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Jun 24 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Think it was Andy Burnham who coined Labour’s “Hampstead-Hull” internal tension after Brexit. One cabinet minister very recently told me the “Hartlepool-Hampshire” challenge was as great for Conservatives’ newish coalition…

#TivertonandHoniton #wakefield
Our @alexforsythBBC with the PM 6000 miles away in Kigali, says there is silence so far this morning from the PM’s camp… and points out he is not due back in the country for another 8 days… also attending the NATO summit in Madrid and G7 summit in Bavaria, after CHOGM
Must have known when moving the writ for both by-elections, a choice of the whip of the party that previously won seat, about the PM’s 12000 mile week long trip attending these three summits, and so presumably someone thought it was a smart idea…
Quite the letter from resigned Chairman as due to do media round backing PM..

“V poor results”… party “distressed” after “recent events” & “someone has to take responsibility”. Dowden (with Sunak) 3 years ago penned key “only Boris can save us” piece

Dowden pulled out of the interview backing PM on @BBCBreakfast and was due to be replaced by the Deputy PM Raab, but that too didnt happen…
Sir John Curtice take, says these are Major era results for Johnson which is “not a happy precedent”…
Genuinely quite excited to hear who from Cabinet is going to do the 0810 interview on Today with @bbcnickrobinson …
It’s Raab, and he keeps on saying Govt has got 2 years to demonstrate it can deliver “without distractions”… which rather squashes the notion of an early election push…
1922 Treasurer Geoffrey Clifton Brown to @MishalHusain - parliamentary party will have to make a judgement as to whether a “satisfactory explanation” for by elections given by PM, “or whether we should actually take steps to have a new PM”

bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-p… via @BBCNews
This was after G C-B was asked as 1922 executive whether leadership challenge rules could be changed.

wouldn’t speculate, tho he would have a vote. all this refers to the below, which helped bring Johnson to power in 2019. “1922 executive could change the rules in an afternoon”
Chancellor confirms he is staying put…

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More from @faisalislam

Faisal Islam Profile picture
Jun 23
As ever - great insights from the ONS weekly economic data snapshot…

Eg Doughnut effect of economic activity displaced to suburbs in pandemic still evident from the Pret A Manger stats, but some city centres fully recovering eg Manchester

ons.gov.uk/economy/econom…
Job adverts 5% down overall… hearing of hiring freezes emerging - which could change picture in labour market over summer…
Interestingly nation/ region doing best on job adverts, much better than UK - nearly double pre pandemic levels -

Northern Ireland.

Perhaps partly due to fewer ads amid Brexit uncertainty over trade deal in 2020? But still notable amid claims of NI economic underperformance…
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Jun 21
How did we get from No 10 slapping down Gov Bailey after he suggested to me in Feb workers shouldn’t ask for excessive pay rises… to Govt now arguing wage rises shouldn’t rise with the cost of living ?

BLOG on imminent public sector pay reviews

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
… Timeline thread..
so within past year PM makes higher wages his central conference theme, & defines “wage growth” as single most important metric, more important than life expectancy/ cancer outcomes, by which to judge success or not of “levelling up”
detected immediate Treasury unease with this general view… and the Chancellor told me a few weeks later in October that everyone (ie including PM) accepted that higher wages without higher productivity would be inflationary…
Read 18 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Jun 17
NEW:

To dig down into our 4000 person survey on cost of living cutbacks, I go to Peterlee, Durham, for #BBCNewsSix /Ten, and hear some hard on the ground realities, on food bank donors becoming recipients, donations drying up, uncollected prescriptions

bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0…
NEW:

Treasury spells out publicly theres no “automaticity” between inflation & wages, expectations of public sector wage rises matching inflation are “unrealistic” and could lead to a 70s style inflationary crisis.
Pay review bodies now reporting back…

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Chief Secretary, when asked if people should expect wages to match inflation:

“some of the answer to that is pay. But what we can't do is have unrealistic expectations around pay, which do in turn prolong and intensify this endless inflation problem”
Read 7 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Jun 16
NEW

Bank of England raises base rates by 0.25% to 1.25%
Raises peak inflation forecast to 11%
Says Q2 GDP fall by 0.3%
Bank of England stops giving guidance about a series of rate rises, but says it will “act forcefully” if inflation proves persistent… seems a bit more dovish, but net net probably leaves us where we are
‘Not all excess inflation can be attributed to global events” says Bank of England…saying almost all categories of goods and services were showing elevated inflation. And that this is especially case for the UK, where core inflation is 8%, vs 3.8% in euro area, and 6.4% in US
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Jun 15
NEW:

Lord Geidt has tendered his resignation to the Prime Minister as Independent Adviser on Ministers’ Interests.

“With regret, I feel that it is right that I am resigning from my post as Independent Adviser on Ministers’ Interests.”

MORE on @BBCNewsnight tonight…
Lord Geidt said this only yesterday at an appearance in front of MPs…

Yesterday Lord Geidt said it was “reasonable” to say a PM issued with a fixed penalty notice “may have constituted not meeting” overarching duty “under ministerial code of complying with the law”…

Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Jun 14
Here’s what I found asking prime ministers and CEOs about chances of a UK-EU trade war re UK tearing up NI Brexit deal… while no one wants it, some preps for it are occurring, and even as played down in Brussels, not so in national capitals/ boardrooms:
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Heard from Volkswagen CEO, who told me British ambassador to Berlin had visited Wolfsburg HQ last month, and that on the trade war there was “a lot of communication going on” and said there’s a mutual interest in keeping trade open and “we will help”… German carmakers are back…
Irish PM told me at WEF that “hopefully” he wouldn’t have to even contemplate a trade war as it would be “shocking” and “unnecessary” & when pushed about whether lists of UK goods to tariff were being prepped, told me “we’re not going to get into the detail of anything like that”
Read 6 tweets

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