BBN Profile picture
Jul 5 7 tweets 2 min read
1/7
Based on what I have just talked about if #HMI had received all the monies from its sales in 2021 then this would have amounted to $4.52m and the business would have been profitable at the operating level in 2021.
2/
What's more, the $4.454m paid out in 2021 reflects more accurately the true costs to run the business over the course of one year.

One cannot conclude exactly how much HMI produced in 2021 because the cash receipts reflect payment dates and not when the goods were received.
3/
Inventory was fairly minimal which reflects an operation that leans towards producing to order.

However, the costs associated with administration clearly eat up the vast majority of this with the consolidated statement accounting for c. $3.85m in the period.
4/
Although wages and salaries are included under this segment and were $490,052 in 2021 and are recorded separately from directors' fees.

I take these to be mine-related and so Brazil denominated. That would place the actual mine cost for 2021 at around $1.094m.
5/
The lack of any sizeable current (next 12 months) trade payables supports the argument that these costs aren't being kicked down to the road.

So assuming admin costs remain fairly stable ( and they aren't up by much compared to 2019 thanks to consultant fees dropping)...
6/
then the uplift in production running costs should come through in that $1.094m figure.

Even if it were to double (which can't happen because economies of scale will prevent that + the BRL/AUD is 10% weaker YTD) then cash outflows would still 'only' be around $5.55m in 2022.
7/
If the 15% price rise rings true then at YTD cash receipts of $9.75m HMI should already be positive to the tune of AUD $4.2m with H2 still to come.

Based on the H1 2022 AUD/GBP exchange rate that would be c. £2.32m.

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More from @BigBiteNow

Jul 5
1/24
Lots of continuing confusion it seems around the #HMI accounts and the company's core profitability.

For me, this is in part driven by a desire to focus on the revenues when the focus should be on the cash flows

Here's my long thread opinion.
$ = AUD only.
2/
Firstly, it is important to appreciate that HMI wrote down AUD $600,000 in trade debtors on 31/12/21.

Also, "Some debtors are given industry standard longer payment terms which may cross over more than one accounting period," which helps create a difference between...
3/
sales and cash receipts in any given accounting period.

Note also that all trade debtors still fall within the current (within 12 months) trade and other receivables. The only non-current (more than 12 months) relates to recoverable taxes. So not direct sales related.
Read 26 tweets
Jul 5
1/4
Yes, a very good start with the key message that,

"Significantly, the three holes completed to date targeted the geochemical high, but the core of the magnetic high has yet to be tested."

The direction of the #SRB drill holes clearly demonstrates this.
2/
“This is a very promising time for Serabi and between this discovery, the excellent progress with the development of Coringa, improved production from the Palito Complex, and advancing all our high priority regional targets, we look forward to updating all our stakeholders.”
3/
I agree and such words about Palito help support the belief that June was another strong month. Meaning Q2 should have delivered levels of gold production that are in line with the guidance set at the start of the year.
Read 4 tweets
May 21, 2021
1/5
In this enclosed blog I attempted to demonstrate the significance of the V205 $8 per lb point.

Given what has just been reported in China, I believe we will shortly see $9 pr lb V205.

#BMN

2/
Here now is the same historical V205 price chart marked up at $9 per lb.

Upon hitting $9 per lb the only time since 1980 that the V205 price has not gone on to spike to at least $11.50 per lb was in 2006/07 but it was coming off a downtrend. Image
3/
on all other occasions, the price continued higher because such pricing demonstrates a tight market is in play.

On a simple comparison to FeV that equates to a $50 per kg market.

Yes, we need more information on Europe/US prices.

thebushveldperspective.com/vanadium-prices
Read 5 tweets
May 21, 2021
1/7
The latest vanadium price report is now available.

V205 120,500 CNY/t now the norm. See my previous explanations for what this likely means for the price in dollars.

I make China V205 running at $8.70 per lb.

#BMN #vanadium

Image
2/
That's now well above my $8 per lb rising trend break out point.

More importantly,

"People in the market has high enthusiasm for inquiries, and big factory is expected to adjust June V2O5 flake next week, and their wait-and-see sentiment increases."
3/
As I have said previously the big factories in China are key here as they produce the vast majority of Chinese V205.

Here's a second report from today. Image
Read 7 tweets
May 21, 2021
1/5
Bushveld Energy 2021 position if listed separately,

A. $8m profit on #IES investment.

B. 25.25% ownership in Enerox who's 2020 contract wins were c. 65% of what IES achieved and will hold $30m for expansion to production twice the size of IES.

#BMN

2/
C. 55% ownership of a 200MWh electrolyte plant under construction with the IDC of S.A.

D. Mini-grid project under construction at Vametco in partnership with the IDC with potential to open up localised VRFB production and industrial opportunity.
3/
E. Actively tendering for Eskom BESS projects totalling c. 1,440MWh with the battery tender element valued by the World Bank at $468m.

F. First active vanadium rental product in play with a UK client.
Read 5 tweets
May 21, 2021
1/4
As stated the other day #SRB hit AISC $1,080 at c. 40k oz production in 2019.

This year looking like min. 36,000 oz is on which will raise that AISC slightly.

However, we must not forget the exchange rate.

2/
In 2019 the Brazil Real averaged R3.95 to a dollar.

YTD in 2021 it is running at R5.47 a dollar.

That's a 38% difference to 2019. The vast majority of SRB costs are in Brazil Real with revenues in dollars.
3/
So it's going to have an effect and certainly gives me great confidence that my $1,200 AISC estimate is top end.

Gold price YTD is averaging $1,790 per oz.
Read 4 tweets

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