Thread by @MLiebreich

How messed up is this? "Thousands of studies use RCP8.5 as business as usual, and the scenario that is used as policy success is RCP4.5. But today much of the literature considers RCP4.5 as an *upper bound* based on current policies." #RCP85isBollox
youtube.com/clip/Ugkx78bVv…

Here I give a concrete example of RCP8.5 being used as BAU, and RCP4.5 as what success looks like - even though we are now on RCP4.5 or better. From the US National Climate Assessment 2018, which spawned climate porn headlines in NYT and CNN and others.
youtube.com/clip/UgkxAswnF…

Don't believe the US National Climate Assessment 2018 used RCP8.5 as BAU and RCP4.5 as policy success? There it is, plain as day on page 1358: "Annual damages under RCP8.5" and "Damages avoided under RCP4.5". This is #RCP85isBollox and drives bad policy. nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/NCA4…

The improper use of scenarios (#RCP85isBollox) in the 2018 National Climate Assessment resulted in a storm of climate porn stories in the US press. For instance this famous one in the NYT... nytimes.com/2018/11/23/cli…

...and this one in CNN. Next time you hear someone talking about the #ClimateAnxiety epidemic, you might want to ask what role they think #RCP85isBollox and the resulting very scary press coverage might be playing. edition.cnn.com/2018/11/23/hea…

And this is why, if anyone tells you not to listen to the @MLCleaningUp episode with @RogerPielkeJr, please listen anyway and form your own opinion. There's good climate science out there, and the IPCC does a decent job, but there is also #RCP85isBollox.
cleaningup.live/ep93-prof-roge…

BTW, if you think believing we are already on track for RCP4.5 is a fringe view, nope: the @UNFCCC thinks so too. This is from their "Update to the NDC Synthesis Report" written in preparation for COP26. No sign of RCP8.5, it has been quietly lost.
unfccc.int/news/cop26-upd…

And the latest figures from the Global Carbon Budget confirm that we are at or around peak emissions, and RCP8.5 is simply not happening. Yes, there's a post-Covid/Ukraine bounce-back in coal use, but that's clearly temporary. #RCP85isBollox
carbonbrief.org/global-co2-emi…