#PSA for SARS-CoV-2 variant surveillance folks:
We've just released a new Nextclade dataset that can detect BA.2.75, even if there are lots of dropouts and sequencing artefacts as shown in the screenshot where many sequences have dropout in the RBD. 1/
👉 clades.nextstrain.org
BA.2.75 has 16 nucleotide mutations in addition to the branch it attaches to (BA.2 + 25416T, which is incidentally the one that BA.2.12.1 is also on). That's why it can be confidently called even if sequence quality is problematic. 2/
If you want to browse through the zoo of Pango lineages, what mutations they have and how they relate, you can have a look at this Nextstrain tree.
Ironically, BA.2.75 seems to continue the flip-flopping of the S:69/70 deletion highlighted in yellow. 3/
nextstrain.org/staging/nextcl…

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More from @CorneliusRoemer

Jul 12
Cautiously optimistic news from Germany on #monkeypox containment
Not only has case growth slowed but 7d case averages seem to drop for the first time.
More than half of all German cases have been reported in Berlin despite it accounting for just 3m out of 80m inhabitants. 1/
Here you can see distribution by state (unfortunately lacking population adjustment for now, I think @theochemiker is working on it) and age distribution.
Kudos for publishing data at such granularity (even by county!) @rki_de. Data on sex/gender seems not available, sadly. 2/
For daily updates visit this Github repo by the amazing @theochemiker: github.com/micb25/RKI_Mon…
@Karl_Lauterbach please thank whoever at @rki_de is working on survstat and monkeypox, this is really good. Publish the raw data and the community will take care of visualization! 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 5
This is just not how this works.
These R0 estimates falsely assume there is no population immunity. But especially Omicrons have mostly thrived due to immune escape since there are very few unvaccinated, uninfected people left.
Omicron R0s are unlikely to be higher than Delta's. So just for context   Wuhan...
It's not at all trivial to measure R0 in populations that have almost no naive individuals left.
The closest we can maybe is unvaxxed household secondary attack rate, but even then - chance is that someone will have been infected in the past.
What is definitely not correct is to simply assume that _all_ of the growth advantage of new variants is due to transmissibility increase.
With that logic, influenza virus would have R0 of >100+ if you start with R0=2 in 1920, an absurd number.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 19
Putin has obviously timed gas cuts to Germany very carefully.When:
- German public is getting numb to the war
- there's less time to prepare for winter shortage
- respected non-expert opinion journalists start doubting Ukrainian ability to defeat Russia even with more weapons 1/
Not boycotting Russian gas immediately has made Germany blackmailable
Putin can tune the amount of pain he wants to inflict on Germany.
When Scholz appeases, he'll send more gas, when he is displeased (by e.g. weapons deliveries) he'll turn the gas off.
Perfect torture device 2/
Of course Russia won't be open about this, otherwise it would increase public pressure on Scholz.
By giving bogus reasons like "failing turbines" Putin gives Scholz the ability to save face.
What's the evidence for this theory?
Gas has not been cut completely, only throttled. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jun 18
It's essential to normalize epidemiological case data relative to countries' population size.
I created a Google Sheet to do just that for monkeypox, based on the fantastic @globaldothealth dataset.
Here's the result visualized with @Datawrapper:
datawrapper.de/_/J70fo/ 1/
It would be great if @globaldothealth implemented this directly inside the "Cases by Country" sheet. Maybe this thread can serve as motivation for how useful that feature would be.
Absolute comparison when inappropriate is a major pet peeve of mine. 2/
You can use my Google Sheet as data source for your own plots or as inspiration how to calculate relative incidences based on the @globaldothealth sheet yourself.
The sheet is openly viewable (and copiable) here:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… 3/
Read 10 tweets
Jun 17
A German monkeypox patient has written an informative 23 tweet thread (not an actual thread, so navigate to their profile for the list of threads)
First misdiagnosed as syphilis.
Here's another thread from a different German patient.
Hats off for sharing your experiences.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 3
Phylogenetic tree of the West African clade with new US outbreak sequences (Virginia, Florida): nextstrain.org/monkeypox?c=co…
The tree is built using a @nextstrain build, using @CDCgov @CrystalGigante et al's sequences via @NCBI, pre-processed with @GenSpectrum
Open data at its best
Here are pictures from the current outbreak, so you know what to look out for
Sources:
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
Here are two more @Eurosurveillanc papers worth reading:
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
Read 4 tweets

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