Jomini of the West Profile picture
Jul 24, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/ Ukraine SVKO, Day 124-148. Russian Strategic Aerospace Operations (SVKO) remains focused east of the Dnieper River, particularly in north central Donetsk Oblast and along the Black Sea Coast in the Odesa region. #UkraineRussiaWar Image
2/ Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have been conducting an extensive suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) campaign for the past 3-4 weeks here with little results. Air engagements between VKS & Ukrainian fights in the Odesa region has led to minor losses on both sides.
3/ It is likely the Russian MoD intends to severely weaken Ukrainian Air Defenses in the south to allow for VKS air & missile strikes to have greater latitude in interdicting the flow of military supplies from west Ukraine into the east.
4/ VKS & Ukrainian Air Force sorties remained focused on the Sloyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut Line of Operation with the Ukrainians still able to run intercept missions beyond the Russian forward line of troops.
5/ HIMARS have been successfully integrated into Ukrainian SEAD operations and have allowed for the effective targeting of Russian supply depots deep in the Russian Rear Area. Ukrainian HIMARS & UCAVs will continue to target Russian rear areas to impede Russian resupply.
6/ Russian aerospace forces will carry on their SEAD campaign in southern Ukraine while simultaneously continuing to strike Ukrainian logistical infrastructure to slow the forward deployment of Western weapon systems & new units along the front.

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More from @JominiW

Apr 7, 2023
1/ Ukraine TVD, 20 FEB-07 APR 23. The past 7 weeks saw a continuation of the Russian Winter Offensive as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. Russia made important gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines Image
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. The mud season will continue to impede maneuver, especially in severely restricted terrain. The weather favors small-scale assault forces. Night operations will continue to be difficult.
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you). ImageImageImageImage
Read 17 tweets
Feb 22, 2023
1/ Ukraine TVD, 8-19 FEB 23. The past 2 weeks of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive intensify as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. Russian made few gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
3/ Luhansk OD. Russian forces press their attack in the Kreminna area. Svatove has been reinforced by the 98th GABD, signaling a Russian intent to push toward Kupyansk soon. UKR forces will continue to defend in depth & transition to the offense when opportunities arise. #Luhansk
Read 14 tweets
Feb 10, 2023
1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-7 FEB 23. The first week of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive move into full swing as major pushes were made in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. The Russians made some gains but Ukrainian defenses held. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines Image
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you). ImageImageImageImage
3/ Luhansk OD. Svatove remains a critical pivot of operations for both sides. Action over the past week did not see major changes to the line of contact north of Novovodyane. To the south the Russians launched a sustained offensive out of Kreminna towards Yampolivka. #Luhansk Image
Read 16 tweets
Feb 1, 2023
1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-31 JAN 23. The first month of 2023 saw a determined effort by the VSRF to finally seize control of Bakhmut in central Donetsk, blunt ZSU advances in Luhansk, and expand territorial control in Zaporizhzhia. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines
2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions.
3/ Luhansk OD. This OD remains an important disruption zone for Russian & Ukrainian forces. For the ZSU, the Luhansk OD still presents the best opportunity for victory in the Donbas. Expect continued Ukrainian efforts to liberate Svatove. #Luhansk
Read 13 tweets
Sep 13, 2022
1/ UTVD Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in Kharkiv, 10-12 Sep 22. The past 48 hrs continues to see ZSU forces exploiting their breakout from the T2110 Hwy line between Balakliya & Semenivka. The resulting advance has caused the defeat of the SVRF in Kharkiv. Image
2/ The successful liberation of Kupyansk by ZSU forces on 10 September provided the necessary pivot of operations to turn the weak left flank of OGORF-V and attack to seize the decisive geographic points of Velyki Burluk & Vovchansk on 11 September 2022.
3/ The defeats in Kharkiv & Izyum has forced the Russians to form a defensive line along the Oskil River. The ZSU has achieved a major political objective, the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast. pointhttps://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1569243133925367809?s=20&t=dtlIhdkgAeudyYrl2G2Qvw
Read 5 tweets
Sep 10, 2022
1/ UTW – Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in the Donbas, 04-10 Sep. The ZSU is engaged in what may likely become the most stunningly successful counteroffensive since the IDFs OPERATION GAZELLE during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. #ukrainecounteroffensive #UkraineWillWin Image
2/ The ZSU has successfully utilized the concept & practices of reflexive control to create maneuver space for a division-equivalent force to penetrate, exploit, and breakthrough the dangerously vulnerable left flank and rear of the Operational Group of Russian Forces Izyum.
3/ By taking the time to properly shape the conditions for success, the ZSU has in one-week undone months of VSRF operational progress. As of the timing of this assessment, ZSU forces have already pushed further north into northern Kharkiv Oblast toward Velykyi Burluk.
Read 6 tweets

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