What does this mean? It means DeFi 3.0 protocols like @GMX_IO, that are low or non-inflationary, pay protocol revenue to stakers in non-native tokens like $ETH.
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Derivative exchanges like @GMX_IO & $GNS benefit token holders because trading profit thrives in volatility.
The House 🃏generally wins.
Consider the $GMX net P&L below. This results in a 70% revenue distribution to $GMX's collateral vault, $GLP, & 30% 💰 to $GMX stakers.
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During a 🦀, @GMX_IO loses value bc traders are unlikely to open new positions due to lack of volatility. This can lead to ⬇️ token price short term.
However, as volatility goes up, for example, around release of the US FOMC minutes 7/6/22, trading volume + OI ⬆️=💰
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Revenue over the last 3 months has been in a down trend for $GMX stakers compared to a bull market. However, periods of high volatility have resulted in high fees to stakers with APR ranging consistently between 20-40% in $ETH & $esGMX.
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Although OI is $GMX's primary source of revenue, growing secondary revenue sources include: 1) #Arbitrum swaps via DEX aggregator integration 2) MEV shared with @Keeper_DAO
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Future revenue sources for $GMX include synthetic derivatives & the launch of X4 for greater capital efficiency. Work on synths has already begun by the dev team w/X4 currently pending development after synths. medium.com/@gmx.io/x4-pro…
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It is worth noting that the $GMX circulating supply is around 7.7m & max supply is 13.25m. There are approx 2.2m escrowed $GMX tokens.
Supply on exchanges is diminishing w/only 400k $GMX on @Uniswap & net outflows increasing daily per @nansen_ai.
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As $esGMX tapers thru the remainder of 2022, expect a supply crunch to continue to develop as long term stakers are incentivize to hodl thru the 🐻 market to earn lucrative multiplier points to ⬆️ their $ETH revenue share.
Notably, price & volume are seeing a recent uptrend.
I expect the rise of hedging strats + ⬆️ awareness of hedging for the @GMX_IO collateral vault, $GLP, is likely to result in ⬆️ OI as the platform grows. Strats include:
1⃣ Stop Loss/Limit orders
2⃣ @dopex_io Atlantic Options
3⃣ @TracerDAO Power Perpetuals - nonliquidatable
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TLDR pt1: I believe @GMX_IO is a base layer DeFi dApp on #Arbitrum that is likely to see ⬆️ revenue & trading activity as the year progresses.
👉Tapering emissions by Dec is likely to result in a supply crunch w/price appreciation.
👉Tokenomics encourage long term accumulation
TLDR pt2:
👉Launch of synths & X4 + growing secondary sources of revenue via swaps/MEV is bullish for long term protocol sustainability.
👉The L2 narrative is likely to benefit $GMX on #Arbitrum greatly after the launch of Nitro this summer. $AVAX $GLP growth is also at an ATH.
🎗️Disclosure: As always, DYOR & NFA.
I am biased bc I am long $GMX. I started DCA'ing at $28 & bought the bottom at $12. I continue to buy bc I believe $GMX will outperform even in the 🐻.
I also hodl $UMAMI which is a delta minimized yield aggregator built ontop of $GLP. 🍌
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Someone asked me today what I look for in a 🌱seed project & how much is too little/too much to invest...it made me realize there just isnt enough info out there for the avg degen to consider if you want to angel/seed invest.
My take might not be popular: but its honest 🤷♀️
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Rule #1: Try NOT do seeds/angel investments.
Why? Well, the honest trust is that $ETH will likely 3-5x ROI in the next 2yr by simply hodling
OR, u can give 💰 to a start-up that wont show ROI for >2 years + risks exploits, irrelevance, forking/copy-cats & lack of a value moat.
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@tbr90 touched on this back in Jan when he noted it is often better to be the 2nd 🐭.
I have used the metaphor of the 2nd mouse in relation to seed investments several times since. The ref relates to a clip in Catch me if You Can w/Christopher Walken:
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On request from @ani578 & @VirtualCD_CTEn,
here are some indicators I've documented w/@irncrypt to monitor for oversold vs overbought conditions.
As always, this is NFA, all indicators should be considered in context of broader macro/market conditions.
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1) @GCRClassic was the first big CT account to note : Volume traded > market cap is suggestive of a potential top as this is often indicative of high turn over in the circulating supply. @Asymmetry_Fi also had a good commentary on this recently as well and is worth a follow.
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2) Clean wallet funding is bullish for whatever token they're buying in context of fund accumulation vs P&D buying. I monitor for clean wallet accumulation from @ElBarto_Crypto amazing free dash, Block 119, block119.io/dashboard
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Is @Ninjascalp's Binance Cartel real?
TLDR: YES
Let's take a look.
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I used @DeBankDeFi Time Machine to look at the @binance hot wallet, 0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60 on 3/12/23...the day before @cz_binance announced his $1b liquidity purchase.
On this day, the hot wallet held $157m $BUSD.
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On 3/13/23, @cz_binance announced a plan to swap the Binance Recovery Foundation wallet funds into crypto.
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Everyone is talking about Mt Gox & Shanghai...but no one is talking about one of the OTHER biggest stories of April 2023: @amazon's NFT marketplace GALLERY
Let's dive in bc it's something worth watching 👀
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Reported 1st by @michael_bodley, @amazon will be launching a NFT marketplace on/around April 24th.
The (nft) GALLERY reportedly will:
✅Feature famous web3 nfts
✅Permit sale/resale of NFT gift cards + subscriptions
✅Host minted content tied to real world tokenized assets
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Wen researching tokens & fee revenue, you REALLY need to pay attention to sources.
Just bc someone claims to have data supporting their conclusions...trust but verify.
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The most easily accessible source of fee revenue is @tokenterminal. This is unfortunate because they tend to have institutional subscriptions & funds+researchers who ACTUALLY believe their data wo questioning it. 🎗️Remember: easy != accurate
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Case in point: there has recently been a CT discussion regarding @QuickswapDEX vs @traderjoe_xyz revenues.
Both are gud projects from @0xPolygon & @avalancheavax respectively. However, TT does NOT represent a comparison of their fee revenue accurately.
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