Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #TivertonandHoniton

Most recents (12)

You might conclude there are no data on lab lib overt/covert pacts.

You wonder. Has no one analysed whether to compete?

TLDR you'd be right to ask. And maybe then surprised. The bigger issue is that 75% of #Johnson's seats are due to a huge mess-up on this in 2019
Data follow⬇️
Ok first #TivertonandHoniton #Wakefield

Was it worth lab and lib striking local "non-compete" agreements?


LSE analysis shows⬇️📈vote share can shift ~5-30% just by not competing. Or this week maybe a darn lot more.…
Someone may want to argue lib dems do slightly better.

They do.
But that's because they start far smaller
AND it's easier for marginal voters to settle on centrist.

Also that effect is minor vs the boost labour gets from LD where they need it.

But one more thing...
Read 8 tweets
One thing heard during our campaign in #TivertonandHoniton:

“Why do you liberals leaflet SO MUCH? THINK OF THE PLANET!”

Hear it 4, 5, or 6 times during a 200 leaflet round and it starts to get to your volunteers…

But let’s do a bit of number crunching…
🧵 1/
Over the last 3ish months, @LibDems delivered 800,000 bits of paper across #TivertonandHoniton

Sounds a lot, right? It was. It took a gargantuan effort from 1,000s of dedicated volunteers

Let’s compare those numbers with the hate-filled rag that is the Daily Mail

Last available normal figures (pre-Covid) show the DM printing 980,000 copies per day. At 144 pages per copy that’s 141 million pages (141,120,000 to be precise

Read 5 tweets
So on this historic day the #TivertonandHoniton win,
let's consider I was a whopping 42 years old before my vote counted for something *other* than the 'same-old, same-old'.

Let that sink in for a second.

I've always been politically engaged my entire life. I have voted in every election, incl MEPs (yes those who are apparently 'unelected') & council ones, since I came of age.
Hell, I even voted when I was IN LABOUR - and by that I mean literally in the process of giving birth.
I have sent letters to my MP, gone to various meetings, read everything I can, spoken to candidates ... the works.

Yet despite all that, the ONLY reason my vote really counted yesterday was an accident
Read 9 tweets
Think it was Andy Burnham who coined Labour’s “Hampstead-Hull” internal tension after Brexit. One cabinet minister very recently told me the “Hartlepool-Hampshire” challenge was as great for Conservatives’ newish coalition…

#TivertonandHoniton #wakefield
Our @alexforsythBBC with the PM 6000 miles away in Kigali, says there is silence so far this morning from the PM’s camp… and points out he is not due back in the country for another 8 days… also attending the NATO summit in Madrid and G7 summit in Bavaria, after CHOGM
Must have known when moving the writ for both by-elections, a choice of the whip of the party that previously won seat, about the PM’s 12000 mile week long trip attending these three summits, and so presumably someone thought it was a smart idea…
Read 11 tweets
Helen Hurford has shut herself in a room at the #TivertonandHoniton byelection count and is refusing to speak to any press
(The room in question had been specifically put aside for the media to hold interviews… very disgruntled press pack here)
Read 3 tweets
By-election night thread! Polls have just closed at the #Wakefieldbyelection and the #TivertonandHonitonByElection. Analysis follows


Load up on coffee as it's going to be a late one. BBC suggested earlier that declarations could be around 4am...
In terms of likely outcomes I'll have much more on this later, but little doubt that #Wakefield (for which polls have been published) is going back to Labour, whereas #TivertonandHoniton (where none have) is murkier, but Lib Dems I've heard from seem much happier than Tories...
I’ll be talking a lot about swing, and it’s notable that the national picture is somewhat murky too (part random variation aka margin of error, part systematic differences between pollsters aka house effects) but on average GB polls are showing about a 9% swing from CON to LAB ImageImage
Read 36 tweets
🧵 If the Tories lose both of today's byelections in #Wakefield and #TivertonandHoniton they'll no doubt rely on the defence Johnson floated earlier today: governing parties don't win byelections.

Unfortunately for Johnson this claim is solid gold bollocks of the highest order.
During Blair's first parliament, 1997-2001, Labour defended eight seats at byelections, and Labour won every single one of them.
During Blair's second parliament, 2001-2005, there were six byelections, all of them defended by Labour. Labour won four of the six.
Read 13 tweets
By-election day in #TivertonandHoniton , so let me tell about their former MP, who was once one of the most famous people in England, a national hero, a disgraced fraudster, and an astonishingly accomplished piratical maniac.

He had quite a life. A painting of Thomas Cochra...
Admiral Sir Thomas Cochrane was born in 1775 in Hamilton, Scotland, and I should confess immediately that I really admire the guy.

I also think he was capable of epic twattery, and if he was alive now he'd be in jail or Downing Street. Probably both.

Same old same old.
Practically as soon as he was potty-trained, he began his career of indisputable heroism, technical innovation, radical politics, nepotism, corrupting elections, stock-market fraud, almost starting world wars, legalised piracy, mercenary warfare, and shameless bullshit.
Read 50 tweets
A message to voters in #TivertonandHoniton. 🧵

I have been a Tory supporter since I was a child. My parents were as Tory as they come, our home hosted MP surgeries. Our front room was often piled high with election literature and envelopes. That is my dad in the photo.➡️
I have had the privilege of meeting 3 Prime Ministers, Macmillan, Heath, and Douglas Home, who came to our home when he was Foreign Secretary. However, there are no circumstances in the world that could bring me to vote for Johnson.➡️
The Tory Party that I knew and supported stood for One Nation, for constitutionalism and respect for our legal system. Johnson stands for none of those things. Worse, he stands for only one thing, himself.➡️
Read 13 tweets
Wakefield, Tiverton and Honiton
🔶 Vote Lib Dem in Tiverton & Honiton
🌹 Vote Labour in Wakefield
A list of #toryrapist and #ToryCorruption
over the past few years, awaiting trial, convicted or just quietly disappeared (so you wouldn't notice)
Imran Ahmad Khan
The Conservative MP for Wakefield
was found guilty in April of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy after plying him with gin at a party in 2008
Khan assaulted the boy in Staffordshire in January 2008 He resigned as an MP two weeks after he was found guilty. Image
Rob Roberts
The Conservative MP for Delyn allowed to rejoin the party despite an independent investigation finding that he sexually harassed a junior member of staff
Roberts was suspended for 12 weeks after the independent panel found he had made “significant” repeated and ... Image
Read 29 tweets
In a really shocking week, this is the most shocking story. Boris Johnson promised Parliament that the full report would be published. But the @thesundaytimes reveals that it was doctored by Downing Street officials. He lied to Parliament @RhonddaBryant #Partygate
.@Mark_J_Harper If the report was doctored, then Boris Johnson lied to Parliament when told you that it would all be published @SamCoatesSky @bbclaurak @Peston @BBCWorldatOne @thesundaytimes @Gabriel_Pogrund @RhonddaBryant @HugoGye @hzeffman
Read 9 tweets

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