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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Jul 11

#EU_Gas_Sanctions: France shares Germany's concerns about a total gas cut-off by Russia in the coming months. This seemed like an inevitable scenario more than 4 months ago, when Russia started the war against Ukraine. One of the main conditions that determined Moscow (long 🧵)⤵️

to initiate the aggression was precisely the situation in the gas market. More precisely, we are talking about the interplay between the huge structural dependence of the vast majority of EU states on Russian gas and the skyrocketing prices of energy sources throughout 2021. ⤵️

However, the EU's focus was mainly on the development of sanctions, including on energy, and not on a serious risk assessment with immediate preparations for the worst gas cut scenario. The assumption that Russia will not cut off gas supplies before the EU embargo will kick-off⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Jul 10

#Ukraine_EU: The country needs about $5 billion a month to spend on defense and social spending. The EU has promised to deliver a billion euros or 9 times less than previously promised. Germany rejects the idea of lending money to Ukraine as part of EU joint bonds issued ⤵️

to obtain financing on int. markets for the post-COVID-19 recovery. The frugal features of Germany come to life (again). As winter approaches, others are likely to join the German opposition (Austria and the Netherlands are the usual suspects). Without German approval, the EU ⤵️

cannot lend money to Ukraine, which risks defaulting on $900 million in debts in the fall. Russia is waging a war of attrition in Ukraine on the ground and "at distance" against the EU, which has acknowledged that sanctions are hurting the European (not just Russian) economy.⤵️

Read 7 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Jun 21

#Ukraine_Moldova_Georgia: The highest public support for EU membership is found in Ukraine and Georgia (>80%). In the former, the population has put EU integration at the heart of the defense war against Russian aggression. All interested parties are united around the central⤵️

authorities of Kyiv. Georgia has witnessed the largest demonstration in the last decade, which brought together 160,000 people, without any monopoly over the citizens’ mobilization by political parties (of which the majority face public mistrust, both in the ruling party⤵️

and in the opposition). Compared to the previous two, Moldova is in a different position: public simpathy for EU membership is below 60% and its public demonstration is heavily suppressed by the low popularity of the pro-EU government (around 25 % or half of support for the EU)⤵️

Read 4 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Jun 20

#EU_Russia: Borrell's statements about Lithuania's application of the sanctions regime sound disjointed and unconvincing in terms of preventing Russian pressure on Vilnius. He insists that Lithuania is applying EU sanctions (which is correct). They restrict the transport⤵️

to/from Kaliningrad of a very specific category of goods in transit through Lithuania. Borrell admitted that Vilnius has guidelines provided by the Commission, after consultations. After saying that, he suggests double-checking if the correct guidelines were given to Lithuania.⤵️

In addition, the head of EU diplomacy announced that he will double check the compatibility between sanctions and the law (probably hinting at the 2002 transit agreement with Russia). First, it is imperative that the EU see if there is any discrepancy between sanctions⤵️

Read 5 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Jun 20

#Georgia: Peaceful pro-EU rally takes place in Tbilisi. The ordinary citizens are the main protagonists, not the political parties. This is one of the largest manifestations of pro-EU sentiments of Georgians in years in an attempt to draw the attention of Brussels.

My Georgian friends tell me that people are up for two things: the EU candidacy and early parliamentary elections.

@SalomeUgr

By @SalomeUgr

Read 4 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Jun 20

#EU_Russia: This week's tensions between theo-geopolitical players will unfold around three main themes: 1) The EU Council's decision on the EU candidacy of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia will make Moscow uncomfortable, even if it denies it. Meanwhile, Russia announced new⤵️

attacks on Ukraine's Lugansk region to occupy Severodonetsk and Lysichansk, facing counterattacks from Ukraine. Russia's intensified military action could also be used to incentivize the Eurosceptics to lower the candidacy offer to Ukraine. This may also have a negative⤵️

indirect effect on Moldova and Georgia. It is worth observing whether the results of the French parliamentary elections can mark the candidacy prospects of Eastern Europeans. 2) Lithuania could feel increased and new pressure from Russia to implement sanctions on the transit⤵️

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