By the end of June 2018, @FlaDems#flgov candidates had spent $13,829,726 on TV, or $3.5 million more than Nikki and Charlie have on hand now — combined.
This primary is super underfunded.
All social/earned/word of mouth.
Crist only has ~$2.7 million more than Nikki, or less than Chris King had spent on TV by early/mid July.
It's actually shocking it's that close. Charlie is the greatest fundraiser I've ever been around. Our (Nikki) original primary prediction had him +$10-13 million advantage.
The difference in cash is negligible — almost nothing in a statewide. Really not ideal for either candidate leading into a general. However, Nikki will benefit from the "comeback" narrative because media/establishment will be surprised. That will help her intro to general.
I realize this is TMI, but that's why you follow me, I guess. Also, for fun, two candidates, Greene and Levine ended up spending a combined $53 million on TV. $71.7 million was spent by all. Just on Democratic side.
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A little perspective on the Florida Democratic primary for Governor and the general election environment.
Yes, a thread.
I cannot stress enough how tough of an environment the general will be. I've worked pretty hard on two pretty high-profile generals here (Gillum '18/Crist '14).
Biden is -11 in Florida.
(Morning Consult)
This time in:
2014: Obama was +/-0
2018: Trump was -11
(Gallup)
Obviously my friend (and longtime client) Charlie Crist is running for governor again. So in 2014, he started + double digits against Rick Scott. That's crazy high for Florida.
At this point in 2014, Crist was +6 RCP average. And Rick Scott had spent $6.5 million on TV.
Been waiting more than three years for this to drop. Looks like we may finally find out where Ron DeSantis got the foreign money he used against @AndrewGillum in 2018.
Russian oligarch Andrey Muraviev.
The day after the election, the Russian Oligarch, allegedly, was most thrilled about the "victory in Florida." And was ready for his kickback.
Here is the donation still listed on DeSantis' political committee page. DeSantis was apparently an early and easy target, as this indictment says the foreign national donor scheme started "in or about June 2018."
The “white discomfort ❄️” bill passed another Florida GOP controlled committee yesterday, but not without this powerful testimony from Rep. @RamonAlexander.
Putting the full thing here so future generations, if allowed, can see who fought against whitewashing history.
Thank you to everyone sharing this and following @RamonAlexander. Because Republicans control the entire legislative process in Florida, all we have are our voices.
Time for a little breakdown on Florida mail and early voting numbers, if you're into that.
First, here is a .gif of the first 4,771,956 votes cast here including when and where voters have been voting.
Breaks down like this:
DEM: 2,110,366
GOP: 1,682,849
N/3/I: 978,741
Now the obvious.
@FlaDems's being up by 427,517 votes right now is still so shocking and unprecedented. It's just never worked like this here. In 2016, this far from Election Day, Republicans were up by 15,280 after 2,870,211 votes.