Why the stupid hoops to jump through for everything?
1/
It has become near impossible to stay on top of projects you are already involved with. Allowlist, free mints, airdrops, mints, registrations, dutch auctions, auctions. and all the things just to get to some "next" level of utopia, the promise of riches or (breathlessly) a game!
This makes it super hard for anyone but degens. Im all for gamification but this is as starting to look like a game for a games sake with ever the promise... much like the path to a Goldman Sachs partnership... endless carrot, lots of stick.
Can't we make communities and their rewards simpler?
Have a community entry pass NFT.
Sub-divide the community with NFT's to allow like minded people to collaborate and then once there is utility, you can have a utility/social/community token for broader network effects.
Serums and all that stuff just make it feel like a money flywheel and not a community.
I am happy to invest in projects that have long term potential but this stuff is a distraction to most.
I do think the space needs to re-innovate and simplify, or as @CozomoMedici thinks, maybe the art market is in fact easier for investors. You just buy it and own it.
Let's see the next iterations but hoop-jumping days are near an end in my opinion. It is just too much.
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My working hypothesis is that the US economy cant take real rates above the regression channel and that the average (or fair value) of 5 year real rates is around -1% (150bps lower) due to debt and demographics. 1/
5 year breakevens look like they have topped out and a break of 250bps will lead to mean reverse back to 150bps maybe (I understand and take on board the complexity of de-globalisation and tight commodity markets).
The big question is whether this pattern in yields is a potential H&S top or a correction before higher rates. The balance of probability for me is a break lower.
I co-founded another new business in Web 3! (time to BUIDL).
ScienceMagic.Studios is a token studio working with the biggest communities and brand in the world. 1/
Our mission is to tokenize the worlds largest cultural communities - music, fashion, movies/book/TV franchises and sports - utilizing NFT's, social tokens and metaverse to build community, utility and experience.
There are $63trn of intangibles on global balance sheets of corporations. Tokenization turns brand and community into tangibles and shares the utility and network with the community. It is potentially the biggest change in business models in a very very long time.
Fighting 8% CPI (call that the global average - no idea actually but about right?), we have destroyed so far:
21% of global GDP in equity values
10% of global GDP in bond values
5% in other assets
And soon probably another 2% to 3% of GDP growth
1/
That is a LOT of wealth destruction - 36% of world GDP.
Near full Covid boom unwind...and back to square one - slow growth and low inflation again (my best guess of all the possible outcomes).
My fear is for the Baby Boomers. At around 67 years old, cant afford to lose this.
Yet they couldn't afford the inflation too, if it persisted (which I don't believe it will - commodities might remain higher due to supply issues, but it's the YoY price changes that matter the most and they wont persist to the same extent).
FinTwit is mentally exhausting these days, even after my holiday… the issue is one of probabilistic outcomes 1/
Right now there are more realistic possible outcomes than at any time I’ve ever worked in and as a macro investor my job is to endlessly reassess the odds of the outcomes. Hence why it’s exhausting!
So, what are the main probabilistic outcomes?
1. Recession where inflation is not fully brought to heel and thus rates remain higher for longer and inflation comes back after recession. This is the core FinTwit view and is very reasonable. This is the 1970’s redux view. I think we lack demand for this.
At Madrid airport headed back home to Cayman after an amazing 3 weeks of Valencia, Jávea, Formentera and Ibiza. ❤️ Spain. Anyway, some thoughts on the lending mess in CeFi…1/
This entire episode of 3AC reminds me a lot of LTCM… for those who aren’t familiar, LTCM were a large hedge fund in the late 1990’s built by Nobel prize winners and the worlds most famous arbitrageurs from Salomon Bros, the famous risk taking investment bank…
Known as the Smartest Guys in the Room, everyone wanted to do business with them. As a young equity derivative salesman at Natwest running the hedge fund desk, they were my largest client.
In Eq Derivs they did three main types of trades - share class arbitrage, vol arb and