Thread by @WarintheFuture

Russian forces have apparently now completed their conquest of the Luhansk region. They have however only partially succeed in achieving their operational objective of capturing the Donbas. They have not destroyed the Ukrainian army in field, nor their steel will. 1/12 🧵

2/ The Ukrainians, having persevered in the face of Russian artillery & air power, conducted a disciplined retrograde operation to preserve their army. They have ensured the Russian forces have bled for every metre of territory gained in Luhansk. smh.com.au/world/europe/a…

3/ Russia will leverage this ‘victory’ for its strategic influence campaign. Putin, having already apparently declared victory in the past 24 hours, will want to communicate this as a success to his domestic audience.

4/ Russia will use a ‘victory in Luhansk’ message to portray that the tide of the war has turned (it hasn’t). Russian messaging will seek to convey to wavering nations & politicians in the west (there are still a few) that supporting Ukraine is only delaying the inevitable.

5/ The Russians, always ruthless in their battlefield calculations, are likely to have made the assessment that no matter how exhausted Russian troops and logistic systems are, the Ukrainians are probably more exhausted. War is about relative advantages, and exploiting them.

6/ The Russian Army will therefore seek to continue advancing to secure the Donetsk region. To do so, they will maintain the approach taken in the eastern campaign; advance behind extensive artillery and rocket fires, seek the envelopment and destruction of Ukrainian forces.

7/ But Russia is also under pressure in the south. Ukraine is continuing to seize territory through a series of rolling counter attacks. This war in the south is the more decisive front. Possession of Ukraine’s south permits Russia to economically strangle Ukraine.

8/ Russia’s challenge in the south is magnified for the Russians by the Ukrainian resistance activities. Over the weekend, another Russian train was derailed in the south, and there has been a campaign targeting Russian soldiers and collaborators. reuters.com/world/europe/u…

9/ So, in the wake of any Luhansk success, Russia may have no choice but to rebalance its forces between the east and the south. This - and stout Ukrainian defences in the east - will impact on their ability to seize the entire Donbas.

10/ So, while tactical momentum in the east of Ukraine may be with the Russians, this momentum has been enormously expensive in lives and ammunition, has destroyed whole cities and has resulted in relatively small amounts of seized territory.

11/ In the short term though, the Ukrainians in the east face a renewed Russian onslaught. It is likely to be every bit as brutal as that we have seen in the past two months.

12/ But the Ukrainians have shown how effective a defensive strategy can be if it integrates modern sensors, precision munitions, reinforcements, flexibility and good #leadership. They will need a full measure of all these in the weeks ahead. End. (Images: @IAPonomarenko)