Thread by @VivekVentures

Why ETH will flip BTC:

There are 900 BTC mined per day. At current prices, that’s ~$20mm to miners daily

Let’s assume miners sell 90% to cover costs. That’s ~$18mm in sell pressure *every single day*

Meaning, without ~$18mm of new daily buy pressure, BTC price goes down

(1/8)

What if that ~$18mm in daily sell pressure vanished - what would that do to BTC’s price?

Wouldn’t it naturally drift up with each marginal new buyer vs being constantly weighed down by daily sell pressure?

This is exactly what is going to happen to ETH after the Merge

(2/8)

Today, ETH has a similar story: 14,250 ETH issued to miners (+ validators) daily. That’s ~$21mm in potential daily sell pressure

(Technically less as validator block rewards can’t be sold yet, but let’s ignore)

*Post merge, the ~$21mm in daily sell pressure goes to $0*

(3/8)

Actually, in most cases, the net daily issuance goes negative, since enough ETH is burned (via EIP-1559 burning tx basefees) that more ETH is removed than issued

This means that there could be *net daily buy pressure* on ETH (without a dollar of external capital entering)

(4/8)

This is the argument for ETH’s economic sustainability

If removing all daily sell pressure from BTC would help BTC price, then it stands to reason that bringing net ETH issuance to zero (or negative) is bullish for ETH

There’s no more structural sell pressure post Merge

(5/8)

The Merge is coming; ETH will transform into an economically (and environmentally and game theoretically) sustainable asset - arguably moreso than BTC

@ryanberckmans has been championing this idea for years - I’m just rehashing (that’s a PoW pun):

https://twitter.com/ryanberckmans/status/1386505715938775044?s=21&t=ou5j3Vu_-ZYvx4QtDPGAIg

(6/8)

https://twitter.com/ryanberckmans/status/1386505715938775044

For more detail on what ETH will look like post Merge (including staking yields, user experience, etc), use this overview as a reference:

https://twitter.com/vivekventures/status/1545985708858302464?s=21&t=ou5j3Vu_-ZYvx4QtDPGAIg

(7/8)

https://twitter.com/vivekventures/status/1545985708858302464

Next key date for Merge watchers:

Aug 8-10 range for the final testnet (Goerli) to merge

If that goes well, we could be targeting a late September mainnet Merge

And then the crypto industry may be led by a new champion :)

$BTC $ETH #Ethereum #Bitcoin #Merge #Flippening

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