I have very little news today. The Kharkiv area: Lots of artillery fire. Ukraine used artillery combined with helicopters to attack Kozacha Lopan, Tsupivka, and Velyki Prokhody. Russians tried to attack Dementiivka and were repelled (1).
Russians claim they destroyed a Ukrainian recon element that pushed out of Dementiivka (2). They claim to have killed 5 and captured 10.
The mystery Ivanivka: There are *so many* Ivanivkas. Today, there were reports that Russia shelled an Ivanivka and that Ukraine repelled an attack that came from the direction of an Ivanivka. I assumed it was the southern Ivanivka on this map (3).
Then, later in the day, I got confirmation from a Russian source that the more northern Ivanivka (blue arrow) was heavily shelled by Ukrainian forces (which would make sense if Russia was attacking from there).
Note that this northern Ivanivka has the "fortified town" marker. This is a built up base the Russians have been using for a while now. Also note that there are Ukrainian forces just west (Mospanove and Yavirske) that appear to have been static for weeks now. They aren't static.
If I piece together the information from Russian sources and Ukrainian sources, it makes me wonder if Ukraine is getting close to attacking this northern Ivanivka? As opposed to the more southern one? Or perhaps both?! Why are there so many Ivanivkas?!
Oh, before I move on, I want to note that Russia confirmed that Ukraine shelled these two towns and also said "among others".
The Izyum area is more or less unchanged from recent days. I saw no comments on the Russian offensive actions out of Mazanivka and towards Krasnopillya or Bohorodychne today, but I assume they proceeded as per usual: lots of casualties and no success.
Which is what happened when they attacked Dolyna (4). Note that Ukrainian artillery is pounding Brazhkivka and Sulyhivka (5). Also note that I think Ukraine may have captured Dibrovne but I cannot find confirmation.
The Siversk area: Skirmishing along the whole line, Russians are trying to attack towards Ivano-Darivka but they cannot break through the defenses on the outskirts of Spirne (5). Russia tried to attack Yakolivka but were hammered by artillery and ran away (6).
The Bakhmut area: Russia made a half hearted recon by combat attempt towards Pokrovske but were scattered (7). Russia is trying to attack towards Vesela Dolyna (8) and Vershyna (9) but the attacks were destroyed by Ukrainian artillery.
New York/Horlivka area: Lots of artillery and skirmishes along the line.
The Donetsk area: Both Russian and Ukrainian artillery is focusing on attacking and destroying the supply lines. Ukraine is attacking the warehouses and ammo stores inside Donetsk, Russia is attacking the towns and roads that supply the Ukrainian forces.
The Hulyaipole, Velyka Novosilka, and Vuhledar line: Note that Ukraine is firing artillery into Mykilske (east of Vuhledar). Ukraine tried to attack towards Novoukrainske from Olhivske, but the attack was stopped by concentrated artillery fire (10).
The Orikhiv/Kamyanske line: Lots of artillery and air strikes along the Ukrainian defensive line. Ukraine opened up and hit Vasylivka hard with artillery.
Yesterday, Ukraine destroyed the Russian base at Myrne, just north of Melitopol. By the way, that munitions in that stockpile took over 5 hours to finish burning and exploding. After that attack, Russia pulled their forces down to Okhrimivka (11) and Kyrylivka (12)
There are rumors that up to 60 Russian soldiers deserted in the Zaporizhzhia area and the FSB sent out people to search for them. This isn't the first time Russians have attempted to desert in this area, and if my tally in my notebook is right I think we might be up to ~500.
The area between Kryvyi Rih and Kherson: I have no news from this area, but one observation: Notice that the Russians claim to have been hit by artillery in Novooleksandrivka, but not Myhailivka or Zolota Balka. Perhaps my map is right, and this is their northern most point?
I want to start by saying I don’t have access to official documents or meetings, so I’m piecing together their motivations based on what I observe and logical reasoning. Keep that in mind as you read on.
This year, Russia's goals are threefold. First, to capture the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. Second, to capture Kostyantynivka. Third, to capture Slovyansk.
Each of these goals has necessary steps. To capture the bank in Zaporizhzhia, you must first capture Orikhiv. To capture Slovyansk, you must first capture Lyman. You could argue that to capture Kostyantynivka, you must first capture Chasiv Yar.
These goals are very ambitious and, honestly, impossible to fully achieve. So let’s think of them as aspirations and focus instead on how close Russia might get to reaching them.
Ukraine launched several counterattacks in the Verbove and Ternove areas of Zaporizhzhia. They were quite successful, pushing Russia out of several settlements and possibly capturing some. This also threatened Russia’s main supply route to the west. Because of this, Russia has to do two things: divert resources from their main attack to stabilize the area and try to recapture this ground to keep pushing west toward Orikhiv. Meanwhile, Ukraine gains time to strengthen defenses, plan their strategy, and prepare for more counterattacks, something Russia worries about given their timeline.
This has already delayed Russia’s offensive by months, and it will take many more weeks for them to regain their previous position.
Recently, Russia tried an armored assault on Orikhiv, which failed badly (A). They also tried to advance through Mala Tokmachka (B) before, but that failed too. A direct attack on Orikhiv is unlikely to succeed without heavy losses, so Russia wants to avoid it unless they have no choice. Still, based on past experience, they might end up having to take the town this way.
The military analysis of Iran has been the absolute worst military analysis I have ever seen in my entire life.
There have been times where I listen to some "expert" where almost every word they say in the entire interview is factually wrong. Some of these people are so wrong that I feel like you could have a big box of words and reach in and draw them randomly and it be more factual.
To prove my point, I just asked a LLM to analyze the form of a normal military interview on cable news and using strictly randomly generated words and no access to the actual news please give me a report on what's going on in Ian (unironically, this is what LLMs are good at, probably, just lying about shit):::
From an operational standpoint, the expanding American strike corridor may complicate Iran’s layered coastal defenses, which could scatter missile batteries inland.
At the tactical level, the Iranian drone screen might disrupt a forward U.S. maneuver package, which could stall momentum along the maritime axis.
From the broader battlefield geometry, the concentrated American carrier posture may pressure Iran’s southern command network, which could trigger rapid repositioning of defensive units.
Right now on the ground, the reinforced Iranian coastal belt might absorb the initial U.S. probing attacks, which could slow the opening phase of the campaign.
The main thing that any educated person needs to keep in mind at all times is that realpolitik is fake and everyone who believes in it is typically universally wrong on every single word they ever say.
It is especially funny because realpolitik people are almost never experts in any domain, and they get their info from aggregators. And those aggregators know the realpolitik people use them, and as such present info in a way most likely to influence the realpolitik.
They end up just being unwitting amplifiers of misinformation.
Frankly I think the fastest way to end the war in Ukraine is not by sending tanks or by idiotic peace proposals. The fastest way is to set up factories across europe to produce 1000-2000 long range strike drones per day, and launch hundreds if not thousands of drones into Russia every single day until the country collapses. If they think sending 500 drones into Ukraine is a threat, see how they respond when 3000 drones fly into Russia.
With this many drones you can hammer every single factory, powerplant, substation, oil refinery, and mine in russia relentlessly.
Europe had a million drone program, to supply 1 million fpv drones. Fuck fpv drones. Have a 1 million drone program to supply 1 million strike drones. That's your million drones.
The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.
The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.