RIP Other-Guys DN Vaults 2022-2023
Delta neutral is HARD. I mean fucking HARD.

Frens, Enemies & Onlookers:
Let us take a walk down memory lane & visit why @umamidao is still alive & kicking
🧵👇 1. @rage_trade Made the decision to shut down their under-performing GLP vaults to "focus" on their perps product.

Someone asked me today what I look for in a 🌱seed project & how much is too little/too much to invest...it made me realize there just isnt enough info out there for the avg degen to consider if you want to angel/seed invest.
My take might not be popular: but its honest 🤷‍♀️
🧵👇 Rule #1: Try NOT do seeds/angel investments.
Why? Well, the honest trust is that $ETH will likely 3-5x ROI in the next 2yr by simply hodling
OR, u can give 💰 to a start-up that wont show ROI for >2 years + risks exploits, irrelevance, forking/copy-cats & lack of a value moat.
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On request from @ani578 & @VirtualCD_CTEn,
here are some indicators I've documented w/@irncrypt to monitor for oversold vs overbought conditions.
As always, this is NFA, all indicators should be considered in context of broader macro/market conditions.
🧵👇 1) @GCRClassic was the first big CT account to note : Volume traded > market cap is suggestive of a potential top as this is often indicative of high turn over in the circulating supply.
@Asymmetry_Fi also had a good commentary on this recently as well and is worth a follow.
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Is @Ninjascalp's Binance Cartel real?
TLDR: YES
Let's take a look.
🧵👇 I used @DeBankDeFi Time Machine to look at the @binance hot wallet, 0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60 on 3/12/23...the day before @cz_binance announced his $1b liquidity purchase.
On this day, the hot wallet held $157m $BUSD.
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Everyone is talking about Mt Gox & Shanghai...but no one is talking about one of the OTHER biggest stories of April 2023: @amazon's NFT marketplace GALLERY
Let's dive in bc it's something worth watching 👀
🧵👇 Reported 1st by @michael_bodley, @amazon will be launching a NFT marketplace on/around April 24th.
The (nft) GALLERY reportedly will:
✅Feature famous web3 nfts
✅Permit sale/resale of NFT gift cards + subscriptions
✅Host minted content tied to real world tokenized assets
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Wen researching tokens & fee revenue, you REALLY need to pay attention to sources.
Just bc someone claims to have data supporting their conclusions...trust but verify.
🧵👇 The most easily accessible source of fee revenue is @tokenterminal. This is unfortunate because they tend to have institutional subscriptions & funds+researchers who ACTUALLY believe their data wo questioning it. 🎗️Remember: easy != accurate
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A flightless bird reminded me that @SynapseProtocol has some near term FA catalysts that are worth getting bullish over despite the macro. I bought a bag. If it goes down, will DCA more.
🧵👇 Synapse is about to launch SynChain. Recent price action and "soon" comments in the $SYN discord lead me to believe it will likely be announced in or around Eth Denver this Feb.
Synchain will be the cheapest L2 by FDV. The L2 scaling narrative has not even begun to take off.
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There is circumstantial evidence that $5B AUM @ambergroup_io is insolvent, in distress, or rugging.
Unconfirmed 🇨🇳Chinese social media reports from @TechFlowPost support the on chain evidence of them dumping assets due to distress:

https://twitter.com/TechFlowPost/status/1600035573804040194?s=20&t=nl-MSSXIKsAy-Z3GonNCvA

🧵👇 Previously I had noted that Amber Group was suspiciously TWAPing large amounts of $stETH from @CurveFinance's LP.

https://twitter.com/crypto_condom/status/1593236120120479746?s=20&t=JYPKZdmLjSicrgR2n7ivoQ

Amber Group Wallet 0x54dda22ae140edb605c73073eabb6f4aea2fc237 shows that they owe $51m in debt to @AaveAave with a health score of 1.34.

📢CALLING ALL $SUSHI Holders!
An important governance proposal has gone live from @MIM_Spell on the @SushiSwap forum here: forum.sushi.com/t/emergency-pr…
I STRONGLY urge you to 🗳️ YES to this proposal to help ensure user safety.
🧵👇 There are 2⃣ collateral positions that reside on Sushi’s Bentobox infrastructure which place user funds at risk.
The $SUSHI Bentobox infrastructure is controlled by @SushiSwap so Abracadabra must ask for $SUSHI's help to retire the vaults.
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I like FREE $ETH and I have no qualms about @brian_armstrong or @coinbase solvency.
For this reason, I'm arbing the 5.2% discount on $cbETH vs $ETH right now. Prior to FTX implosion, arb was around 2%. It is now high enough for me to take advantage of this arb. Here's how:
🧵👇 Find a SAFE lending protocol which uses the @chainlink price feed for $cbETH & has CHEAP $ETH lending.
(I use @DefiLlama's lending optimizer to find this.)
1⃣Deposit your cbETH
2⃣Borrow ETH
3⃣Swap the ETH for cbETH
4⃣Repeat up to whatever ratio your risk tolerance allows
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📢 FTX Contagion List:
Contagion from @FTX_Official is spreading like a cancer across the crypto space. Like cancer, the hardest part is the not knowing, the waiting, the fear of what you might find out. After we lay all the facts bare, we can capitulate, crab & move on.
🧵👇 1. Celebrities including:
@giseleofficial & @TomBrady
Stephen Curry
Shaq
Kevin O'Leary
David Ortiz
Naomi Osaka

I bought a decent sized bag of $MATIC yesterday.
Why? @0xPolygon is just a 💩 side chain, right?
Well, yeah, it is.
However, that is about to change s👀n-ish.
Thread made especially for @daman_n_diu 🤝
🧵👇 Recently, the @TheTieIO did a really phenomenal overview of @0xPolygon ecosystem growth in their latest State of Crypto update here:

https://twitter.com/thetieio/status/1573037182733926402?s=46&t=9-L49WKQdkYE9_Zc08NmlQ

The article got me looking at other metrics myself.
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Have you every tried to yield 🚜🧑‍🌾 farm but then found out that high APR was too good to last?
🦙@DefiLlama's Yield Page has a little known ability to predict & rank protocols by yield sustainability. Let's walk through how to use it.
🧵👇 First, go to defillama.com/yields
Click on "Filter by chain" & "Filter by Attribute"
In this case, I want yield on #Arbitrum that is stable/Up & has a high confidence for sustainability. I also want yield from an LP that is $1m or more in TVL.

📢CT would have you believe that the 🫐@GMX_IO protocol is living under a web3 constructed sword of Damocles....so lets talk about it.
Today, @apywizard did a nice but not well thought out thread on 2 ways $GMX can fail. Let's review:
🧵👇

https://twitter.com/apywizard/status/1565777258756935686

Rumor 1: $GMX can fail bc of a competitor attack
This is simply not possible. $GLP has strict caps on position size to mitigate this possibility. In fact, caps are the most strict on shorts compared to longs.
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Well? Are we going to talk about this 👀
The @synthetix_io Spartan Counsel are debating that currently "ALL" atomics via @kwenta are toxic to the debt pool with a SIP proposed to limit atomic volume for now until more fixes can be attempted.
sips.synthetix.io/sccp/sccp-224/
🧵👇 Currently, @kwenta_io volume to date is $1.9B. If all volume has been toxic, it has been consistently rekting stakers in the debt pool.
If atomics are turned off, fee volume will likely go back to being 20-30k like in early august before they were turned off the first time.
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Im going to say something that is unpopular: Right now, $GMX is overvalued for the revenue it is generating. I took 20% profit this week.

However, I think $GMX will continue to appreciate. Here's why I'm NOT selling my remaining 80%:
🧵👇 Assets under management (AUM) are at an ATH.
AUM is $543m w/ $243m in GLP, the @GMX_IO collateral vault.
AUM 🆙 = OI 🆙 = 💰
Growth in AUM & collateral directly correlates w/growth in OI 2ndary to the ability to do more trades with & without greater leverage (up to 30x).
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Lets L👀K at the tokenomics & catalysts of @GMX_IO.
$GMX is low float & generates #RealYield w/fees paid to stakers in $ETH.

Max supply is 13.25M $GMX
Current inflation occurs mostly from:
🫐250k $GMX distributed linearly to team over 2yrs
🫐750k $esGMX left in 2022
👇🧵 Its important to recognize the supply of $GMX is very low. There is a total circulation of:
7,750,104 $GMX & 2,187,232 $esGMX = 9,937,336

This means, only 3.3M $GMX are left to POTENTIALLY enter circulation (24.9%). I say potentially bc most (only 37k) $esGMX is not vested.
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A #RealYield trend on #CT was started this week by DeFi natives @IntrinsicDeFi & @MrGrumpyNFT.

What does this mean? It means DeFi 3.0 protocols like @GMX_IO, that are low or non-inflationary, pay protocol revenue to stakers in non-native tokens like $ETH.
🧵👇 Derivative exchanges like @GMX_IO & $GNS benefit token holders because trading profit thrives in volatility.
The House 🃏generally wins.
Consider the $GMX net P&L below. This results in a 70% revenue distribution to $GMX's collateral vault, $GLP, & 30% 💰 to $GMX stakers.
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Bears are for building & I’ve noticed A LOT of dApps sprucing up their front ends.
Appearance matters. There is a legit need to make UIs more user friendly w/objective analytics.
➡️ If you are a web3 protocol looking for a refresh, the best UI guy in the biz is @Tendeeno_
🧵👇 If you are a @CurveFinance or @ConvexFinance maxi like myself, you may recognize @Tendeeno_'s work from Llama.Airforce. His UI for @0xAlunara + Benny arguably helped ignite the Curve Wars by providing a beautiful front end to demonstrate historic APR & bribe revenue.
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RIP $OHM forks are dead. 💀
Lets pour one out for the fallen: @squiddao, @snowdog, @KlimaDAO etc.
However, some $OHM forks still survive in name only bc they have pivoted to a stronger narrative & deforked.
Sit down, let me tell you the story of @UmamiFinance.
🧵👇 In 2021, a waifu infested 💩 $OHM fork called @UmamiFinance launched to great acclaim on #Arbitrum.
It had 2 different hideous front ends & +1000% APR. As the market became disenfranchised w/ $OHM forks, value plummeted from an ATH of $161 to an ATL of $6.51.
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Yesterday a VERY interesting thing happened.👀
New @Futureverse22 posted & quickly deleted a picture of @marshmello.
@aaronmcdnz & @SharaSenderoff are listed as entity owners on the same day as @altstatemachine, @flufworld & @seekers_xyz content appears in a $150m SPAC IPO.
🧵👇 The SPAC is a $150m vehicle called "Metaverse Acquisitions Corp" announced on @Twitter here:

https://twitter.com/tradedvc/status/1529103969141895168?s=21&t=RKbFZbqXSV-mEVHzoNsItw

You can also review the SEC filing from 5/13/22 here:
sec.report/Document/00012…
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