Between nine nonpartisan polls, a bevy of information on the ruling's unpopularity, a special election in #NE01, and fundraising data, I think we can say the Supreme Court abortion ruling has had at least a short-term electoral effect.
For @SplitTicket_: split-ticket.org/2022/07/21/has…
For @SplitTicket_: split-ticket.org/2022/07/21/has…
@SplitTicket_ As @NateSilver538 and @Nate_Cohn have both said, we really just do need more time. An effect might very well fade, but it is notable that seven of the nine nonpartisan polls of ≥ 800 RV/LV show a bounce towards Democrats. Combined with other data, that's not nothing.
Again, nobody is saying that Democrats will be winning the House, or even that the November environment will be Democratic. Absolutely nobody is saying this.
But a two point bounce is not nothing, and data from the last month shows there might actually be some effect.
But a two point bounce is not nothing, and data from the last month shows there might actually be some effect.
So give it time, and wait to see what it looks like after Labor Day, which is when the bottom has fallen out for Dems in 2010 and 2014. But what we're analyzing is whether there's been an immediate effect, even if it doesn't last. And I think it's fair to say there has been.
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