06.02.2025 update with information about the hottest front sections in the last 24 hours:
#ChasivYar : The tourists attacked our positions inside the city itself. Our defenders repelled the attack and eliminated 21 tourists and 2 tanks. Chasiv Yar was a small rural town that is not very large, despite this, urban battles have been going on for several months now.
The tourists have a 3:1 manpower advantage but have not yet captured the city.
#Toretsk: The tourists are trying to strengthen their grip on the city and move the fighting out of the city. They have gathered a lot of artillery here and are firing more than usual. Despite this, they successfully counterattack our positions and attacks on their support.
- Every meter they advance costs the tourists in manpower and equipment
2/ #Kurakhove: The tourists are strengthening their presence in the city and concentrating more infantry into the city. Ours are constantly attacking the various buildings where movement is detected with drones.
#Novopostynka: The tourists have taken the small community but suffered a number of losses. They are now trying to dig in and wait for a Ukrainian counterattack. Here too, the enemy used a lot of artillery.
#Konstantinyka: The tourists have attacked with a coordinated attack on our positions. Despite great pressure, ours have eliminated multiple Ryzka attack groups. In addition, we are using HIMARS and other precision weapons to knock out their convoys. Here too, the enemy has used a lot of artillery
3/ #Beretsky: here too the tourists have increased their activity but ours eliminated 19 soldiers and 2 tanks and the enemy retreated. The attacks are coming in small groups right now, a completely different picture than 2 months ago. In addition, ours are knocking out the Russians' maintenance.
#Shevchenko area: Here too the tourists' artillery fire has increased but their attacks have not led anywhere. Since the artillery fire has increased the tourists have managed to get in shells, how long they will last is another question.
#Vovchansk: the tourists have sent more reinforcements to the area. Armored columns have been observed heading towards the front and ours have been precision bombing the vehicles. Here too the Russians' artillery fire has increased
1/ The Russian army is reducing the number of attacks and dropping KABs on its territory: Seleznev explained what this means war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/armiya-rf-…
2/ The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine daily records a decrease in the number of combat clashes on the front.
Does this mean that the Russian occupation army is preparing for a pause?
It is too early to draw such conclusions, since the front is quite "segmented" - in priority areas for the enemy, its activity is still high.
However, due to huge losses, obozrevatel.com/ukr/topic/pote…
the enemy may really need a pause.
3/ If such an operational pause really happens, the Defense Forces
- will be able to use it to conduct a rotation, bring in additional forces and resources.
But regardless of the enemy's activity, the Ukrainian army faces another important task - to solve mobilization problems.obozrevatel.com/ukr/entity/voo…
1/ #Kaliningrad will be cut off from the Russian energy system in a few days: how the EU is preparing for the Kremlin's revenge
The Russian exclave in Europe, the city of Kaliningrad, will be left without external access to electricity.
The Baltic countries will be disconnected from the Russian energy system in a few days, and therefore Kaliningrad will have to provide itself with electricity independently.
Fearing retaliation from the Kremlin, #Poland and #Lithuania have increased security measures.
According to Euractiv, this region is of strategic importance for Russia, as it is home to Iskander missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and a significant part of the Russian Baltic Fleet is based there.
After the synchronization of the Baltic countries' power systems with continental Europe, which is scheduled to take place on February 9, the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation will find itself in energy isolation, operating without external connections to other power grids.
"After the synchronization of the Baltic power system with continental Europe, the Kaliningrad region will operate in island mode," Lithuanian grid operator Litgrid said.
2/ In response to the start of full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine, the European Union has begun restricting land access to the region.
And from February 7 to 9, the Baltic countries will disconnect from the Russian power grid and remove the nuclear exclave from the Russian power grid.
In the future, these lines are planned to be dismantled .
3/ The idea is that the region will become a so-called "energy island," an electricity grid without external connections.
These are more difficult to operate because they cannot rely on cross-border flows to balance fluctuations in electricity demand and supply.
Baltic energy experts say Russia has tried to thwart the region’s plans in every way , from cyberattacks to disinformation campaigns about rising electricity bills.
It is also believed that Russia could dare to resort to armed aggression against the Baltic states .
"Russia may claim that Kaliningrad, its exclave and former Königsberg, is under threat," suggests Maciej Jakubik, coordinator of European programs at the Polish think tank Forum Energi.
He noted that, just in case, Lithuania and Poland have strengthened the protection of the LitPol Link cross-border power cable . obozrevatel.com/ukr/ekonomika-…
1/ Joakim von Braun
Swedish security/EastEurope Expert:
Russia's arms exports have collapsed
Moscow's arms exports have fallen by 92 percent, reveals the Jamestown Foundation (). jamestown.org/program/russia…
2/ Before Russia's illegal war of aggression against Ukraine, Russian arms exports had climbed from 5th place in the world rankings to number 2. Now the Russian arms industry can neither produce weapons for export nor for its own use.
3/ Previously, the Russians exported weapons to a total of 31 countries. This has now fallen to 12. The five largest customers are India, China, Egypt, Algeria and Vietnam. According to SIPRI, exports to these countries have already fallen by 34%, 39%, 54%, 83% and 91%.
2/ Russian occupation forces have suffered significant losses in manpower and equipment during their advance near Pokrovskoye in the Donetsk region. obozrevatel.com/ukr/location/u…
3/ As a result, the enemy is forced to bring in reserves for the offensive, possibly from other areas of the front. obozrevatel.com/ukr/location/u…
Trump is working too hard to fulfill his election promises and the media/bloggers are screaming at the top of their lungs that it will be a disaster for Ukraine.
It is now the same hysteria as when the Kremlin sent an old worn-out Oreshnik missile, so let's repeat the biggest myth of the Kremlin's propaganda that SO many have had instilled in their heads and it looks like it will continue to be instilled:
"Russia will win the war, either they win or it will lead to World War III.
Western military support for Ukraine worsens the situation and prolongs the suffering.
The only possibility for peace is to de-militarize Ukraine".
Let me also remind you of the other myth that the Kremlin continues to have high on its propaganda plate:
"Russia is at war with the West. - The war is in fact a proxy war against NATO being fought in Ukraine.
Russia is defending itself against Ukrainian attacks.”
2/ - These two myths are constantly repeated in the political circles of the far right and far left, also among MAGA fans in the USA as well as within the peace movement in the Nordic countries.
Now that the uncertainty with Trump is great, this myth is starting to play again at high speed.
There are many reasons why the result will not be as in the myths, but today I will concentrate on Trump.
Trump is much stronger today than he was during his first term, partly because his election victory was massive, both among the voters and the electors.
Putin, in turn, has never been as weak as he is today, with a war that is not going according to plan and an economy that is heading towards disaster.
These claims are agreed upon by the majority of analysts. Trump wants to maintain his advantage and is then faced with two options.
The first option is to give Ukraine everything it needs for a military victory and in return get the majority of the reconstruction work to American companies.
This market is in the billions and would provide a flourishing growth in the American economy
3/ "The other option is to force a fragile peace and thus keep the Kremlin on the carpet."
Then Trump has constant pressure on the Kremlin and, together with China, basically keeps the Kremlin as a vassal.
A vassal that outwardly looks strong but de facto must listen to what Washington and Beijing have to say, in other words, Russia ends up in a so-called "Finlandization."
Because a total military defeat for Putin means that his power is broken and he becomes free prey for those who are just waiting for their chance.
- Europe then?
Europe does not want to see any deterioration in its own position and is very afraid of maintaining its trade agreement, which is advantageous for Europe.
Trump will introduce tariffs on EU products that could hit the EU very hard. Regardless of which option he chooses, it is in Trump's favor.
Everyone analyzes every word of what he says and rambles around with one statement after another. Within the EU, people have actually started talking about ending the Russian gas embargo in the event of a possible peace.
- Where does this situation put Ukraine then?
@ZelenskyyUa knows that it is important to lubricate Trump with everything he can, which is why Zelensky has repeatedly assured Trump that he is prepared for peace negotiations.
Zelensky began this preparation for peace talks at the end of Biden's presidency, including by inviting the Kremlin to peace seminars.
Zelensky knows this game, he is an actor like Reagan was. In the end, however, it is Trump who chooses