I think I know how the pandemic will end… and it’s not pretty.
A while ago I read a paper about how outbreaks end in animal populations.

It involved the population density becoming so low, that disease could no longer transmit efficiently.
In humans, this is likely going to mean that we will reduce our population numbers somewhat also, but we will not get to very small number, or extinction, because the remaining will do what is required to survive.

#VaccinesPlus
Essentially, we will make the pandemic end… and we can decide to start doing it now, while life is still relatively good, or much, much later… after poverty, disease, disability, and likely conflict have racked the foundations of our world.

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More from @NjbBari3

Jul 21
So, we want to “live with the virus”… is there any evidence of this occurring successfully anywhere?

Yes!

In bats… and it has taken 64 *million* years of evolution to get there.

😂

nature.com/articles/s4158…
It’s a really interesting article actually.

To “live with the virus” bats have better host defences, they don’t overdo inflammation and they can get rid of toxic compounds and deal with reactive oxygen species much better than humans.

They literally live with the virus.
In order for humans to “live with the virus” we would need to have similar mechanisms to permit SARS-CoV-2 to be part of our biome without causing all the autoimmune disease and other damage.

We would have to have fundamentally different biochemistry and immune systems.
Read 11 tweets
Jul 21
It’s interesting to see how many people think this thread is about animal or human extinction.

It’s not.

Its about reduced population density (in animals not humans) and learning advantageous behaviours.
It’s actually an optimistic thread.

I’m saying we will learn through experience how to control COVID-19.

The alternative is that we adopt a far shorter and more difficult life, and learn nothing, do nothing.
I don’t think that the next three generations will do nothing about COVID-19.

Not with what we already know about controlling it.

I could be wrong and we could be entirely robbed of intelligence and sentience. 🤣
Read 12 tweets
Jul 20
Australia.

Are you mentally capable of surviving a mask mandate in order to relieve pressure on the health system?

Last week a baby died waiting for help.

#auspol

cc @AlboMP
Australia’s PM thinks you all can’t handle it.

I think you can. I think you’ve handled worse in the past, and for longer.

I think you have community spirit.

I think you’ve always gone the extra mile to help someone in need.

#auspol
#maskmandate
Read 5 tweets
Jul 19
Cytotoxic T cells kill infected cells.

If you relied only on this mechanism, then you are hoping it can kill cells faster than they get infected (unlikely). Otherwise 👻.
Antibodies, especially neutralising ones, mop up virus for destruction before they get into cells.

You can see how this might be useful… seeing as the cells are *you*.
In reality, These systems work together, but the more virus you can kill without harming cells, the better.

This is one of the many reasons relying on “T cell immunity” especially the CD8 killer cell, is concerning.
Read 6 tweets
Jul 19
So we’ve got at least two pandemics and a government that is *still* picking apart the public health protections.

While you are mucking around in La La land talking about 5 day iso for a disease that has peak infectiousness at 6-9 days, monkey pox is emerging.
If you don’t start putting in the ventilation and mask practices that we need… your precious economy is about to tank.
(That, and ensuring we have vaccine supply.)
Yes, monkeypox can transmit in aerosol too… so stop mucking around spreading diseases and learn to control them.
We need to get every single ward in every single hospital capable of reducing airborne disease transmission.

Yes.

You heard me right.

All of it.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 16
OK… the following can all be true.

Infection can increase antibodies and T cell mediated immunity to infection.

T cell immunity can help fight infection.

T cell immunity can cause serious illness and kill you.

Infection can destroy your organs and reduce your lifespan.
It’s confusing.

How can infection both boost some parts of immunity (if survivor bias doesn’t explain it) but still kill you?

Well, the immune system is complicated… and immunity to COVID-19 is not the only thing to determine health and longevity.
It’s not as clear cut as “whoppee, look at how many specific T cells I’ve activated”.

The immune system is quite simply way more complicated than that.

COVID-19 super-antigen makes it more complicated again.
Read 4 tweets

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