Thread by @McFaul

#BritneyGriner, #PaulWhelan & Marc Fogel are wrongfully detained & in the case of last 2, wrongfully convicted in Russia. Putin will only release them in some sort of swap. We swapped spies in 2010. We swapped Reed for Yaroshenko this year. We should do another swap now. THREAD.1

Viktor Bout is a horrible criminal. #BritneyGriner, #PaulWhelan & Fogel are not. But US diplomats need to weigh realistically costs & benefits here -- abstract principles versus the concrete interests of real Americans. 2/

Bout has been in captivity since 2008. He has a decade or so to go on his sentence. What is the marginal benefit of holding him until the end versus the benefit of freeing these 3 Americans? That's the question. 3/

Some argue that, in principle, you cant real trade criminals for innocent people. I agree with that sentiment. I also know that, in diplomacy, values and interests clash all the time. All the time. 4/

But we can swap these people without making statements about their guilt or innocence. (Russia needs this face-saving step too). Both sides simply agree to have these "prisoners" held in captivity in their home countries. 5/

Others argue that trading "hostages" will encourage more hostage-taking in the future. That's a hypothesis not supported by strong data. 6/

And this research about "hostage swaps" is mostly about terrorist organizations. Putin conducts acts of terrorism, but he does not behave or have the interests of classic non-state terrorist organizations. 7/

And let me pause to say I am NOT an expert on terrorism! Real experts should correct me if I'm mischaracterizing this literature. (cc: @BrianMJenkins ) But I am a bit of an expert on Putin. He behaves differently. 8/

I do not believe that a swap for Griner/Whelen/Fogel for Bout would lead to more Americans being arrested in Russia. I also hope Americans will stop going to Russia while Putin is in power! 9/

I also know how incredibly difficult it is to negotiate these deals. But we have done so before with Russia & other countries. In these particular cases, the benefits of getting Griner/Whelan/Fogel out are worth the costs of doing this swap. 10/

And as we rightly focus on Americans held wrongly in Russia, lest not forget Americans held wrongly elsewhere, including Siamak Namazi in Iran. 11/ END THREAD

"I’m an American, Why Have I Been Left to Rot as a Hostage of Iran?" nytimes.com/2022/06/29/opi…