Thread by @MBielieskov

With invitation and by assistance of @UKRinOSCE today I have had a high honour and privilege to speak on behalf of Ukraine at #OSCE Annual Security Review Conference. These are major ideas voiced in prepared remarks.

European security architecture has been destroyed by all-out unprovoked/unjustified RU aggression against UA. Europe lost its status as one of most peaceful continents in world and now is arena of major interstate war of magnitude unseen since 1945.

Russian all-out war against Ukraine is not totally unexpected for those who for some time tracked Russian foreign policy trajectory - or better to say how Russia foreign policy progressively deteriorated into outright militarized revisionism.

Limited aggressions against its neighbors, disregard for arms control agreements/confidence building measures, rearmament/military demonstrations – there are the things that int comm has witnessed and with some exceptions turned a blind eye with negative consequences.

Now UA-RU all out war is in 5th month – though many people expected that Kyiv would fall in max 96 hours. UA pol nation using its own arsenal of heavy weaponry and West equipment like ATGMs/grenade launchers and MANPADs shattered RU original plan and made RU to limit its goals.

Russians were forced out of Northern Ukraine, Mykolayiv region and outskirts of Kharkiv. However difficult it was to endure first Russian blow Ukraine performed superbly well paving way from gloomy predictions to hope that justice would prevail.

But as war switched from suburbs of Kyiv to settlements and plains of Eastern Ukraine we should not fall into complacency. Otherwise weariness would replace alertness. And instead of unity of opinion we would see emerging cracks in countries’ perspectives to Ukraine-Russia war.

We should be especially cautious with regards to increasing calls for ceasefire or even peace here and now – at the price of Ukrainian territorial integrity. Though in itself peace is the ultimate goal of Ukraine present calls for peace are questionable at best.

Those calling for ceasefire when RU troops occupy 20% of UA/continues its creeping frontal advances in Donbas cannot explain what would prevent RU from breaching new agreements. Minsk 1/2 agreements should be a warning for those calling for ceasefire for the sake of ceasefire.

OSCE countries cannot indefinitely buy fake sense of normalcy at the expanse of Ukrainian territorial integrity/sovereignty and fundamental principles.

Peace-loving OSCE countries should not repeat its past mistakes being distracted and allowing Russia to consolidate gains before launching new round of dismemberment of Ukraine.

To bring really lasting peace Europe must return to basics – learning one more time importance of true balance of power which must underpin any diplomatic efforts.

This all out war was made possible because locally balance of power had been progressively favoring revisionist RU and all UA pleas to preemptively strengthen us were largely unheard. Hope this mistake would not be repeated again at this crucial moment of Ukraine-Russia war.

This war some time ago has turned into war of attrition at battlefield and war of exhaustion more broadly. And Ukraine can’t definitely endure this confrontation on its own – nobody could as it’s biggest regional war since 1945 with unprecedented consumption of material.

Military its largely artillery vs artillery contest with little of contact warfare where ATGMs might make a difference. UA needs more of long-range fires that would make it possible to interdict RU reinforcements/follow-on echelons before they might make any difference at front.

Ukraine also needs long-range fires to target Russian C2 nodes, logistics and conduct effective counter battery fight. And in this case no precision can substitute mass – quantity is quality of its own in case of artillery.

Only this way Ukraine can at least stabilize front-line fully with many lives saved. But to enhance Ukrainian negotiation position front-line stabilization is not enough – Ukraine needs to conduct at least one major counteroffensive.

Only counteroffensive can deal a decisive physical/psychological blow to already humiliated Russian army. Only through strengthening of Ukraine proper conditions can be created to implement OSCE core principles in practice.

More broadly Ukraine needs consistent financial and economic aid to endure. Hope nobody doubts ability of more than 50% of world GDP Western countries represent to confront meager Russian share of GDP which is progressively shrinking.

Bottom line is the following one – Russia must not be allowed to out-wait other peace-loving OSCE countries in this war. And that’s why this is not a time for hesitation – it’s time for those OSCE countries which cherish peace to redouble its efforts in support of Ukraine.

There should be no cracks for Russia to exploit. Only consistency and resolve translated in constant flow of heavy weaponry and financial assistance to Ukraine can bring this war to such a conclusion that would favor the cause of peace and security all over the world.

And special words of thanks and appreciation for @PLinOSCE for their bold and innovative chairmanship in @OSCE this year under conditions of RU all-out unjustified/unprovoked large-scale aggression against UA. @usosce @GER_OSCE @CanadaOSCE @UKOSCE