#TimorLeste 🇹🇱 news: CNRT's Secretary General walked back the party's desire for a snap parliamentary election. Some quick analysis. (1/7) oekusipost.com/en/politics/14…
This is quite a walk back, as CNRT has long agitated for a snap election. But, it also reflects the realities of the electoral calendar - the next election, currently scheduled to take place by mid-2023, is fast approaching. (2/7)
Presumably, CNRT failed to entice KHUNTO to defect from the government. CNRT's decision also reflects Pres. Horta backing away from a snap election upon his election in April. (3/7)
Let's assume a snap election is truly off the table. Do CNRT and FRETILIN form pre-election coalitions to contest the 2023 election, ala the CNRT-led AMP in 2018, or do they contest it as individual parties? (4/7)
Seems more likely than not that both form coalitions due to the political environment & to avoid a 2017-style scenario, when FRETILIN unexpectedly bested CNRT by 1,135 votes and got the first crack at forming government. (5/7)
CNRT's backing off a snap election brings some stability to Timorese politics, but coalition jockeying will bring its own instability, both between & within parties. Remember, FRETILIN is grappling with considerable internal divides. (6/7)
An election featuring CNRT and FRETILIN-led coalitions would further polarize the country into two camps - west vs. east & Xanana vs. Alkatiri. In sum, buckle up for a wild ride. (7/7)
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