Thread by @KeithAdamTaylor

🧵 If the Tories lose both of today's byelections in #Wakefield and #TivertonandHoniton they'll no doubt rely on the defence Johnson floated earlier today: governing parties don't win byelections.

Unfortunately for Johnson this claim is solid gold bollocks of the highest order.

During Blair's first parliament, 1997-2001, Labour defended eight seats at byelections, and Labour won every single one of them.

During Blair's second parliament, 2001-2005, there were six byelections, all of them defended by Labour. Labour won four of the six.

During the third Labour parliament of Blair/Brown, 2005-2010, nine seats were defended by the governing party, and they won four.

During the Cameron/May years the Tories defended seven seats at byelections. They won just three, though two losses (Rochester and Clacton) were incumbent Tory MPs seeking re-election after defecting to UKIP. It could be argued that they don't count.

And now we come to Boris Johnson's ignominious tenure. Since he became PM Johnson has defended, including today's byelections, a total of seven seats. If he loses in both Wakefield (almost certain) and Tiverton (quite likely) he'll have secured just two wins, a shocking record.

So the scores on the board - assuming the Tories lose both seats today - are:

Blair/Brown gov: Defended 23, Won 17, Lost 6. Wins: 73.9%

Cameron/May gov: Defended 7, Won 3, Lost 4. Wins: 42.85%

Johnson gov: Defended 7, Won 2, Lost 5. Wins: 28.57%

So of course Johnson is lying to you, because Johnson is constitutionally incapable of telling the truth when it conflicts with his ego.

Since 1997 the government won almost 60% of the seats they defended. Obviously, because they have a considerable incumbency advantage.

What Johnson *should* say is that unpopular governments generally don't win byelections. Tired, worn out, directionless governments don't win. Governments led by ineffective Prime Ministers who make life worse for voters don't win. Corrupt, scandal-ridden governments don't win.

Blair won 13 of the 16 byelections he defended. Brown lost three of the seven he fought, and then he was soon wheeled off to the backbenches to finish out his parliamentary career in peace.

The incumbent *should* win byelections, because they have a huge built in advantage. Of the 174 UK byelections since 1979 the incumbent has held their seat 73% of the time. It's a *massive* upset when a sitting MP is turfed out by the electorate mid-term.

But it keeps happening to Boris Johnson's #Conservatives, because it's a governing party and a Prime Minister both well past their sell by date, and they're starting to smell decidedly ripe.

So when Johnson and his most obedient parrots tell you over the next few days and weeks that the odds were heavily stacked against them, that it would have taken a miracle for them to win, that they're perfectly comfortable losing, know that they're talking out of their ass. /End