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Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
@SubramanianKri
Jul 19, 2022 • 10 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
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As employment is an area where uninformed/ misinformed narratives have been endemic, creating a #thread on #jobs to #inform. Again, let us go by the complete #evidence from NSSO's PLFS, which has a very reliable survey methodology 1/9
First, academic research in @epw_in why CMIE employment data is unreliable epw.in/journal/2021/5…
Original ET article economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobs/a-tale-of…
Mahesh Vyas's (IMO feeble) defense economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/et-com…
Original Authors' (IMO constructive) rejoinder
economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/et-com… 2/9
3/9 #thread on #jobs to #inform
4/9 #thread on #jobs to #inform
5/9 #thread on #jobs to #inform
6/9 #thread on #jobs to #inform
7/9 #thread on #jobs to #inform
8/9 #thread on #jobs to #inform
9/9 #thread on #jobs to #inform
9/9 #thread on #jobs to #inform

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More from @SubramanianKri

Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
Jun 16, 2023
As India pitches for ratings upgrade, reminding @SPGlobalRatings @MoodysInvSvc @FitchRatings @DBRSMorningstar using evidence from #EcoSurvey2021 why India's sovereign rating must be upgraded several notches🧵1/20
For details, see indiabudget.gov.in/budget2021-22/…
business-standard.com/economy/news/i… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
1. 5th largest eco has never been ranked as low as India is👇
Rating=Probability of Default =f(Ability2Repay + Intent2Repay)
GDP best reflects Ability2Repay=> ratings criteria used by @SPGlobalRatings @MoodysInvSvc @FitchRatings @DBRSMorningstar is conceptually FLAWED. 2/20 Image
2. Rating=Probability of Default =f(Ability2Repay + Intent2Repay)
As forex reserves r used to repay external (i.e. foreign currency) debt & short-term debt is repayable over 1-yr, short-term external debt as % of reserves capture Ability2Repay.
India is CLEAR +ve outlier👇3/20 Image
Read 20 tweets
Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
May 27, 2023
🧵#9YearsOfPMModi #PhenomenalEconomicChanges
Jefferies, a Global Investment Bank, notes in its periodic report GREED&FEAR that “the dramatic changes wrought by Modi after 10yrs in power have been phenomenal.” 🧵using Jefferies' report 1/22
#9YearsOfPMModi #PositiveEconomicOutlier Combine Jefferies' observation w/ this fact: For the 1st time since independence, India is a +ve outlier on both macro-fundamentals and economic growth. That itself is testimony to #PhenomenalEconomicChanges in #9YearsOfPMModi. 2/22
#9YearsOfPMModi #InflatioTrendsDown
CPI Inflation and Core Inflation are trending down. The expectation is that inflation should run around 5% for the rest of this year which is below the upper band of the RBI’s target, namely 6%. 3/22 Image
Read 22 tweets
Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
May 12, 2023
Presenting a Synopsis of our book #MoneyAZeroSumGame thru this presentation. Thread🧵where each tweet contains the image of a slide. Thread #3 Image
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Read 22 tweets
Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
May 12, 2023
Presenting a Synopsis of our book #MoneyAZeroSumGame thru this presentation. Thread🧵where each tweet contains the image of a slide. Thread #2 Image
Image
Image
Read 19 tweets
Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
May 12, 2023
Presenting a Synopsis of our book #MoneyAZeroSumGame thru this presentation. Thread🧵where each tweet contains the image of a slide. Thread #1 Image
Image
Image
Read 24 tweets
Prof. Krishnamurthy V Subramanian Profile picture
May 1, 2023
🧵employing rigorous analysis to show "Why CMIE's Employment (& other Survey) Data is unreliable" from a working paper of mine (Singh & Subramanian, 2023) that will be released in a few days. Sharing pages from the relevant subsection:
Page 1: Image
Page 2: Image
Page 3: Image
Read 8 tweets

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