Simon Usherwood Profile picture
Jul 21 7 tweets 2 min read
Let's run through Johnson's reflections on Brexit and how he 'got it done'

1/
questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem…
'Doing it' seems to refer primarily to achieving withdrawal from EU

TCA is mentioned, albeit gliding over all the things it stops in cooperation

The rest is about 'the opportunities'

2/
Those are:
- FTAs (which have almost all just been replacing ones that existed while EU members);
- freeports (which could have been done inside EU);
- agri/fish reforms (fair enough);
- immigration changes

3/
This last gets most space

ofc a 'points-based' system already existed for non-EU states before leaving EU, so all the examples listed could have been handled the same way

yes, controls now exist on EU nationals, but I leave it to others to discuss how that's going

4/
As for Rwanda, being inside EU would probably have further hindered viability of scheme, but equally being outside UK also has lost options in working w France on people smuggling

5/
And we can also note the absence of any mention of NIP problems, on-going issues over citizens' rights and the collapse of trust by the EU in British policy/intentions

6/
Overall, even given the freedom to write what he likes, Johnson comes up with a pretty thin package here, all resting on that operationalisation of the #EUref vote

/end

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More from @Usherwood

Jul 22
As expected, rapid passage of NIP Bill through Commons has triggered first formal responses from EU
Of course, part of British complaint over Protocol was overly-zealous implementation by EU. These procedures are exactly about UK being under-zealous, so London might reflect on whether this is all going to plan
Also, clear that EU is less likely to accept flexibilities if UK continues on this path, so closes down that path, pushing us into 'change the mandate' territory, which makes a damaging collapse in relations more likely

Bad for NI, and for EU-UK relations
Read 4 tweets
Jul 19
An important day for two of the most stalled accessions

Some data for you

1/
North Macedonia has spent 6058 days getting from candidate status in Dec 2005 to today's opening of negotiations

199 months

easily outstripping Malta's previous record of 84 months

2/
Albania 'only' took the 4 years to do the same, the fourth longest after N.Macedonia, Malta and Cyprus

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 18
Let's check to see what the record is on Retained EU Law (REUL), both across govt and in the Treasury, shall we?

1/
You'll recall that the govt set up a nice little REUL Dashboard last month, to help us see how they're tackling the issue

public.tableau.com/app/profile/go…

2/
Sadly, someone forgot to make it so you can see changes over time on this dashboard

So let's hope someone's got reminders in their diary to check periodically

3/
Read 15 tweets
Jul 12
A reminder that tomorrow is also first day of #NIPBill committee stage in Commons: will CON candidates use this as an opportunity to stake a claim as 'true Brexiters'? Is a vote enough, or do they need to speak on floor?

Lots of amendments too: bills.parliament.uk/bills/3182/pub…
Given the committee runs until 19th, might have to be a speech on floor to have any impact on MP rounds of voting

bills.parliament.uk/bills/3182/sta…
Key thing will be whether everyone feels they have to chip in (as a hygiene move) or just those who lack ERG's benediction

Note this also means risking dipping of hands into this particular bucket of blood, which will compromise any intent to rebuild trust w EU
Read 4 tweets
Jul 11
Best guess on how CON leadership contest affects Brexit

tl;dr probably aggravates EU relations in short run, certainly doesn't improve them longer-term

1/
Starting point is really bad relations right now: EU lacks trust in UK as good faith partner, NIP Bill continues through Parliament, long period of antagonistic rhetoric from govt

2/
None of candidates put Brexit centrally in their pitches, so it's more of a hygiene factor: show you're tough on this to please electorate (ie MPs), then move on

(also, some recognition that no-one wants to revisit all this)

3/
Read 12 tweets
Jul 7
Was thinking about this again today: if democracy is to have any meaning then we all have to actively be democrats and fight for its values and principles
If you can cast mind all the way back to yesterday morning, when Zahawi was doing the broadcast round and talking about 'delivery, delivery, delivery' as the focus from now on, it exactly failed to address the process failings of this govt
Outputs are all well and good, if you can get them, but if the means of reaching them looks (and is) suspect then you lose some of your broader legitimacy and make it harder to achieve anything in the future

[EU specialist here, so not unfamiliar with this]
Read 8 tweets

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