Thread by @DrSimEvans

It's the second Conservative leadership #ITVdebate tonight & I'll be watching what they say about climate and energy like a hawk

On just before the debate  – news from @metoffice

90% chance of new UK heat record
60% chance of breaching 40C

Live THREAD + couple of previews

1/

Energy bills are almost certain to feature tonight, so let's start by setting the record straight: 94% of the coming rise to £3,300 in October is due to soaring gas prices

Green levies will fall from current 5% to ~3%

2/

https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1547530971054063616

We may also hear talk of gas as a "transition fuel", so it's worth remembering that gas is the single-largest source of greenhouse gases in the UK

Moreover, it's only a "transition" or "bridge" away from coal – except we've already crossed that bridge

3/

Q1 – cost of living crisis…

Truss mentions energy bills – "temporary relief on the energy levy" (which is worth max £150 on bills expected to reach £3,300)

Tugendhat wants to cut fuel duty – (fuel bills are high cos fossil fuels are expensive)

4/

Mordaunt to halve VAT on fuel at pump – worth max £10 on a £100 tank. (Driving an EV could save £60+)

5/

https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1534901803703222272

(Here's a chart showing why pump prices are REALLY going up – it's all about expensive oil – the red bit – tax take is **falling** as share of cost of filling a tank)

6/

(Oh look – another chart I prepared earlier – high pump prices in the UK are directly correlated with and actually caused by international oil prices)

7/

Thin pickings on climate & energy so far. What have I missed? Candidates have missed a lot – eg tackling demand, in homes, in cars etc

It's quickest & cheapest way to save ppl money!

eg driving 10mph slower on mway cuts journey cost by same amount as halving VAT on fuel

8/

To repeat, the UK's almost certain to see an all-time heat record over the next couple of days and quite likely to see first-ever temps above 40C…

…and yet, nearly 30mins into #itvdebate they've not been asked about climate change (nor have any candidates mentioned it)🤯

9/

Climate Q refs red warning on extreme heat. Would you back down on net-zero target?

Mordaunt: Yes, but mustn't "clobber ppl"
Tugendgat: (doesn't answer yes or no)
Badenoch: If there are things that will bankrupt country, I will change them…I do believe in climate

10/

Truss: I back the net-zero target. Moratorium on green levy and "take it out of general tax" (pay from, presumably?)
Sunak: Yes, but not "too hard and too fast"

11/

(oops, in those tweets "yes" was yes they support net-zero – in case that wasn't clear!)

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Quick thoughts – on Badenoch holding out prospect of net-zero bankrupting the country, that's…bold

Latest @theCCCuk report said, with current record-high fossil fuel prices, UK could actually **save 0.5% of GDP** by going to net-zero

13/

carbonbrief.org/ccc-costly-gas…

On Truss and green levies, I think she must have misspoken and actually meant she would temporarily pay for green levies out of general taxation

28m homes / £150 per home

= £4.2bn a year for the Treasury…

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