to get an idea what works
(decentralization + freedom)
and what doesn’t
(centralization + suppression)
@RayDalio@nfergus@peterfrankopan@nntaleb 33/
The main problem when you use history and macro theory to make inferences/predictions about the future is that both are falsifiable
You cannot prove many causal relationships in macro or in history.
Areas where Napoleon implemented his reforms (Code Civil, abolishing guilds, lowering the power of the Church, etc.) ...
@RayDalio@nfergus@peterfrankopan@nntaleb 36/
...had much better economic outcomes 100 years later compared to similar neighboring areas where Napoleon didn’t implement these reforms
Areas with more coastal exposure have worse economic outcomes than similar areas without coastal exposure.
Why?
Western expropriators enslaved more people from areas where it was easier to transfer them to a boat.
@RayDalio@nfergus@peterfrankopan@nntaleb 38/
Any grand conclusions made by comparing relative levels of GDP through time, cross-country are likely to be dead wrong.