Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NE01

Most recents (20)

NEW from me @TheSpectator:

I’m at today’s long awaited @tiktok_us hearing, where the Communist spyware CEO is going to gaslight America

He’s now on on Cap Hill with a Socialist Congressman and a Biden-tied Mao lover's firm in his pockets…

(1/xx) Image
TikTok’s CEO is gearing up for a grilling in Congress, but he’s got some new, powerful allies in his corner: a political consulting firm whose founder lavished praise on Mao Zedong and is now one of Biden’s top aides — and a socialist congressman who……
Shou Zi Chew, the company’s CEO, is at @HouseCommerce, where Republicans are planning to press him on the national security concerns posed by the video app’s parent company ByteDance’s ties to the Chinese Communist Party.…

Read 97 tweets
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
No update to our nonpartisan generic ballot poll tracker this morning for @SplitTicket_, mainly because we have seen no new generic ballot polls (!). But I thought I'd take this thread to go through where our aggregator was at specific days, compared to 538 and RCP.
For the sake of transparency, I'll put up that we have data for our aggregate from June 1 onwards. The data is in the table, on our site. However, we only display the GCB from September 1 onwards in our graphic, which is around when the LV screens begin to hit polls. OK, now...
CA Primary (6/07):
@SplitTicket_: R+2.5
@FiveThirtyEight: R+2.2
@RealClearNews: R+3.4
Read 14 tweets
Very disturbing to see that Gov. Kelly and many political strategists have somehow taken the opposite lessons from the #KansasReferendum on #abortionrights. Voters showed up just weeks ago, in record numbers, to SUPPORT abortion rights. This issue CANNOT be sidestepped! 1/4
Since the #DobbsVJackson decision, Democrats have been punishing the GOP for their anti-choice extremism, regularly outperforming Biden’s 2020 margins in elections across the country, from #NE01 to #MN01 to #NY19. 2/4
Kansas is the ultimate proof-point that when abortion is on the ballot, young people, women, and people of color show up to protect it. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Following a slew of Democratic overperformances (#NY19, #NY23, #MN01, #NE01) and a polling surge for them post-Dobbs, we have some ratings changes @SplitTicket_ to announce.

#WISen: Lean R -> Tossup
#PASen: Tossup -> Lean D
#AZSen: Tossup -> Lean D…
@SplitTicket_ I'm not saying Oz can't win. Nor am I saying Masters cannot. I'm simply saying that you cannot create a credible case at the moment to say either of those two candidates is favored, and that's what you'd need to keep a race at a tossup. Rs have a chance, but Ds have the edge.
@SplitTicket_ I will not be moving NH until the primary. If Bolduc wins, #NHSen is Likely Democratic.

Anyways, I'm sure this will produce well-reasoned, good-faith discourse!
Read 4 tweets
House special election results since start of June:

#CA22 (6/7, Trump +5): R+24
#TX34 (6/14, Biden +4): R+5
#NE01 (6/28, Trump +11): R+5
#MN01 (8/9, Trump +10): R+4
#NY19 (8/23, Biden +2): D+2
#NY23 (8/23, Trump +11): R+7
But the caution flag on Dem overperformance? These have all been low-turnout specials decided by a fraction of November's likely electorate.

Here's special election votes as a % of total 2020 votes cast:

#CA22: 37%
#TX34: 14%
#NE01: 38%
#MN01: 32%
#NY19: 36%
#NY23: 23%
For context: last November, when Rs massively outperformed in NJ/VA, here was the turnout as a % of total 2020 votes cast:

NJ: 58%
VA: 74%

This isn't to say the enviro hasn't improved for Dems. It has. But specials can't tell us extent of improvement w/ the fuller electorate.
Read 3 tweets
If you're looking for another signal that there is a change in the environment, we have a second post-Dobbs special election in which Dems are set to outperform Biden's 2020 numbers. The first one was #NE01, where they outperformed by 6. In #MN01, it'll likely be by a couple.
Polling has shown a 2-3 point shift towards Democrats since the Dobbs decision, and that remains the single best indicator that there has been a change. But if you're looking for another sign because you're worried about nonresponse bias, then this is another confirmation.
For what it's worth, the difference between an R+4 and an R+1 year might be as many as 20 House seats and three Senate seats, depending on the scenario that pans out. Let's see how the rest of the cycle plays out and how the LV screens shift things after Labor Day.
Read 9 tweets
Between nine nonpartisan polls, a bevy of information on the ruling's unpopularity, a special election in #NE01, and fundraising data, I think we can say the Supreme Court abortion ruling has had at least a short-term electoral effect.

For @SplitTicket_:… Image
@SplitTicket_ As @NateSilver538 and @Nate_Cohn have both said, we really just do need more time. An effect might very well fade, but it is notable that seven of the nine nonpartisan polls of ≥ 800 RV/LV show a bounce towards Democrats. Combined with other data, that's not nothing.
Again, nobody is saying that Democrats will be winning the House, or even that the November environment will be Democratic. Absolutely nobody is saying this.

But a two point bounce is not nothing, and data from the last month shows there might actually be some effect.
Read 4 tweets
Lot of people in line this morning for the @NEGOP state convention today.
The registration line @NEGOP. Part expecting more than 600 delegates, alternates and family.
A lot of people in line were talking about this potential fight for the future of the party.

From the @NE_Examiner:…
Read 223 tweets

August comes before November.

After a surprisingly close Special Election in red #NE01, Democrats must pay attention to the 4 remaining Congressional Special Elections this summer.

Winning even 1 would be huge news for Team Blue.


Democrat - Jeff Ettinger (@SouthernMN4Jeff)
Election Date - 🗓️TUESDAY, AUGUST 9TH🗓️
Area - Southern Minnesota
Early Voting - Already underway!

This seat flipped red in 2018, and was only won by 3 points in 2020.

Democrat - Mary Peltola (@MaryPeltola)
Election Date - 🗓️TUESDAY, AUGUST 16TH🗓️
Area - Statewide
Early Voting - Begins August 1st

Ranked choice election.

Be sure to rank Mary Peltola first and Sarah Palin dead last!
Read 5 tweets
One random point: if you're of the opinion that the special election performance can be excused away because of Fortenberry's scandal dragging #NE01 Republicans down, that's a pretty big strike against the "Mike Garcia is favored because Christy Smith is a bad candidate" argument
When I modeled it, Smith's November 2020 performance came out as only a point below average. The counterargument I got (which made sense, even if I disagreed) was that Smith was responsible for Garcia's incumbency boost because she lost the earlier special after Hill resigned.
I disagreed because I thought COVID + Hill's scandal dragged Dems down enough in an ancestrally R seat to where it was a loss that was more explainable. Anyway, if you think the #NE01 special's shift is partly explained by scandal, it's worth revisiting your thoughts on CA-27.
Read 5 tweets
It's a Super Tuesday with a special House election in Nebraska, House GOP runoffs in Mississippi as well as primary elections in Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah.
Special #NE01 House election today to fill fmr GOP Rep. Jeff Fortenberry's vacant seat until end of 2022.He resigned March 31 after being convicted.Fmr NE Legislature Spkr Republican Mike Flood & Democratic State Sen Patty Pansing Brooks face off in both today's & fall elections.
Two House GOP runoff elections in MS today: 6th term #MS04 GOP Rep. Steven Palazzo,who is facing Ethics Cmte investigation for allegedly misusing campaign fund,& 2nd term #MS03 Rep. Michael Guest,who voted to create independent commission to investigate 1/6 attack on US Capitol.
Read 9 tweets
Here today in Lincoln for the @NEGOP’s unity rally,
I’ve already seen @GovRicketts. Didn’t take a photo in time. @CWHerbster is here.
I'll try to live tweet the 10a presser. (Fair warning, it can be a lot.)
Read 34 tweets
🤦‍♂️Several Nebraska Dems voted for the GOP's latest congressional gerrymander. Even though it isn't as bad as their map that split Douglas County, this one still makes #NE02 redder by putting the densest suburbs in Sarpy County with #NE01 & adding rural areas to the suburban #NE02
A more logical nonpartisan configuration would place Bellevue, which is the suburb nearest to Omaha's urban core, with #NE02 & make it even more urban/suburban, not less. This version would be 3-4 points bluer, which could make the difference in this hotly competitive district
I wonder if the GOP threatened to eliminate their filibuster rule & pass a more extreme gerrymander if some Dems didn't agree to this
Read 4 tweets
Back on the trail today in #Nebraska’s slice of the presidential race.
The @JoeBiden campaign is making its first in-person visit with surrogates to #Nebraska. They’re visiting a neighborhood that straddles both #NE01 and #NE02. The spouses of Biden and @KamalaHarris are hosting a discussion with veterans and military families near @Offutt_AFB.
They have arrived, @DrBiden and @DouglasEmhoff. They’re being introduced by Sarpy County Democratic Party chair and retired Air Force Master Sgt. Charlene Ligon.
Read 45 tweets
So it’s looking good to reach a top 5 primary in Nebraska.
Unlike some nights, the 8:45 p.m. release tonight in Douglas County could settle a lot of races, given how many mailed ballots people requested and returned by Monday.

I’ll be watching the gap in #NE02.

Updates from @OWHnews and @jeffreyrobb:…
Interesting to look down the ballot and see the Omaha street bond votes looking like they’re having a good night so far and some interesting races for Legislaure and county board looking like they could be fun.
Read 24 tweets
Barring misbehavior this weekend, I think I have put the finishing touches on the last two preview stories of this primary campaign. Thank you all for following along. And please ignore the thud and loud snoring on Wednesday.
For @NEGOP voters, there’s not a ton at the top of the ballot other than @BenSasse’s race with @InnisForSenate.

Read about that here:…
For @NebraskaDems voters there’s a little more choice on the menu, starting with a seven-way #NESen primary with a lot of new faces.

Here’s that story:…
Read 28 tweets
Newsday --- October 9th, 2018 --- Tues

Nov 6th, 2018
28 Days Until Mid-Terms

Daily Reminder That Democrats...

1- Are Socialists
2- Want your guns taken away and your family killed.
3- Protects millions of Mexican Illegals
who will hurt your daughters (Mollie Tibbetts)
Newsday --- October 9th, 2018 --- Tues

Nov 6th, 2018
28 Days Until Mid-Terms

Daily Reminder That Democrats...

1- Are Socialists
2- Want your guns taken away and your family killed.
3- Protects millions of Mexican Illegals
who will hurt your daughters (Mollie Tibbetts)
Newsday --- October 9th, 2018 --- Tues

Nov 6th, 2018
28 Days Until Mid-Terms

I am adopting "The Wictor Block" Rule:

Be smart/playful/sincere....Feels Good Man

You come at me too hard and aggressively....looking for a response:
I will Block and Move On.
Read 31 tweets
Hey #Nebraska!
Here's a THREAD of all your Democratic Candidates!
#NEPrimary winners
Photos, Websites & Voting Info Links!
Voter Registration Deadline October 19.
Register here…
#BlueWaveNE #VoteBlue
#NE01 #NE02 #NE03
#Midterms2018 VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Registration Deadline Oct 19
Printable Voter Registration Application:
County Clerks offices here:…
Check polling place here:…
#NE01 #NE02 #NE03
Any registered voter may apply for an absentee ballot & vote by mail
Request For Absentee Ballot by October 26, 2018
Absentee Ballot Return Deadline: November 6…
Read 12 tweets
Hey #NEBRASKA, you get to VOTE in #PRIMARIES on MAY 15, 2018!
#NE01 #NE02 #NE03
Here's a THREAD of all your Democratic Candidates!
Photos, Websites, Twitters & Info!
Voter Registration Deadline April 30, 2018
Register here…
Hey #NEBRASKA, you get to VOTE in #PRIMARIES on MAY 15, 2018
Registration Deadline April 30, 2018
Register here…
Where to Vote
#BlueWave2018 #BlueWaveNE
Registration Deadline Online April 30, Postmarked by April 30, In-person by May 4 at County Clerks offices here:…
Printable Voter Registration Application:
Check polling place here:…
Read 13 tweets

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