BBN Profile picture
Jul 20 9 tweets 3 min read
1/9
In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.

$924k vs $1.824m
2/
Due to the way HMI's business cycle runs this is a theme that compounds as sales expand along with prices.

Meaning that if investors simply concentrate on cash on hand then they are misunderstanding how the business operates.
3/
This is can be proven by simply reviewing the Verde Agritech quarterly accounts once more.

For revenues Verde count the full price including freight which indicates that they are responsible for this. Unlike HMI which sells at the gate.
4/
Therefore we have the following,
(Period, sales price, sales, trade receivables at end of the period)
2021
Q1 = $50 @ 17,000 = $2.86m
Q2 = $56 @ 96,000 = $5.41m
Q3 = $69 @ 154,000 = $8.23m
Q4 = $81 @ 134,000 = $15.06m

2022
Q1 = $101 @ 112,000 = $17.62m
5/
So taking a couple of examples.

Q2 2021 generated $5.38m in revenues for Verde but there was a net $2.55m (so c. 50%) increase in trade receivables.

Q4 2021 generated $10.85m but trade receivables were up $6.83m or 63% of total revenues booked in the period.
6/
Some periods were far less than this and there could be many reasons as to why. Such as seasons, crop, credit lines, fertiliser costs etc.

What makes this comparison even more interesting is the difference between Australian and Canadian accounting.
7/
Verde books revenue once the product has been delivered to the customer.

HMI books sales at the point that a deposit is taken. Meaning there is potentially a longer period to wait to get paid because delivery may trigger some payments that aren't attached to harvesting.
8/
Despite having actually delivered the product to the customer Verde still has to book a significant portion of its revenues under trade receivables. Indicating and supporting HMI's own reporting that payments often follow credit cycles commonly seen within the industry.
9/
As I have demonstrated and argued previously the significant increase in sales and prices takes time to move through to the cash position.

But the cash will show itself significantly in the form of trade receivables which in the case of Verde is up over 500% in just 1 year.

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More from @BigBiteNow

Jul 22
1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa.
2/
Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.

Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
3/
Note also Syrah cannot produce for less than FOB C1 $543/t even at 15,000 tons per month output and that's fines.

It is clear after last night's presentation that TGR C1 costs have also risen but this is to be expected in this current market.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 21
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also. Image
2/
Note the 43% jump in forecast 2022 sales but that all of this rise is due to significant increases in Q3 and Q4 sales projections.

In fact, Q1/Q2 should actually deliver slightly less than was forecast originally.
3/
This forecast was adjusted on 3rd May and the Q3/Q4 forecasts are based on "committed orders and projected orders." Just like with HMI.

Verde sees itself delivering c. 62% more product in Q3 than originally projected on 10th Jan 2022. So inside 4 months.
Read 12 tweets
Jul 20
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review.
2/
Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.

So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
3/
Those that remember my 5th July numbers on #HMI sales prices will perhaps remember that they demonstrated a $53.20/t average sale price for 2021.

At the average achieved AUD/BRL for 2021 of 4.054, this equated to an average price of BRL216.

Read 18 tweets
Jul 5
1/7
Based on what I have just talked about if #HMI had received all the monies from its sales in 2021 then this would have amounted to $4.52m and the business would have been profitable at the operating level in 2021.
2/
What's more, the $4.454m paid out in 2021 reflects more accurately the true costs to run the business over the course of one year.

One cannot conclude exactly how much HMI produced in 2021 because the cash receipts reflect payment dates and not when the goods were received.
3/
Inventory was fairly minimal which reflects an operation that leans towards producing to order.

However, the costs associated with administration clearly eat up the vast majority of this with the consolidated statement accounting for c. $3.85m in the period.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 5
1/24
Lots of continuing confusion it seems around the #HMI accounts and the company's core profitability.

For me, this is in part driven by a desire to focus on the revenues when the focus should be on the cash flows

Here's my long thread opinion.
$ = AUD only.
2/
Firstly, it is important to appreciate that HMI wrote down AUD $600,000 in trade debtors on 31/12/21.

Also, "Some debtors are given industry standard longer payment terms which may cross over more than one accounting period," which helps create a difference between...
3/
sales and cash receipts in any given accounting period.

Note also that all trade debtors still fall within the current (within 12 months) trade and other receivables. The only non-current (more than 12 months) relates to recoverable taxes. So not direct sales related.
Read 26 tweets
Jul 5
1/4
Yes, a very good start with the key message that,

"Significantly, the three holes completed to date targeted the geochemical high, but the core of the magnetic high has yet to be tested."

The direction of the #SRB drill holes clearly demonstrates this.
2/
“This is a very promising time for Serabi and between this discovery, the excellent progress with the development of Coringa, improved production from the Palito Complex, and advancing all our high priority regional targets, we look forward to updating all our stakeholders.”
3/
I agree and such words about Palito help support the belief that June was another strong month. Meaning Q2 should have delivered levels of gold production that are in line with the guidance set at the start of the year.
Read 4 tweets

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