Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 – Jul 22 to Jul 28 – "Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!
Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE
& @SDSCdatascience

2/9 – Western Europe
Peaking in #COVID19 epid. activ or landing in most places, with increasing medium to high mortality.
- Increase/plateau in AU (R-eff=1.07); SE=1.08; DE=1.0/ CH=1.01;FL=1.0; DK=1.0; UK=0.98;IT=0.97;
- (Slow) landing in (NL=0.94); ICL; PT; SP; FR; LUX; IRL; BE.

3/9 – East-Central Europe
- Surge in #COVID19 epid activ: Pol (R-eff=1.32); Greece=1.32; Rom=1.30; Alb=1.23; Serb=1.30; Estn=1.40; Hung=1.18; Bulg=1.22;Lith=1.17;
- Rise in Cz=1.18; Latv=1.14; Croat=1.13; Slovk=1.13;Slovn=1.11;
- Very low to high mortality

4/9 – Africa
- Surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity in Tunisia=1.12, with medium mortality
- Green everywhere else, but lot of underreporting

5/9 – Middle-East
- Surge/rise in #COVID19 epidemic activity in Iran=1.39; Lebanon=1.32; Qatar=1.20/ Jordan=1.18;
- Cyprus=1.03, close to the region, is plateauing at high levels;
- Increase/landing in Iraq=1.09/ UAE=0.92; Israel=0.82;
- Reported as safe elsewhere
Image

6/9 – Asia & Pacific
- Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Japan (R-eff=1.34); SK=1.33; Fiji=1.14, very low mort.
- Rise/increase: Malaysia=1.15; [NZ=101/ Australia=1.09], very low [very high/high] mort.
- Slow landing in Taiwan=0.91, high mort.

7/9 – Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Most cities across China order on #COVID19 lockdowns (R-eff=1.14);
- Surge in Mongolia=1.40;
- Emerging #BA275 in India=1.04;
- Worrying (lack of) news from North Korea
- Apparently safe elsewhere

8/9 – North America
- Canada (R-eff=1.08) is surging in #COVID19 epidemic activity, high mortality. 87.6% >1 dose. Poor quality reporting from Provinces.
- USA=1.03 is plateauing, with medium mort. 79.3% >1 dose. Red everywhere, but orange in 4 states.

9/9 – Latin America
- Surge/rise in #COVID19 epid. activ.: Bolivia (R-eff=1.22); Paraguay =1.26; Peru=1.29/ Argentina=1.13;
- Increase/Plateau/landing: Guyana=1.06/ Colombia=1.03; Mexico=1.01; Brazil=0.96/ Belize=0.85; Chile=0.88;
- Very low - medium mort.

10/9 – Read forecasting for other countries by following
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 –
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0