Michael McFaul Profile picture
Jun 26 7 tweets 3 min read
When #G7 leaders meet tomorrow, increasing pressure on Russia to help speed the end of Putin's invasion of Ukraine should be a top priority. Regarding sanctions, some say nothing more can be done. Our International Working Group on Russian Sanctions disagrees. THREAD 1/
On how to strengthen financial sanctions, read our "Working Group Paper #4: Strengthening Financial Sanctions against the Russian Federation," drive.google.com/file/d/1_0wsGm…. 2/
On how to strengthen individual sanctions, read our "Working Group Paper #3: Individual Sanctions Roadmap: Recommendations for Sanctions against
the Russian Federation." drive.google.com/file/d/1NzzeTa… 3/
On how to strengthen energy sanctions, read our "Working Group Paper #2: Energy Sanctions Roadmap: Recommendations for Sanctions against
the Russian Federation." drive.google.com/file/d/1FP3R-j… 4/
And on our new ideas for strengthening sanctions along many dimensions, see our original paper, "Working Group Paper #1: Action Plan on Strengthening Sanctions against the Russian Federation." drive.google.com/file/d/1Kte4W9… 5/
And dont believe the Russian propaganda. Sanctions are not damaging the global economy. Putin's war is. For elaboration, read this: drive.google.com/file/d/1iQi69X… 6/
The #G7 summit takes place at a pivotal moment in the war in Ukraine. The free world must help stop Putin's invasion of democratic Ukraine. Sanctions remain an important tool to achieve this objective, G7 leaders, lead, do the right thing, and help stop this barbaric war. 7/ END.

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More from @McFaul

Jun 15
Important essay from @ProfPaulPoast distinguishing realism's dual functions as theory and policy, or what I would label explanation vs prescription. Liberalism has the same dual traits. But as a theory, why is there no correction/updating when the explanation is wrong? THREAD 1/
Mearsheimer (and others) is arguing nearly the exact same thing today as he did 3 decades ago. For instance, the predictions from realism in his 1990 article were wrong. "Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War." jstor.org/stable/2538981…. 2/
Maybe I missed it, but I see little evidence of Mearsheimer has amended his theoretical claims based on the evidence not supporting his hypothesis from 30 years ago. So that's why the lines between theory, prediction & ideology seem so blurry in this scientific field. 3/ END
Read 5 tweets
Jun 4
After 100 days of Putin's unprovoked, barbaric invasion of Ukraine, let's remember the forest and trees. Putin is winning a few battles now. He may win more. But he has lost his war already. 1/ THREAD
Let's remember what Putin outlined as his war objectives. In his long essay about Ukraine, his hour-long speech before the war & many other times, Putin was very clear about what he aimed to achieve. So far, he's achieved very little. 2/
Putin explained to us that Russians and Ukrainians were one nation -- Ukrainians are just Russians with accents. He aimed to reunite this nation, torn apart as much by the Bolsheviks as the West. Regarding this objective, he has failed miserably. 3/
Read 15 tweets
May 28
In addition to Morgenthau, let me quote another high priest of realism arguing against appeasement with whom I agree. 1/ THREAD.
“Appeasement contradicts the dictates of offensive realism and therefore it is a fanciful and dangerous strategy. It is unlikely to transform a dangerous foe into a kinder, nicer, opponent, much less a peace-loving state." 2/
"Indeed, appeasement is likely to whet, not shrink, an aggressor’s appetite for conquest." 3/
Read 4 tweets
May 28
Lots of self-proclaimed "realists" are arguing these days that appeasing Putin by giving him Donbas will end his invasion. But it should be noted that scholars from the realist tradition have also argued the exact opposite. 1/ THREAD.
"Appeasement is a foreign policy that attempts to meet the threat of imperialism with methods appropriate to a policy of the status quo. Appeasement tries to deal with imperialism as though it were a policy of the status quo." 2/
"It errs in transferring a policy of compromise from a political environment favorable to the preservation of the status, where to belongs, to an environment exposed to imperialist attack, where it does not belong." 3/
Read 5 tweets
May 25
When I worked at @WHNSC and @StateDept, I observed that decision-makers tended to overstate the risks of action and underestimate the risks of inaction. Non-decisions are decisions with consequences too. THREAD 1/
The current debate about whether to give Ukraine MLRS is a serious one. I'm not privy to all the secret intel that NATO leaders have. But NOT transferring this weapon system has consequences too. Is it really in the US and NATO to allow Putin to occupy all of Donbas? 2/
And if Putin takes Donbas, why do people assume he will stop there? Nothing whets the appetite of an invader to try to take more territory than short-term victories. 3/
Read 9 tweets
May 24
3 months after invading Ukraine, Putin has failed to achieve all of his major war objectives. 1/ THREAD
Putin believes that Ukrainians are just Russians with accents. His major war objective was to “reunite” this alleged “one nation.” He failed dramatically at achieving this objective. 2/
Before invading, Putin promised “denazification.” He aimed to overthrow the Zelensky government. He failed . 3/
Read 7 tweets

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