Those are very important graphs.
New immune-evasive variants are appearing faster and faster.
Each reinfection increases one's risk of #LongCOVID, and other severe outcomes (including harm to immune system and cognitive impairment)
The only way out is to #TargetTransmission
There is a way out of this crisis.
We can strongly reduce the spread (hence disabilities, deaths, absenteeism & disruptions) and even achieve a state of SARS2 elimination or near elimination in 🇨🇦
Please read this explanation of what @DGBassani ‘s 🧵from yesterday means. 🧵👇
And please share it/explain to all or any person in position of power you have an access to
We all can call/*email* politicians.
Federal, provincial, municipal, school boards, institutions, businesses
Call them. Send them emails. Demand meetings.
Show them data. Explain.
They are biological beings like everyone. And *Everyone* should be concerned.
Explain them what they can do to protect themselves and all of us.
Please please do it.
2/
Many of us are doing it since 2+ years. We are worn out.
Alone we couldn’t outcompete professional lobbyists wit PR machines, who push for not suppressing the disease. The narratives that enable spread intensified w/ the dawn of Omicron.
“It is my hope medical professionals will be more receptive to cutting-edge research, including when conducted by patients who have lived experience of a disease. Too many have suffered because of suboptimal work of some "experts". This is one reason why we have this pandemic” 1/
For journalists: please distinguish the difference between: 1) Science, and 2) Private *beliefs* of credentialed experts, which may not be grounded in evidence
1) and 2) have different weights and should never be presented as equal “perspectives”
2/
Please don’t promote 2) as it may lead to misinformation. General public may think that 2)=1). It doesn’t.
Don’t equate private beliefs with facts.
E.g. “I think Long-COVID is mostly psychosomatic” is a private belief.
Ask for references.
If the expert can’t provide them…
3/
💫long-term (till 2026!) modelling of COVID-19 hospitalizations
✅w/o regular boosters hosp.'ll be much higher than in 21'
✅Even w/ boosting 2x/year, hosp.'ll be almost as high as in 21' & we'll have 2🌊🌊/year
✅Adding PH protections to vaxx needed to 📉hospitalizations
BA.2 grows exponentially in Alberta.
If we care about lives, health and livelihoods we need to have at least some public health anti-Covid protections (e.g. N95 mask mandates, air purifiers, TTI)
Context: Omicron BA.1 🌊killed 745 Albertans in just 3 months.
1/
There was an unanswered Q: how many deaths decision makers will accept in "new normal"?
BA.1 killed in just 3 months >700 ppl in AB.
And it seems to be perceived as "OK". Nobody apologized for letting it happen.
That means that in "endemic" "new normal" "living with Covid...
2/
..That means that in "endemic" "new normal" "living-with-Covid-like-with-other-respiratory-viruses & accepting-some-deaths" 700+ deaths in 3 months is an acceptable number going forward.
Or, for🇨🇦: 7,000+ deaths in 3 months
Reference: Flu killed 224 ppl in🇨🇦in 2018-19 season 3/
Omicron grows as steep as predicted.
And even earlier than in the model from Dec15
Please avoid large gatherings and all unnecessary contacts.
Pls wear N95/99
Pls get the vaccine/3rd shot
Pls don't do anything risky, as there may be no available ambulances.
1/
The virus is in the exhaled air and it can stay there even if infectious person left the room.
Don't inhale other people's exhalations: 1) avoid being around ppl from outside your household 2) make sure that rooms are ventilated and air is filtered 3) wear N95/99 respirator
2/
Please get vaccinated/get the 3rd shot.
Tell the government and public health that you don't want to 'live with the virus'.
Demand that they #EndThePamdemic in 2022, so that the next Xmas can be normal.
(WHO said that the world has all the tools to end the pandemic in 2022)
3/
Possible scenarios for Omicron in AB if nothing is done.
We are at the nascent phase of new VOC spread (only 23 reported cases), when *a lot* can be done to effectively halt it or at least significantly slow it down.
Prevent more sparks from coming. Make the tinder less dry. 1/
Let's not do with Omicron what we did with Alpha and Delta. We don't need more deaths and suffering.
At this stage *preventing more importations* is essential.
Less fire starters --> smaller chance of a big fire
Travel Quarantine. Test. Vaccinate. 2/
Make the tinder less dry:
3rd doses, vaccinate kids, #FreeTheRATs, deploy airborne precautions (N95 for all, ventilation, CO2 monitors, HEPA air purifiers, education about airborne transmission)
Prevent super-spreading:
Caps on public & business gathering's sizes
3/