this period. We saw feminist, LGTBQ and environmental movements flourish in Ukraine. We also saw a large anticorruption movement in 2015-2019
6) We saw the political system open up 2 next gen (like the euro optimists @Leshchenkos@mefimus@svitlanaza + @HopkoHanna among others) & outsiders of nomenklatura that mostly made up the economic & political field up2 2014. The most famous outsider being @ZelenskyyUa of course
7) 2019 Presidential elections we saw a divisive campaign bring a large majority of Ukrainians together with huge majorities voting 4 outsider @ZelenskyyUa (who although a celebrity was in many ways very ordinary in his upbringing) & his party. Something we have never seen before
8) The main campaign message from both @poroshenko & @ZelenskyyUa was about 🇺🇦European path. Zelenskyy dedicated large portions of his inaugural (& other) speech/es 2 it “Europe is not out there it is in here” [pointing 2 head] “it is a state of mind”!
9) This electoral message was so inspiring in its pro-European nature that we saw a major youth quake in Ukraine - young people voted at higher rates! Not a EuroMaidan generation effect (we as show in our paper) 1 of positive messaging around European values/goals #EmbraceUkraine
10) What did Zelenskyy & Sluha Narodu do once in power - they got down 2 business passing legislation like cancelling of deputy immunity attempted by many parliaments before. They had a majority so they could do it alone but got help & worked with opp. parties #EmbraceUkraine
11) When in 2019/2020 Zelenskyy found his government embroiled in a US scandal - they fought back and surprisingly were able to stand their ground. Interestingly the US president & not the Ukrainian one came out much worse with Zelenskyy even gaining respect internationally.
12) When pandemic hit Zelenskyy continued his message of a United & European Ukraine stressing all Ukrainians regardless of religion, language they speak, or ethnic group all belong 2 Civic Ukrainian community & made clear “slava Ukraiini” was a civic Ukrainian rally call
13) As pandemic raged parliament continued its work & passed more landmark laws like that of land reform - something every predecessor talk about but could never get done. Sluha & Zelenskyy with help of @Euro_Solidarity & Holos expanded already successful decentralization
14) Yes, that’s right with multiple crises ongoing Ukrainian gov/Par worked together across party lines & got on with passing laws that brought prospects of EU accession closer! They got on with business of delivering. Period was far from perfect but was better than ever before!
15) And guess what Ukrainians seeing that their democracy is working doubled down on democracy. Since 2019 we saw exponential growth in support for democracy among ordinary Ukrainians. #EmbraceUkraine@EUCouncil@eucopresident
16) Ukrainians also moved to pro-Euroatlantist positions & have volunteered & kept up non violent civil resistance during WAR!!! If that’s not demonstrating Ukrainians commitment to democratic liberal (European) values then I don’t know what would. #EmbraceUkraine@eucopresident
17) That’s the thing, Ukrainians have been doing all this European democratization stuff 4 long time. Their democracy was becoming fully consolidated & that’s why the Kremlin attacked Ukraine. NATO didn’t pose threat 2 authoritarian Russia a democratic Ukraine did!#EmbraceUkraine
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Russian intel driving “new” strategy (take SE) is wrong & won’t result in “win” & strategic goal. There’s a reason why RU hasn’t been able 2 fully take Mariupol/most cities in Donbas after 2 months & it’s the same reason when hey tried & failed 2 take Mariupol in 2014/15 a🧵1/8
Mariupol 2014/15 ordinary LOCAL Russian speaking Ukrainians (workers at plants) organized community patrol groups 2 protect their city! Oligarchs backed & the UKR army (with help of volunteer battalions) defended. But it was ordinary local folks who defended what was “theirs” 2/8
When war began in 2014 median recruit was a local (from south East) male Russian speaker. Majority of volunteers came from SE regions. When we visited Ukrainian controlled Donetsk it was Eerie because all local men of fighting age were absent they volunteered 2 defend Donbas. 3/8
I am puzzled by political scientists unwillingness to accept that maybe the surveys are not wrong & that maybe, in fact, Russians did rally around the flag & moved in their willingness to back the war once it started. 🧵1/3
We should understand how motivated reasoning works & the activation of affective identity. State TV propaganda has been focused on affective ID & tapped into underlying beliefs among Russians that Ukrainians although a brotherly nation is one lower in rank. 2/3
& 1 that should submit 2 Russian demands. Humiliation of 1st weeks only further allowed 4 formation of collective beliefs about blame attribution. Once losses experienced instead of blaming themselves Russians find blame outside of their in-group & blame “lower” Ukrainians. 3/3
“This symposium employs established social science theory to frame and place into comparative perspective the case of Belarusian mass mobilization that began in August 2020.” @GwendolynSasse@oonuchtandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 2/n
#DataForUkraine we know 3 hrs sooner than media of potential warm crimes with this data on human rights abuses. The spikes mean a significant event has occurred. Our detailed data= when what & how & will be helpful to @DmytroKuleba@ICJ_org@ECHR_CEDH@hrw@HRF@UNHumanRights 2/7
#DataForUkraine we know 3 hrs sooner than the media can report of major internal displacement & displaced people fleeing on the move. Again, spikes mean a significant event of displacement has occurred. Our detailed data let’s us know where that is happening. 3/7