Thread by @DionisCenusa

#Ukraine_EU: The country needs about $5 billion a month to spend on defense and social spending. The EU has promised to deliver a billion euros or 9 times less than previously promised. Germany rejects the idea of lending money to Ukraine as part of EU joint bonds issued ⤵️

to obtain financing on int. markets for the post-COVID-19 recovery. The frugal features of Germany come to life (again). As winter approaches, others are likely to join the German opposition (Austria and the Netherlands are the usual suspects). Without German approval, the EU ⤵️

cannot lend money to Ukraine, which risks defaulting on $900 million in debts in the fall. Russia is waging a war of attrition in Ukraine on the ground and "at distance" against the EU, which has acknowledged that sanctions are hurting the European (not just Russian) economy.⤵️

Only Germany estimates to register lack of economic growth accounting for dozens of € billions in 2022 due to the mixture of sanctions and energy crisis. Without the money and military aid from the EU, Ukraine could be forced to sign the ceasefire agreement, although it is⤵️

determined to fight Russian aggression to the end. That is one of the reasons why the EU has accelerated the development of legislation allowing Russian money and assets to be confiscated and the money to be transferred to Ukraine. von der Leyen mentioned that this money will⤵️

be used for post-war reconstruction, but I think this money will be needed before the war is over. While Russia will retaliate with its own confiscations of the property of EU companies, in Europe we could see a growing divide between elites who are ready to absorb the costs⤵️

while maintaining solidarity with Ukraine and the rest of the population that it is already angrily confronting spikes in utility prices, etc. As I mentioned on various occasions, the anti-governmental protests and the subsequent rise of Eurosceptics cannot be ruled out.