Haaland has been one of the deadliest strikers in the world for the last few years, outperforming his xG every single season in the Bundesliga with Dortmund, as this image from Understat reflects –
Haaland is among the top forwards for most attacking metrics in the last year, as can be seen from the comparison table taken from FBRef.
Note the high number of shots taken p90, as well as touches in the penalty area – he is a high-volume shooter and gets on the end of moves.
A look at Haaland’s shot map from his Bundesliga seasons confirms just why he is so lethal – the Norwegian takes shots almost exclusively only in the penalty area, and from central areas. This could make him the perfect addition to a City squad.
City use the flanks quite a lot in their attacking play, and Haaland is the perfect penalty box operator to finish off all those crosses, cut-backs and passes into the area that their midfielders, forwards and even defenders generate.
One of the most important facets of his game is his movement. He is excellent at making blindside runs off the centre-back, making it extremely difficult to watch both him and the ball at the same time. He will often change direction quickly and looks to isolate a defender 1v1.
Haaland was also one of the fastest players in the Bundesliga last season, and will be a huge threat on the counter-attack, as he has shown numerous times already.
The Norwegian is usually attacking the last line of the opposition’s defense, and due to his exceptional decision-making and execution, he is often able to play the final pass for a teammate. It is why he also racked up 23 assists in 88 games for Dortmund.
While he is all about making runs, he is also very good at dropping off from the backline, either to play a wall pass and then run in behind, or to play a teammate in through on goal.
Again, it's easy to imagine these sort of situations with City’s attackers swarming around him.
Here are a couple of examples to show how dangerous he can be from such situations, back from when he was bursting into the limelight at Red Bull Salzburg.
His technical ability is also underrated – while Haaland may look big and ungainly, he is superb with the ball at his feet. He can create space for shots with perfect first touches, run with the ball at speed, and is also a decent dribbler.
And here are a few examples of the variety of finishes he is capable of. Note, how both Haaland and the goalkeeper are in very similar positions for all these chances, which shows how he is unpredictable and therefore near-impossible to stop.
Now for some of the potential issues. Haaland is not the most aggressive presser, as seen from his percentile numbers below, and this could be a problem for Guardiola. Secondly, he is only about average aerially, and has scored only around 10% of his career goals through headers.
While this should not be a huge issue since City do not pump high/long crosses towards their strikers, it is still a concern given, Haaland is supposed to add all that is missing to this City attack.
Encouragingly, he has visibly improved in the air in the last 18 months or so.
Other issues come in the form of his playstyle. Haaland prefers to get on the end of moves, while Pep wants his attackers to get involved. This graphic, taken from the Athletic, illustrates the difference quite starkly.
Pep craves control, while Haaland has (so far) thrived in chaos. A lot of his Bundesliga goals have come from running into wide-open space – however, that space may not exist in the Premier League, especially for City, who dominate possession.
City also attack quite slowly – their direct speed was just 1.09 m/sec last season, while Dortmund’s was 1.45 m/sec, as per Opta.
This is another reason why Haaland will need to improve his game on the ball, and learn to get more involved when City have possession.
He will also need to improve his defensive output by quite a margin – City had the 2nd highest high turnovers (378), the 4th highest for those that ended in a shot (52), and the joint 3rd most goals (6) from such situations last season.
Haaland’s arrival will also have a big impact on his new teammates, especially with the expected departures of Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling, and possibly even Bernardo Silva.
Now let's look at how his arrival can have an impact on players like KDB, Foden and many more👇
Kevin De Bruyne has spoken publicly about how he has more opportunities to score & fewer to create because City have been playing without a striker.
We can expect this to change, especially with KDB spamming crosses from the right half-space like he used to do a few seasons ago.
Foden will not need to play centrally much as he did last season & we could see him on the flanks again. He is likely to be a huge threat on transitions, alongside Haaland & should increase his goal involvements simply by moving towards goal rather than away from it as a false 9.
Grealish could have a real fight on his hands. With Haaland in the XI, he will be in competition with Foden most weeks to play off the left.
Of course, he is another whose style could benefit Haaland, and vice-versa – dribbling past players before firing a cross into the box.
Players like João Cancelo and Kyle Walker will also potentially benefit, again because they will have a constant penalty area presence to aim passes and crosses towards.
Overall, we feel that Erling Haaland is going to be successful in the Premier League.
However, as with any new City signing under Pep, it could take him a little time to adjust – but expect him to score boatloads of goals all the same.
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