Thread by @raul_6102

The scarcity of #Bitcoin is tougher than you might think.

When Bitcoin is adopted globally, its scarcity will hit harder and faster than our minds can comprehend.

In this little weekend project I estimated how many people can own a full BTC? And 10? And 21?

I #RunTheNumbers🧵

Of course, we know the theory.

There will be a maximum amount of 21M #Bitcoin.

That means that the theoretical max # of hodlers is:
- Wholecoiners (1 BTC)-> 21M
- Satoshi Billionaires (10 BTC)-> 2.1M
- One-in-a-Million Club (21 BTC)-> 1M

In reality, the distribution varies significantly from the theory. I took a look at the "Bitcoin Rich List" and here is my rough estimation:

- Wholecoiners (1BTC)-> ~2M
- Satoshi Billionaires (10BTC)-> ~445.000
- One-in-a-Million Club (21BTC)-> ~215.000

bitinfocharts.com/top-100-riches…

Disclaimer: This is a very rough estimation of maximum amount of hodlers based on the number of addresses, as reported by the Bitcoin Rich List.

Some assumptions in my method are as follows:

- One address belongs to one person, which gives us the first limit to the amount of hodlers in any bracket. In reality, one address could belong to many people (e.g. multisig), but this only dilutes the amount owned by the hodlers, so I thought it was a fair trade-off.

There is one big exception to this, which is exchanges' addresses.
Exchange addresses belong to many users, so if one exchange address has e.g. 100k BTC, there could be 100k people that own at least 1BTC, and my estimation would be deeply flawed.

Knowing this, I am not taking that potential splits into account, which means that the final number of max number of hodlers could increase significantly.

- On the bright side, there are several estimations that place the amount of "Satoshi coins" plus lost coins in the millions. So I'll let that balance the potential flaw by not breaking down exchanges' addresses.

- Finally, I assumed that one person could be the owner of enough addresses to make up 1BTC or 10BTC or 21BTC.

In conclusion, a plausible estimations of the real amount of hodlers brings down the theoretical limits enormously.

- Wholecoiners -> From 21M to ~2M (10x less)
- Satoshi Billionaires -> From 2.1M ~445K (5x less)
- One-in-a-Million Club -> From 1M to ~215k (5x less)

Such concentration of wealth is something unheard of, even by our today's standards,where around 50M fiat millionaires are estimated to exist.

It's plausible that there will be only ~2M people with at least 1BTC.

When people realise this,what will be the purchase power of 1BTC?

Therefore, do not be distracted by the bear market and STACK ACCORDINGLY!
#Bitcoin

https://twitter.com/raul_6102/status/1545855216444227586

And here the receipt of the calculations

For comparison:
- there are 56 millions of millionaires globally (people with a net worth above $1M)
- there are 2 millions of people with at least 1 BTC.

What happens when those 56M millionaires want #Bitcoin?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c…