MINISTRY OF THE FUTURE
A sci-fi novella for Twitter
Names of places, people, organisations are purely fictional. Any coincidence with real names is purely accidental
ACROSS Europe the forest fires began to rage. The war began the same day. This was a summer like no other.
Water and chemicals were needed at the fire frontline. But there was no transport. XR climate rebels had disabled retail gas and petrol chains everywhere last winter. And recovery had been slow.
Electric vehicles could not reach the fire. Where they could, batteries began exploding in the intense heat. As firefighters turned back, the unchecked flames began to sweep over the land. Rural Europe would never be the same again....
... as the fires consumed forests, agricultural land and then communities in their midst. Meantime, governments' attentions were divided. Through the corridors that were accessible, troops and their armour, began to move. A war they had sleep walked into had begun.
What had begun as a proxy conflict 20 years ago in the Ukraine, had slowly spiralled up into wider conflict. Torn between getting out of fossil fuels quickly and the Europe's imperial insistence on their right to cheap energy as they saw fit, the latter had carried the day.
Regime after regime saw it easier to appease their citizens with cheap energy and finger-pointing at China, Brazil and India. The carbon trading system had collapsed after the first few years as massive cronyism and corruption in allocations had gutted the system.
So war it was..over gas lines and oil supplies as Russia diverted it to Africa and South Asia. As troop and armour began to roll, it would soon become difficult to distinguish between the fires from heat and those from war - little though it mattered to those trapped within.
Urban Europe bore the brunt of war. It was war on slow-burn. Yes the pun is deliberate. Governments, as divided at home as between themselves, struggled to keep going. Alongside climate terrorists, the anti-science of the COVID pandemic had morphed into a "deny all" movement.
Vandalising renewable installations was their contribution, with pitched battles with the climate terrorists on occasion as the police struggled to keep control. After the pandemic, the early promise of Europe leading climate action had wilted away.
Across the Channel, in London, far from the burning continent of Europe, Maria looked out on the desolate streets where long lines snaked out of food depots, as the poor, now more than half the population, sought to keep body and soul together. She was lucky...
Her work with the Climate Council ensured that she was among the nomenklatura that had access to facilities and goods. Either that or one had to be incredibly rich, one of the 20,000 families that ran Britain and determined how it worked. The cities had emptied ...
.. in a digital Britain that produced nothing and bought all it needed from outside. The rich and middle class, had taken refuge in the countryside, digitizaton aiding their move. 20 years ago it had all seemed wonderfully possible - the zero emissions Britain that was promised.
They had certainly succeeded in forcing their emissions down, Patricia mused, but at what cost! When she moved here at that time, it had all seemed the best way to go...how had had this descended into this morass of inequality she wondered...
The media laid the blame for Britain's collapse on globalizaton and general of the retreat world-wide into a counter-culture of autarky, while East and South Asia had turned inward, though open to each other, leaving Europe and the US out of the equation.
All sacrifices to no avail of course, as their Atlantic cousins had left both the Paris Agreement and its successor the London Agreement. With Senator Munchkin's presidency, the US had turned its back on everything that it had agreed to earlier.
But worse was on the way. Maria's colleague Jean, longing to go back to a home he could not return to in France, worried about his daughter in the United States. Unprecedented xenophobic violence had taken over -- though an Europe embroiled in war hardly noticed.
It was xenophobia for climate. Americans now believed that immigration was the cause for rising extreme events in the US and the country had turned to even more violent rebuff of legal and illegal migration. Discourage them from coming (with guns) was the common excuse.
Three decades of small nations looking to the US for leadership had led nowhere...as they stared at sea-level rise on their doorsteps. The only bright shaft of sunshine from the darkened sky was the offer of Asia to accommodate the refugees of the Pacific.
LOOK BEFORE YOU LEAP!!
Indeed I have a comment to make, @jmauskar sir. The comment below is profoundly irritating. Calculations of the kind that @rishpardikar so glowingly refers to have been done several times over in the past two decades.
The idea that there is a global commons defined by limits on cumulative emissions is specifically one that @KanitkarT and I have explored over the years. The connection to equity both as burden sharing and the sharing of a global commons has been explored by several.
This kind of analysis, with other dimensions of equity as well, is well covered in the Climate Equity Monitor. climateequitymonitor.in. We exclude LULUCF precisely because of uncertainty, serious issues of methodology and extrapolation by modelling.
Shocking tweet by the President of #COP26. Were his dramatics at the closing plenary in Glasgow for real? Here he is, tweeting support to immediate expansion of UK oil and gas. What "new clean energy technology" is he talking about? Stay with the thread... 1/n
See the letter from UK Secy of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy to oil & gas industry that President of #COP26 is referring to. Open encouragement to invest in oil and gas expansion. New round of auctions of leases to begin. 2/n
Breathtaking hypocrisy. The Energy Secy. asks industry "to set out how you will reinvest profits, double down on investments in the clean energy transition (sic!) and importantly to maximise domestic oil and gas production." 3/n
If @SominiSengupta were to read IPCC WG3 report, the responsibility for this heat lies almost entirely outside India. So for a heat wave in India, the critical question is "how will US, EU". It is their responsibility that has brought us here. That is the first crucial test.
"How will US, EU respond" -- that is the question Especially for a paper like the NYT, the screaming headline should be "Millions face deadly heat in India -- United States leads in culpability".
More seriously, the de-growth delusion is now embraced by many mainstream multilateral agencies. Their bureaucracies have agendas of their own set by the perspectives of the Global North, with rare exceptions. Being pro-South has come down to embracing such fads.
Variants of de-growth include ignoring productivity growth in agriculture, cutting off energy access despite dire energy poverty, etc. De-growth is only distinguished by its "leftish" rhetoric referring to the whole economy.
Multi-laterals in the loop include FAO (airtime for agroecology/zero-budget natural farming), UNDP (HDR 2020 gives considerable airtime to de-growth), IPCC (de-growth well represented in AR6, open challenge issues some time ago that de-growth will be mainstreamed in AR6)
WHY THE US "GREEN NEW DEAL" IS A "GREEN RAW DEAL" FOR THE REST OF THE WORLD!!
Here is a good example of arguing to stop coal power in India, without applying any of the reasoning to the developed countries -- like the US for a start. hindustantimes.com/india-news/ind…
The sub-title itself is problematic. Why should India stop firing more coal plants BEFORE money and technology is made available? 17 years from Rio to Copenhangen for the USD 100 billion annually by 2020 promise. 12 years on no sign of the money. So how does this make sense?
Article starts with reference to equity and historical cumulative emissions of developed countries. Don't be fooled. This is a fake manoeuvre for the main argument against India to follow. Plus the internationalist touch. Quote George Monbiot -- cool!! (No Indian will do, right?)
Excellent review of #COP26. Sees through the illusion of US as climate leader. Very understanding of India's position. An excellent,nuanced, parsing of the coal para in the decision and the goings on of the plenary.
Notes the importance of PM Modi's early announcements and the eloquent articulation of India's Env Minister @byadavbjp at the closing plenary of the equity dimension and why developing countries still need fossil fuels.