Yesterday's 7.9% CPI didn't even take into account the escalation in prices due to the war in Ukraine and Russian sanctions.
Inflation will, unfortunately, continue to rise despite earlier trends of supply chain easing 😩
🧵 👇 1/ In my previous threads I first explained why the source of inflation this time wasn’t entirely monetary:
...without thinking about *all* other factors that might have caused B.
Dec 26, 2021 • 27 tweets • 8 min read
One of my favorite #Christmas-themed movies has to be Trading Places, the 1980s comedy staring Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd
The last scene in particular is what got me hooked :) It’s that classic ending that keeps you wondering.
Wanna know how they did it?
Thread 👇🧵 1/ we all know the story from Trading Places. Aykroyd plays a snobbish priviledged broker Louis Winthorpe ("the Third"), while Murphy plays a street con artist Billy Ray Valentine whose lives get reversed as a result of a bet between two cruel millionaires, the Duke brothers.
Because in 2021, over a period of 22 weeks, we have made stunningly accurate predictions of the #markets, and made a whopping 107% return from these predictions!
A quick thread 🧵on how we did this 👇 1/ First, how does #BASON work?
We ask people where they & their friends think the markets will end up at the end of each week, while applying network analysis to control for their groupthink bias.
Here’s a video explaining it:
Nov 15, 2021 • 28 tweets • 8 min read
What’s a yield curve? Why is it important? Why the inverted relationship btw bond yields and prices? And why do investors keep obsessing about it?
Everything you wanted to know about bond yields and the yield curve but were too afraid to ask – explained 😊 (27-point thread)👇🧵 1/ You’re probably aware that the 10-Y T-bill yield shot up from 0.5% in July ‘20 to 1.1% in Jan ’21, and then to its 1.7% March peak.
It fell back to 1.2% in Jul, shot up to 1.6% in mid-Oct, and is jumping around from one inflation report to the next.
Why does this matter?
Nov 9, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Last week the #BASON once again called 8 out of 9 in the right direction, and once again had pinpoint accuracy for the Dow (0.6% error), the S&P (1.2% error), oil (0.5% error), TSLA (1.9% error), while the AAPL price prediction was almost perfect (0.02% error!).
In terms of collected profits on the trading strategy, this was the best week yet.
Our weekly profit was $2045, or an average 146% return!
This doubled our weekly winnings, and our total profits for the first 4 weeks stand at $4100.
Nov 8, 2021 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has gone down 52% since its early October peak (largest peak since '08)
Last time it went down so quickly was just before the '08 crisis, announcing the collapse of international trade.
But in today's context, is this good news or bad news?
👇🧵 1/ The BDI, listed on the London-based Baltic Exchange, measures the costs of transporting various important raw materials by sea (e.g. coal, iron ore, grain).
It takes into account shipping routes, timing of delivery, ship capacity, and is a widely used benchmark in shipping.
Nov 2, 2021 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
An options investment strategy based on our #BASON predictions has delivered a 49.9% return since May, compared to a 10% passive S&P return.
And all that while not even running during August and September!
A quick thread on how it works? 👇🧵 1/ This 50% return is actually severely underestimated, given that we took a portfolio of $10,000 where we only invest $1000 each week (the risk is greater actually, we risk to lose $1000 used to buy the call options, and $600 on the iron condor).
Oct 24, 2021 • 26 tweets • 6 min read
There has been ample talk about an upcoming market #crash ever since, well, the previous crash.
People point to, among other things, Shiller’s CAPE ratio, at a 38 multiple (second highest ever).
How do we know if we really are in a #bubble? A thread is due.
Let’s dive in👇🧵 1/ Is there anything we can use to tell whether a market is indeed in a bubble? To borrow a quote from The Big Short:
Lawrence Fields: “Actually, no one can see a bubble... that's what makes it a bubble.”
Michael Burry: “That's dumb, Lawrence. There are always markers.”
Oct 21, 2021 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Today $DWAC went up 365% after a merger with #Trump’s new media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the idea of which is to launch an alternative social network to disrupt the FAANGs.
I read TMTG’s pitch deck (did MY OWN research!!!) and here’s what I think👇🧵 1/ The idea is to create a new media powerhouse, with a streaming and news service that aims to disrupt CNN, $NFLX & $DIS+ (Fox news too?), and take on $AMZN in the long run.
The biggest impact ofc was the announcement of launching a new social network to disrupt $FB and $TWTR
Oct 18, 2021 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
Natural gas prices have gone up 220% since March this year. Oil has gone up 140% in the same period (and 440% from its April 2020 trough).
Why is this happening? Time for a quick (14-tweet) thread. 👇🧵 1/ Commodity and energy prices are basically all following a similar trend. Huge post-COVID demand + limited supply and supply chain bottlenecks = high prices