In the past few weeks we've seen several trains in Russia with military vehicles, presumably taken out of storage.
Per the Russian Railways database, they were all heading to Mulino.
Later, a Russian military source confirmed to us that a "3rd Army Corps" was indeed being formed in Mulino, that hosts a known military base
We don't know whether 1st or 2nd Army Corps are being formed: they might be those in Donetsk and Luhansk "people's militias" respectively
The Ukrainian intelligence assesses the future strength of the corps as 15.5 thousand. It will presumably be staffed largely with "volunteers" brought in by lucrative contracts offered by the Russian military.
We assess that the corps could join the war in Ukraine within the next few months.
It remains to be seen if it will be fully staffed or if the training and equipment will be of sufficient quality.
/🧵
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Brief Overview of Frontline Changes Over the Past Month 🧵
In the Sumy direction, the frontline did not change significantly in October. Russian forces made minor gains near Volodymyrivka and Varachyne, while intense fighting continues near Yunakivka 1/12
In the Kharkiv region, activity has increased near Vovchansk. The RuAF have secured the territory of the oil extraction plant, crossed the Vovcha River and are trying to advance further south along the railway. To the southwest, assault groups have reached the outskirts of Synelnykove 2/12
In the border area of the Kharkiv region, the RuAF are advancing near Odradne and Bolohivka, which, as we assess, aims to establish a "buffer zone" uniting the territories near Milove and the areas near Stroivka and Topoli, along the Oskil River 3/12
In the Dobropillia direction, Ukrainian forces have continued mopping-up the northern part of the salient over the past few days. They have fully liberated the villages of Kucheriv Yar, Sukhetske and Zatyshok and have advanced near Nove Shakhove 1/4
Ukraine’s General Staff acknowledges the extent of Russian infiltration into Pokrovsk, saying at least 200 RuAF soldiers are now inside the town 2/4
Russian forces strike a passenger bus in the Sumy region and residential buildings in Kyiv, killing at least 6 people and injuring a total of 59. Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, hit a dam in Russia’s Belgorod region 3/4
🧵1/ In the Pokrovsk direction, the AFU have recently begun actively counterattacking in the Dobropillia breakthrough, advancing near the villages of Razine and Novotoretske. It appears that Ukrainian forces intend to cut off the main part of the Dobropillia salient along the Kazenyi Torets River by advancing from the north and south. The AFU also likely cleared another section of the salient west of Kucheriv Yar and south of Zolotyi Kolodiaz
2/ Near Boikivka, a Ukrainian soldier used a ruse to eliminate two Russian servicemen. Knowing Russians moved in small, disconnected groups, he pretended to be one of them. Gaining their trust, he followed them off open ground, then shot both. His actions aren't considered a war crime, as he wore no enemy uniform or insignia
3/ Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov reported on the mass production of radio detectors for Supercam drones which detect the approach of interceptor drones and automatically issue an evasion command
🧵1/ CIT records the highest number of civilians casualties since january 2024 for two months in a Row. Attacks and shelling on both sides of the frontline in June 2025 killed at least 282 civilians and wounded a minimum of 1,972
2/ The situation worsened in July, when 335 people lost their lives, almost 19% more than in June. 2,228 civilians were injured, marking a 13% increase
3/ While an increase in civilian casualties was also observed during last year's summer, the escalation in 2025 is much more severe. The number of fatalities over the two summer months increased by 25% and injuries rose by nearly 30% compared to the same period last year
For those who somehow missed our piece on T-90M MBTs or don't have time for longreads, here are key takeaways from the research👇
🧵1/12
2/ Before T-90M serial production began in 2020, Uralvagonzavod had produced between 120 and 150 original T-90 tanks, along with roughly 280 T-90A models
3/ UVZ managed to preserve its production capacities. At the peak in the 2010s, the plant could produce up to 140 tanks annually, while also manufacturing tank assembly kits
The partial lift of the ban on the use of Western weapons on Russian territory has proven life-saving for Kharkiv. Lifting remaining restrictions would provide even greater protection 1/17
🧵👇 notes.citeam.org/lift-the-ban-g…
One month after the start of the Russian offensive on the Kharkiv axis, the US has relaxed restrictions on the use of precision weapons against targets on Russian territory, allowing the use of HIMARS MLRS rockets in Russian regions bordering Ukraine 2/17 politico.com/news/2024/05/3…
The debate over the interpretation of the restrictions continues to this day. However, the ban on using ATACMS with a range of 290 km [180 mi] remains in place. The US also specifically prohibited targeting Russian aircraft located on nearby airbases 3/17 washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/…